Last week, I discussed 4 players whose 2025 season has not gone as they – or their drafters – had hoped. But because their draft price may be depressed this year, there might be profit to be made by drafting them despite the bad year. With established players still in their prime (or younger), a downturn year is often followed by a year in which the players regress (in this case, positively) back closer to their career norms.
Today, I’ll take a look at another tendency of drafters: a willingness to overpay for a big year, or, even worse, for a player in a bounceback year. To that end, I’ll discuss 4 players who have either outplayed their last season draft prices by significant margins or, at the very least, demonstrated a skill (or two) that drafters are often willing to pay up for.
The 4 players I’ll discuss: Bo Bichette, Oneil Cruz, Geraldo Perdomo, and Brice Turang.
Let me make it clear: I like all 4 players — a lot. In a perfect world, I would absolutely draft them. But a perfect world means that I must like the player for the price it costs to get him. That’s where things may get tricky in the upcoming draft season.
The projection systems I’ll be using are two of my favorites for hitters:
- Razzball preseason hitter projections, preseason auction value projections, and the year-to-date Player Rater
- BatX preseason hitter projections and preseason auction value projections, along with the Fangraphs Player Rater
As usual, all stats are as of the end of day, Tuesday, 8/27. As I did last week, I have taken each player’s current YTD stats and extrapolated them to a season-long pace. This time, I added 100 PAs of extrapolation (last week, I did 110 PAs) to come to those final pace-based numbers.
Bo Bichette
Bo Bichette entered the 2024 offseason after a disappointing season of only 81 games, with a stat line of a .225 AVG, 4 HR, 29 R, 31 RBI, and 5 SB. As such, his ADP dipped from previous years’ R3-R5 cost to a price in the 130s for much of the drafting season. Eventually, his stock grew somewhat as he proved during Spring Training that he was healthy, getting him up to the 110s. But considering his normal draft cost, his price was undoubtedly a steal.
The risk drafters feared was real. Is Bichette just a walking injury waiting to happen? Admittedly, that was my concern after injury after injury seemed to keep him from being consistently available to play, so I didn’t find myself clicking on him very often. I knew the price was too good to pass up, but I still somehow managed to pass it up more times than not. Oops. I had him ranked 20th in preseason middle infielder ranks, and I spent much of draft season hoping he would dip into the 150s where I expected to pounce. His ADP fall wasn’t quite that pronounced, though, so I ended up with just a few shares.
Projection systems were a little low on Bichette as well, I suspect, for the same reasons I was. Projections had him picked to be a good and useful player who had a decent chance to provide some value over his draft price, but not as someone who was going to have a major impact.
Preseason Stat Projections:
| G | PA | AVG | HR | R | RBI | SB | |
| Razzball | 142 | 608 | .273 | 18 | 79 | 71 | 10 |
| BatX | 139 | 600 | .272 | 14 | 71 | 67 | 11 |
| **Hitter Rank | Auction $$ | |
| Razzball projections | 44 | 16 |
| BatX projections | 77 | 9.2 |
**Projected hitter rank is based on auction projections.
If you were smarter than I was – and got yourself to do what seems obvious now: draft the guy – you are benefiting nicely. In 2025, he has outperformed his projected numbers already, with a month of the season left to go, earning drafters a healthy profit of at least $5-$10, if not more.
Year-to-Date Player Rater:
| YTD $$ | YTD Hitter Rank | |
| Razzball | 21.50 | 35 |
| Fangraphs | 22.56 | 26 |
2025 YTD:
| G | PA | AVG | HR | R | RBI | SB | |
| 2025 Actual | 130 | 586 | .306 | 16 | 71 | 84 | 4 |
| Ext + 100 | 686 | 19 | 83 | 98 | 5 |
Now, as we head into the 2025 draft season, I’m very interested to see what happens with his price. I love the things Bichette offers: AVG, R, RBI. He also chips in a HR total in mid- to upper-teens, which is fine if you build your roster to account for a hitter who isn’t a plus in HRs. But before we get too excited about Bichette’s season, it’s worth taking a closer look at where and how he improved. In looking at his 3 previous years of stats before this year, it looks to me like the guy we see this year is kind of the guy we should have expected of a healthy Bichette:
Previous Stat Totals:
| Previous 3 yrs | G | PA | AVG | HR | R | RBI | SB |
| 2022 | 159 | 697 | .290 | 24 | 91 | 93 | 13 |
| 2023 | 135 | 601 | .306 | 20 | 69 | 73 | 5 |
| 2024 | 81 | 336 | .225 | 4 | 29 | 31 | 5 |
Comparing his extrapolated 2025 numbers to his last two healthy seasons, the numbers look like a reasonable midpoint between those years. His underlying numbers this year show what his surface stats show: He’s still Bichette. The only major changes I see are a BABIP that was up 69 points to .338 – which is back to his career norms. His BB% is actually down 4.5%, so it looks like maybe he’s being a bit more aggressive at the plate. Otherwise, everything is what Bichette always does. Contact, LD, GB, FB, K: these are all right in range of career norms. He has picked up his HH% by 6 points, a sign, along with his lower walk-rat,e that suggests he’s trying to do more damage per PA. But that is resulting in AVG, which we should have expected of him anyway.
I’m hoping that drafters see his numbers and don’t get crazy excited. If Bichette has a nice draft price just south of a 100 ADP, I’ll be all over that cost. I’m concerned, though, that most drafters will see a Bichette that is doing something different instead of being exactly who he has always been. So I expect his cost to be closer to R5 or R6, and I’m not ready to go there.
Oneil Cruz
Have I mentioned that I love Oneil Cruz? This guy is so exciting to watch play, but he’s also incredibly frustrating to roster. He got off to a monster start to this season, leading me to dream of a possible 30/50 season. I 100% believe he’s that kind of player – if everything goes right.
Projection systems were a bit more reserved in their expectations, but they predicted a very good player:
Preseason Stat Projections:
| G | PA | AVG | HR | R | RBI | SB | |
| Razzball | 148 | 622 | .251 | 24 | 75 | 79 | 19 |
| BatX | 143 | 609 | .251 | 28 | 85 | 83 | 23 |
| **Hitter Rank | Auction $$ | |
| Razzball projections | 30 | 19.4 |
| BatX projections | 21 | 26.2 |
**Projected hitter rank is based on auction projections.
And Oneil Cruz is a very good player, but he’s also an incredibly raw player who is in a lineup for an organization that doesn’t care about putting a good product on the field. His surface stats for 2025 reflect a player who can do amazing things for you – while at the same time absolutely sinking a couple of your categories:
Player Rater:
| YTD $$ | YTD Hitter Rank | |
| Razzball | 11.5 | 68 |
| Fangraphs | 9.60 | 84 |
2025 YTD:
| G | PA | AVG | HR | R | RBI | SB | |
| 2025 Actual | 109 | 459 | .205 | 18 | 59 | 52 | 34 |
| Ext + 100 | 559 | 22 | 72 | 63 | 41 |
Despite Cruz’s inconsistency, Steve Weimer drafted him at pick 30 in the Rob DiPietro’s Meatball Draft that I referred to last week. I don’t pretend to be in Weimer’s league as a fantasy player, but I was seriously surprised by the pick (the pick was slightly above Cruz’s preseason draft ADP from last year).
So I took a closer look at his numbers to see what I was missing. His previous 3 seasons show a player with big-time potential:
Previous Stat Totals:
| Previous 3 yrs | G | PA | AVG | HR | R | RBI | SB |
| 2022 | 87 | 361 | .233 | 17 | 45 | 54 | 10 |
| 2023 | 9 | 40 | .250 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 |
| 2024 | 146 | 599 | .259 | 21 | 72 | 76 | 22 |
But his underlying stats scare me. Let’s start with his 2025 BABIP of .266. That is down from his .347 in 2024, which was up from his .292 in his very short 2023 season, which was down from his .317 in 2022. See what I mean? I have no idea what to expect of that number moving forward.
I do know what to expect of his hard hit data: insanely good. His HH-rate is a just silly 57.6% this year, his Barrel% is up almost 4 points, his EV is 96.4 mph, and his max EV is a frightening 122.9 mph. This guy can crush the ball. His .232 xBA demonstrates that he can also miss the ball a lot. His K-rate is up this year from an already-ugly 30.2% to 31.8%. Yikes. His walk-rate is actually up 3.5 points, but I wonder if that’s a new trait or a blip from a player who is relying on feel, not any type of plan when he’s up at the plate. His FB% is up 3.5 points as well, so maybe he’s settling into a HR-worthy swing, but he took most of that improvement from his LD%, dropping it 2.3 points. His Contact-rate (67%) and Z-Contact rate (78.5%) are both at career norms, and those norms are not promising.
A player like this scares me to no end. I want to take a risk and draft him because of his upside (and, honestly, Weimer’s Meatball Draft pick has me questioning myself on Cruz). But I also want a discount because of his downside. His hard hit and SB numbers tell me that somebody in my draft is probably going to be willing to take the risk in R2 or R3, which I’m just not going to be able to convince myself to do.
Geraldo Perdomo
Who saw the Geraldo Perdomo breakout coming? The answer is no one. His ADP prior to this season was in the 450s. Seriously, nobody believed in Perdomo. I actually drafted a good number of shares, but not because I foresaw his monster season. I just knew he would get lots of playing time (his new contract in the preseason said so) and would be able to provide some SB help, so at 450 in a 50-round draft and hold, why not?
Projection systems were fairly consistent in their expectations:
Preseason Stat Projections:
| G | PA | AVG | HR | R | RBI | SB | |
| Razzball | 132 | 469 | .250 | 6 | 54 | 42 | 14 |
| BatX | 130 | 521 | .232 | 8 | 59 | 39 | 14 |
| **Hitter Rank | Auction $$ | |
| Razzball projections | 199 | -3.2 |
| BatX projections | 217 | -15.1 |
**Projected hitter rank is based on auction projections.
I would have agreed completely with the general ballpark of both systems’ numbers. See the projected steals? See the projected everything else. Yeah, me too.
But as we know, Perdomo has been a revelation to anyone who drafted him or picked him up on an early-season waiver wire. Check out these numbers:
Player Rater:
| YTD $$ | YTD Hitter Rank | |
| Razzball | 28.1 | 15 |
| Fangraphs | 27.57 | 12 |
2025 YTD:
| G | PA | AVG | HR | R | RBI | SB | |
| 2025 Actual | 132 | 587 | .291 | 14 | 82 | 86 | 23 |
| Ext + 100 | 687 | 16 | 96 | 101 | 27 |
No way did I foresee Perdomo being a top 15 hitter. So the question becomes: was this season real? His previous 3 seasons do show some growth in AVG and demonstrate that he might be a decent source of runs to go along with his SB. But this year is completely above anything we could have reasonably expected.
Previous Stat Totals:
| Previous 3 yrs | G | PA | AVG | HR | R | RBI | SB |
| 2022 | 148 | 500 | .195 | 5 | 58 | 40 | 9 |
| 2023 | 144 | 495 | .246 | 6 | 71 | 47 | 16 |
| 2024 | 98 | 388 | .273 | 3 | 61 | 37 | 9 |
There are, however, some promising numbers under the hood. His K% is down 3.7 points this year while his BB% is up 4.5 points. Does that indicate more patience at the plate? His contact numbers are essentially the same they’ve always been, across the board. So does that mean the BB- and K-rate improvements are a mirage? His HH-rate is up 5.4%, which is a nice jump, but the number he’s UP to is a whopping 31.2%. A power hitter, the man is not. His EV of 87.9 mph is OK, but nothing special. That number does reflect an improvement of nearly 1 mph, so that’s something, right?
If you’re confused as to how he’s achieved this breakout season based on those underlying stats, I’m with you. There is one number that really interests me, though. His LD-rate is up 4.4%, and he’s taken that 4.4% from both his FB-rate (down 1.2 points) and his GB-rate (down 3.1 points). Hmm, I kind of like that. Has he decided to go with his strength, which isn’t physical strength but is instead just a really good plate approach?
See, here’s the thing: top-15 hitters get drafted really high the season after being a top-15 hitter, and there just isn’t enough Perdomo has changed to make me think he’s an obviously star-level player now. If drafters don’t get too crazy and keep him around ADP 100-120, I’d probably be willing to take a shot to see if this season was real. But I have a bad feeling he’s going to be going in the Jose Altuve-range, which is more like the mid-60s. I may miss out on a budding superstar, but I’m just not ready for that kind of price.
Brice Turang
No doubt about it – I was wrong on Brice Turang. I had him ranked at what now seems to be an obscenely low 27th in my preseason middle infield list. My rationale was he’s a SB guy but wouldn’t offer much AVG help and was good for only 6-8 HRs. Based on projection systems, perhaps my initial read of Turang wasn’t too insane. Take a look at these two lines:
Preseason Stat Projections:
| G | PA | AVG | HR | R | RBI | SB | |
| Razzball | 144 | 550 | .250 | 9 | 60 | 49 | 34 |
| BatX | 139 | 564 | .243 | 6 | 64 | 44 | 34 |
| **Hitter Rank | Auction $$ | |
| Razzball projections | 103 | 6.5 |
| BatX projections | 144 | -3.7 |
**Projected hitter rank is based on auction projections.
Both Razzball and BatX seemed to feel reasonably similar to how I felt about the kind of stats Turang would provide, and I just didn’t think those stats justified a pick in the 120s (which was where I was routinely seeing him get picked). Well, I lost out on that one: Turang has been great, yet I think I have him in only one league. Not great.
How good has Turang been? I’m almost embarrassed to show you:
Player Rater:
| YTD $$ | YTD Hitter Rank | |
| Razzball | 23 | 25 |
| Fangraphs | 20.98 | 31 |
2025 YTD:
| G | PA | AVG | HR | R | RBI | SB | |
| 2025 Actual | 127 | 535 | .285 | 15 | 81 | 67 | 22 |
| Ext + 100 | 635 | 18 | 96 | 80 | 26 |
So, my bad. Not only was Turang not just a help in AVG – he was a plus. And he wasn’t interested in hitting only 6-8 HR. Add that to the fact he is scoring tons of Rs in the Brewers lineup, which, as usual, is way better than that ownership group deserves.
This is one of those times when I feel like I’m not a dunce for saying this came out of nowhere. Even drafters who were willing to pay a R11 price for him didn’t see the power coming. And why would we? His previous 2 seasons gave us no indication of this being a possibility:
Previous Stat Totals:
| Previous 2 yrs | G | PA | AVG | HR | R | RBI | SB |
| 2023 | 137 | 448 | .218 | 6 | 46 | 34 | 26 |
| 2024 | 155 | 619 | .254 | 7 | 72 | 57 | 50 |
And now the obvious question: Is the Turang breakout real? And my answer is: Yeah, I think it’s real. He’s a different player this year, and I think he can sustain this new level based on the changes he’s made.
In my April 17th article reviewing the 2B position after the first 7 weeks or so, I was already inching toward the Brice Turang hype train:
I have been lukewarm on Brice Turang from the beginning of the season – I just can’t shake the idea that he offers basically one carrying skill. But, whoa, he is smacking the ball with a completely different level of authority than he has in the past. Though I still have doubts, his power metrics are through the roof, especially compared with last year’s version of Turang. And his plate discipline metrics seem not to have been impacted in a way that is super concerning. His K% is up 4.5%, but that means he’s up to a completely reasonable 21.5% K%. His BB% is down to 5.1%, but he was at only 8.1% before. He’s clearly selling out for power (at least to some extent), but his Contact% and Z-Contact% are both still quite good. He hasn’t dropped enough in those areas to look like his new aggressive approach is hurting him to the extent that it’s clearly helping him. And his Statcast page is bright red. I’m still hesitant to buy in, but I’m getting there. I need a month to see if the changes stick, but I’m starting to think they may just be a new version of him.
This just in: He kept his new approach for that month I needed, and then the month after that, and the month after that, and the month after that. OK, sold. To be fair, his numbers have not been consistent throughout the season: he has spent some time (May, June, and July in particular) looking like a return to his old self was possible. But his August numbers have been ridiculous, showing us that the new power stroke is still in there.
His season-long hard hit metrics are extremely impressive. His HH% is up an absurd 16.6% this year to a power-hitter-worthy level of 46%. His EV is up 3.8 mph to 90.8. His maxEV is up 2.4 mph to 110.2. His Barrel% is up more than 5 points.
And as we might expect, this new approach has come at a cost in terms of contact metrics: His Contact% is down 6.8 points, but is still a solid 81.1%. His Z-Contact% is down 4.3%, but down to a number that remains in the 90s (92.2%). His K-rate is up for the season, but it’s almost identical to the early-season 21.5% that I discussed in the April 17th article (he is currently at 21.9%). His BB% is up 1.1% despite all of the obvious changes he has made to add some power: a 9.1% BB-rate is not elite by any means, but I’ll take it. And to top it all off, he has reduced his GB% and increased both his FB% and LD%. This looks like a wholesale, intentional rebuilding of his swing. And I’m in for it.
But how high will excited drafters push him this coming year? With the numbers he’s provided, I can see a R3 price being possible. I think his changes are real, so I’m willing to pay at a level that might make me uncomfortable. But I don’t know if I can get to a R3 price. In the recent Meatball Draft, the helium had somehow not hit Turang: he went at pick 135. But as I’ve said, every fantasy player in that draft was a high-level, competitive, high stakes player. Those types of fantasy players can look at Turang’s power swoon in May, June, and July (3 HRs total in that time) and draft with a disciplined, restrained approach that prices in concerns his new power stroke may not be a consistent trait yet. But I sure wouldn’t expect Turang to drop to 135 for most drafts that don’t involve high stakes players. It would be easy to look at his surface stats, be convinced that Turang is a new star-level player, and click that draft button in R3 or R4.
If, however, drafters get a little nervous and let him drop to R5 or R6, I’d definitely be interested in taking a shot. We’ll see if I get the chance to take it.
That’s it for this week. I hope the desire to draft hasn’t hit you as hard as it has hit me. I might need an intervention soon.
Until next week. – ADHamley
Oneil was so good in April. And now he’s droppable. It’s really weird. I hope he gets traded in the off season to a team with a hitting coach.