Joey Votto, 2016 Fantasy Baseball

When looking at 1st basemen based on 2015 statistics, it is easy to see this position is elite when it comes to Spread (again Spread= OBP minus AVG). In fact, the average Spread for all 1B who had over 400 ABs in 2015 was .081, which would be near elite at most other positions. Taking that figure into account, I will show you the risers, fallers, targets, and sleepers for this rather shallow position.

(Keep in mind, the format is 12-team 5×5 OBP)

The Risers:

PLAYER	TEAM	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	BB	AVG	OBP	SPREAD
Joey Votto	CIN	545	95	29	80	11	143	0.314	0.459	0.145
Carlos Santana	CLE	550	72	19	85	11	108	0.231	0.357	0.126
Paul Goldschmidt	ARI	567	103	33	110	21	118	0.321	0.435	0.114
Anthony Rizzo	CHC	586	94	31	101	17	78	0.278	0.387	0.109
Lucas Duda	NYM	471	67	27	73	0	66	0.244	0.352	0.108
Chris Carter	HOU	391	50	24	64	1	57	0.199	0.307	0.108
Miguel Cabrera	DET	429	64	18	76	1	77	0.338	0.44	0.102
Mark Teixeira	NYY	392	57	31	79	2	59	0.255	0.357	0.102
Mike Napoli	BOS/TEX	407	46	18	50	3	57	0.224	0.324	0.100
Chris Davis	BAL	573	100	47	117	2	84	0.262	0.361	0.099

Carlos Santana (15^th Round, OBP Value= 6^th Round)

Why is Carlos Santana a good fantasy option? “He gets on base a lot. Do I care if it’s a walk or a hit?” (Shitty Moneyball quote #2). In fact, Carlos Santana pondered retirement last year to be the lead doctor at a rehab center to teach people how to walk. I mean, this guy gets more steps in than when I strap my Fitbit to my dog for the day. Just how much does he walk? Well, let’s take a look:

Year	G	BB
2011	155	97 (6th)
2012	143	91 (5th)
2013	154	93 (5th)
2014	152	113 (1st)
2015	154	108 (5th)

Now I know Joey Votto might walk more, but in standard 5×5 leagues, Votto is still a legit 2^nd rounder. What makes Mr. Caaaloss Santanaaa great, and somewhat of a sleeper for OBP newbs, is that the one category that Santana kills you in (AVG) is nonexistent in this format. In fact, his .365 OBP is really, really good. Add that together and you have yourself a legit 6^th rounder in a position that lacks depth. Sadly, everyone who has a clue probably knows that Santana is a semi-beast in OBP style leagues as well.

The Fallers:

PLAYER	TEAM	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	BB	AVG	OBP	Spread
C.J. Cron	LAA	378	37	16	51	3	17	0.262	0.300	0.038
Hanley Ramirez	BOS	401	59	19	53	6	21	0.249	0.291	0.042
Mark Trumbo	SEA/ARI	508	62	22	64	0	36	0.262	0.310	0.048
Ryan Howard	PHI	467	53	23	77	0	27	0.229	0.277	0.048
Mitch Moreland	TEX	471	51	23	85	1	32	0.278	0.330	0.052
Jose Abreu	CHW	613	88	30	101	0	39	0.29	0.347	0.057
Justin Bour	MIA	409	42	23	73	0	34	0.262	0.321	0.059
Mark Canha	OAK	441	61	16	70	7	33	0.254	0.315	0.061
Albert Pujols	LAA	602	85	40	95	5	50	0.244	0.307	0.063
Eric Hosmer	KC	599	98	18	93	7	61	0.297	0.363	0.066

Jose Abreu (2^nd Round, OBP Value=3^rd)

First Base is hard to choose an ideal faller because nearly all are above average when it comes to getting on base (when compared to other positions). That being said, Mr. Abreu has yet to impress when it comes to taking walks. Which is especially surprising in a lineup that scored less in 2015 than me in my college years. Sure the addition of Todd Frazier might boost his power numbers, but don’t be too surprised to see Abreu’s OBP continue to hover around 60 points above his average. That spread alone shouldn’t scare you off enough to put him on your “do not draft” list, but it does drop him a peg or two. Abreu’s value shifts just a bit- from a middle of the 2^nd round pick to a middle of the 3^rd round pick.

The Target:

Lucas Duda (13^th Round, OBP Value=9^th)

If you owned Duda last year like me, you remember about a ten day stretch in particular where the dude(a?) hit literally like two bombs a day. And if you were like me, you made sure to annoy the absolute shit out of everyone in your league with terrible Duda puns, knowing that you only had about one week to bask in his glory. Well boys and girls, it’s time to bask in the Duda once again!

What makes Duda the target for you in an OBP league, is that he is someone everyone will forget about. As your friends draft the sexy names in the middle of the rounds, you do you, and stick with the numbers. And as far as number go, Duda slashed a .387 OBP in the months of August and September when he was playing alongside Yoenis Cespedes. That being said, you should be able to snag Duda with a 9^th or 10^thround pick, but it could be even later…

The Sleeper:

Chris Carter (Undrafted, OBP Value=22^nd)

Buyer beware…this guy was on my list last year too. In fact, good old Chris Carter is the worst baseball player I have ever loved (and I was a Royals fan thru the 2000s). With Carter, you pretty much know what you are gonna get…lots of terrible ABs, lots of power, and most importantly- lots of walks.

Just two years ago, Carter hit 37 home runs in 145 games played, proving that he does indeed have 40 HR power. The shift to the Brewers won’t help his RBI totals much, but it should solidify him with full time duties at 1B-something he didn’t have with the Astros.

Because I love blind tests, let me give you one. Here are average stats over the 2014 and 2015 seasons for two players:

Player A: 148 G, 28 HR, 89 RBI, .310 OBP

Player B: 137 G, 30 HR, 76 RBI, .307 OBP

Player A is Adam Jones, Player B is my main man, Chris Carter. And because he will only cost you a late round flyer, I am all-in on Tha Carter in 2016.