Yes, I think it’s at least a five-star title… out of fifteen, but that’s like 30% or something. Which is also bad, but it shows that I can do math at a very average and sorta-accurate level. MAYBE. It might come in handy here, or one would like to think so, only because if we’re talking baseball, we’re gonna be using numbers. Crazy, I know! And speaking of numbers and uneasy topic transitions, I present to you Taj Bradley, a player who really is one with his inner roller coaster.
And we’re not just talking numbers, but places, which I realize now I’m unprepared for as a non-geographic interpreter. We just make up stuff as we go along, or didn’t you know? But yeah, not only has Bradley had a season full of ups-and-downs on the mound, but he’s also been optioned twice to the minors and recalled thrice. While the past month and a half or so has been stable on that front, the mound continues to be a place where Bradley struggles to find consistency. But long term, that’s okay! The dude is still young at 22 years old and is obviously figuring it all out, but of course, his fastball and command are plus-pitches, and the raw athleticism is there.
What this specific content would like to do is gauge where his season is at right now and what we can expect for the rest of 2023, and if that has any value. Granted, the value is not spectacular to begin with, as Bradley is sitting at a 5.43 ERA in 61.1 innings over 13 starts, certainly not a death knell, but not really numbers you want anywhere near your platform. However, his 4.03 xERA and 3.98 FIP are trying to tell a different story. A lot of that is driven by three factors, a very nice 11.74 K/9, an equally nice and low-ish 2.79 BB/9, and a very bloated .348 BABIP. The absurdly different 3.34 xFIP kinda drives the point that everything kinda looks right, but the body of work is everything but.
While we have very little “hard” data, just the way your mother likes it, there’s really not any visible red flags in his numbers just yet. The profile basically tells us of a pitcher who can throw 96, has four pitches, and is able to get swing-and-misses in the strike zone, less so outside the zone. His CSW of 26.7% is also more encouraging than not. This is, of course, based on a very small sample of 60+ innings, but his minor league numbers kinda tell the same story. Bradley has generally sustained a K/9 north of 10 and a BB/99 south of 2.50. Compassing aside, his stability and steady (but slow) growth in the minors (sans this year, where he’s struggled in Triple-A) show a projectable and at the very least, a solid major league starter.
If there is a large gripe, I would say the statcast data does show that when Bradley gets hit, he gets hit hard, a 46.2 HardHit% for a 1.61 HR/9. Though, this may have been heavily affected by his 6/27 start against the D’Backs where he gave up four homeruns in just four innings. And I guess maybe that’s the rub and has been the entire time, because who doesn’t like BBQ? As I mentioned earlier, the up-and-down season for Bradley shows everywhere, especially in the game log where it’s a smattering of shutouts, eight-plus strikeout games mixed in with three-inning, four earned run mediocrity.
Amazing mixed with bleh? That’s what I guess being young is about and Bradley is nothing special in that regard. Obviously, we are seeing growing pains in real-time, but if you look at the stats, I think there’s a really great pitcher here. I mean, his last start might just be his season in a nutshell, as he grinded out five innings, allowing four earned runs, but just allowing five hits on a 43.8 GB% against a very tough Braves team. It’s not the results you want, but close enough to where you can convince yourself to hang on. Should you? As always, your mileage may vary, but I like what I’ve seen so far.
Yes, it hasn’t been perfect, but nothing really is. Cliche and sappy terms aside, the road will be bumpy, but Bradley has the ingredients to be an above-average pitcher and the Rays are desperate for rotation-anything. If you have a spot or can take a wait and see approach, I see no downside. If you need a starter and the options are similar, I’m leaning towards Bradley slightly. Rough around the edges, the strikeouts will help and his stamina should expand.
For what it’s worth, Steamer has him at a 4.08 ERA with a 9 K/9 and a .283 BABIP rest of season. Taj Mahurts? More like Taj MaI’mokaywiththat, am I right folks?
Jay is a longtime Razzball everything who consumes an egregious amount of Makers Mark as a vehicle to gain wisdom and augment his natural glow. Living in the D.C. area, he also likes spending time visiting the local parks and feeding lettuce to any turtles he encounters, including Mitch McConnell.
