A name as old as, well, I’m not exactly sure how old the name “Mitch” is, but it certainly colors a perfect picture of a 40-year-old something software “cubicle” engineer. And why someone would want to engineer cubicles, that’s not really the issue at hand, it’s just like, what, a bunch of three walls put together? But one Mitch Haniger has officially piqued my interest, and y’all know what that means! I am about to hem and haw, waxing poetic during a roller coaster of emotion and analysis (more crying than math, as I always say) on the pros and cons of this right fielder for the Seattle Mariners. And yes, while the season has begun (sorta-kinda-lol-Covid-sadface), and perhaps it’s a little late to pontificate on such matters, but I would make the argument it’s never too late to talk about these types of players. And do I mean about “these types”? Well, the fringe-types. But we’ll delve more into cubicles, math (oh god), and whatever random thing pops into my head. Abstract art, if you will…
| Year | HR | R | RBI | SB | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 26 | 90 | 93 | 8 | 137 |
| 2019 | 15 | 46 | 32 | 4 | 106 |
| Projections | 25 | 79 | 70 | 7 | 108 |
Recently covered in the Top 100 Hitters Watchlist (watching you watching me baby), Jeremy touched on some great points…
Mitch Haniger last played an injury riddled season in 2019 and unsurprisingly has an ADP over 250 in NFC leagues. Trusting a player that hit just .220 two years ago is really a ballsy move. However, that .220 in 2019 was driven by poor luck and when healthy he has shown 25-30 homer power with solid batting average upside.
Haniger is projected to hit atop a lineup that could be surprisingly productive in 2021. He has also looked fully locked in this spring hitting .275 with three long balls. I do expect the Mariners to handle Mitch with kid gloves as he appears to be made of glass, but at his draft price there is not much better upside to be found. – Jeremy Brewer.
I love what he said (typed?) here, mostly because he saved me the effort of how to start this post so I could apply more of my time to avoiding cardio, and also because he touches on several cogent points, something that is become a rarity around these parts. My parts. Now, before I get to my own hot take, I wanted to quickly expand on some of what Jeremy had established. Firstly, if you know me, you know I love injuries, but wait… I am no physical masochist (is that a thing? It must be, there was a whole movie about that one time where Paul Bettany whipped his own back to help Tom Hanks with something. Some kind of Linux code situation maybe), but injuries are an integral part of sports and ulcers of sports fans. But in this respect, if there’s a cheap way to add value to a player you dig, there’s no better way than Tonya Harding’ing them. Just one ‘ing, I checked. And then the cherry on top here is not just having sporadic play in 2019, but also completely skipping 2020, achieving a status we could only dream of. So yeah, color me shocked that the world has forgotten about him. If anything, we should have filed a missing persons report last season if we actually cared.
You want even more value? Jeremy made the point, and I’m going to expand on it baby. Expansion for all! Hitting .220 two years ago was, like stated above, a bit of poor luck. To see that though, let’s take a look at the numbers.
| YEAR | G | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 157 | 0.285 | 0.366 | 0.493 | 0.367 |
| 2019 | 63 | 0.220 | 0.314 | 0.463 | 0.326 |
| Projections | 134 | 0.243 | 0.331 | 0.455 | 0.329 |
So nothing new here, mirrors what we’ve been discussing. And while we’d normally have a 2020 area, obvious lack of data is obvious.
| YEAR | PA | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 683 | 10.2 | 21.7 | 0.208 | 0.336 |
| 2019 | 283 | 10.6 | 28.6 | 0.244 | 0.257 |
Now we’re getting to the good stuff. We definitely see some issues start to creep up between the two seasons. But what’s up with the ISO? Well, as we start to move further down (hey now), we’ll get some bearing on what’s happening.
| YEAR | LD% | GB% | FB% | HR/FB |
| 2018 | 21.3 | 42.4 | 36.3 | 15.8 |
| 2019 | 20.4 | 34.7 | 44.9 | 20.0 |
As you can all see, Haniger’s FB% went bonkers (technical term) and because of that, his HR/FB ballooned, and with it the ISO increase we saw.
| YEAR | Soft% | Med% | Hard% |
| 2018 | 16.0 | 46.8 | 37.1 |
| 2019 | 21.0 | 43.7 | 35.3 |
This is a bit of a segue, but sometimes issues unmask themselves in power profiles. Now something to ponder, you’ll notice that in the epoch of injury, starting in 2019, his soft percentage and hard percentage flipped a bit, bizarre when you consider his penchant for forcing the ball out of the park by hitting the ball in the air.
| YEAR | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | Swing% | SwStr% | Zone% |
| 2018 | 25.9 | 62.5 | 41.8 | 9.2 | 43.4 |
| 2019 | 24.9 | 63.8 | 42.5 | 10.9 | 45.3 |
And this is where we worry the most about batting profiles and not a worry to be seen. I just love the fact that this is where Mitch is most stable. Think about it, throughout such a young career, one with already a bunch of tumult, and you see that he’s not swinging differently, he’s not chasing, he’s seeing the ball and reacting to it on a consistent basis. And his judgement remained unaffected for the most part, and I think this is a key indicator moving forward.
| YEAR | O-Contact% | Z-Contact% | Contact% |
| 2018 | 61.1 | 87.1 | 78.0 |
| 2019 | 53.6 | 83.8 | 47.1 |
Okay, well, last but not least are where the problems lie. Well, I mean, we already knew that the problems laid with his injuries, but a point I want to make is that this is where his batting falls apart. His contact went from cool beans to, well, not so cool beans? I had no idea where I was going with that, but maybe I’m just hungry. Look, you may say great Jay, thanks for letting me know Jeremy was right and that he was injured. True! But hopefully going through the numbers, I have provided something else, and that’s the idea that the injuries were the only thing holding him back.
And I’m not going to over-hype here, I don’t think Haniger will take the league by storm and go 35/15 or something crazy, but let’s assume that his profile changes were from injury or over-compensation from that injury. A hitter that could easily put up a .270/.340/.465 has immense value contextually from where you might find him at the moment, whether that be a fringe asset in one person’s league, to a highly sought-after project in another, just keep an eye on Mitch if you cannot partake and try to see if he fits on your team. Being thrust into a lead-off role I think can only help him rely on the same skills he did when he was injured. And I expect so much more now that he’s healthy.
Jay is a longtime Razzball everything who consumes an egregious amount of Makers Mark as a vehicle to gain wisdom and augment his natural glow. Living in the D.C. area, he also likes spending time visiting the local parks and feeding lettuce to any turtles he encounters, including Mitch McConnell. You can follow him @jaywrong, or read his rarely (like never) updated blog Desultory Thoughts of a Longfellow.
