Looking Ahead To Offseason Drafts: 4 Likely Discounts I’m Looking Forward To

As I’ve been reading articles and listening to podcasts lately, quite a few in the “industry” are starting to turn to next year’s draft. I’ve seen and heard multiple lists of expected R1 and R2 picks, and some have even started predicting how things might look later in the draft. In reality, it’s probably a little too early to start looking seriously toward next season, but that’s what fantasy degenerates do.

On the serious side, thinking through where players are likely to be picked this coming year compared with where they were picked this last year is an extremely valuable exercise in terms of finding potential value to profit from next year. If we can predict an approximate ADP for certain players, we can already determine if those players are going to be interesting to us based on cost. Fantasy leagues are won through the simple act of getting more value for a pick than the ADP would suggest. So let’s prepare to win some leagues by taking a look at 4 players who (I think) will be relative discounts next year, especially in considering their likely performance next year, which I would expect to include some positive regression back toward their standard performance level (with the possible exception of Matt McLain – see below).

The 4 players I’ll discuss: Bobby Witt, Gunnar Henderson, Willy Adames, and Matt McLain.

Each of the above players has had a “disappointing” season based on preseason projections, so it’s reasonable to expect a draft price drop for next year. Whether you can find those values early in the draft (as with Witt and Henderson), mid-draft (as with Adames), or late in the draft (as with McLain), value is value. And value wins. Let’s go find it.

 

The projection systems I’ll be using are two of my favorites for hitters:

• Razzball preseason hitter projections, preseason auction value projections, and the year-to-date Player Rater
• BatX preseason hitter projections  and preseason auction value projections, along with the Fangraphs Player Rater

 

Bobby Witt Jr.

In looking at Bobby Witt’s preseason projections, it’s no wonder he was going in the top 2 of most drafts. I said during the preseason he was my #1, even above Shohei. Probably not the best call, but it was the call I made.

Preseason Stat Projections:

	G	PA	AVG	HR	R	RBI	SB
Razzball	151	650	0.289	27.8	96.6	87.7	34
BatX	151.132	658.297	0.297495	31.7117	107.827	97.3512	38.8725

 

	**Hitter Rank	Auction $$
Razzball projections	2	39.8
BatX projections	2	59.2

**Projected hitter rank is based on auction projections.

Both Razzball and BatX had Witt ranked as their #2 hitter, so perhaps my call in putting Witt at #1 doesn’t look terribly stupid. Admittedly, though, it hasn’t worked out as well as I’d hoped, but it’s worked out in a way that hasn’t killed my teams. Witt has been good this year, just not great as I expected:

Year-to-Date Player Rater:

	YTD $$	YTD Hitter Rank
Razzball	31.9	9
Fangraphs	27.7	8

 

2025 YTD:

	G	PA	AVG	HR	R	RBI	SB
2025 Actual	124	540	0.291	18	79	69	32
Ext + 110		650		22	95	83	39

 

Below the “2025 Actual” line, I’ve extrapolated Witt’s performance if he continued to perform at exactly the same level for the next 110 PAs (which is around a month+ worth of PAs for most everyday players). With that extrapolation, Witt would be on pace to finish with a very helpful season, but his HRs, Rs, and RBIs are probably lower than his drafters would have hoped.

As a result, I’ve heard folks in the “industry” predicting that he would go around mid-R1 (somewhere in the area of pick 5 to 9). If that’s when Witt is going to be drafted next year, I’m 100% in. Looking at his previous 3 years of results will tell you why:

Previous Stat Totals:

Previous 3 yrs	G	PA	AVG	HR	R	RBI	SB
2022	150	632	.254	20	82	80	30
2023	158	694	.276	30	97	96	49
2024	161	709	.332	32	125	109	31

 

One of the most dependable bits of data in terms of making projections for the next season is recent performance over a significant period of time (3 years seems to qualify). The last 3 years demonstrate obvious improvement to superstar level achieved in 2024. So his 2025 was probably just a blip. I would have every expectation that Witt closes in on numbers around a .285 AVG, 30 HR, 100+ R & RBI, and 30 SB next season. If I’m sitting at pick 5 or 6 in a draft next year and Witt is still there, the pick is a no-brainer. In R1, a 4-5 pick discount is worth $$ – in terms of projected auction value, we’re talking a profit of somewhere between $5 and $15. OK, I’ll take that.

It’s worth pointing out that in last night’s (Wednesday, 8/20) Meatball Draft Champions draft (a draft and hold of 50 rounds that includes some of the absolute best fantasy players in the game), Bobby Witt went 3rd to Rob Dipietro. You may know Rob’s name from his podcasts and articles analyzing players. I know of him because he’s one of the most successful Draft Champions players of the last 5 years, even bringing home an overall title netting several thousand $$ in winnings. The fact that he’s picking Witt 3rd tells me everything I need to know. If drafters in your leagues (which likely don’t include players who have won overalls) are letting Witt fall to mid-R1, pick him.

 

Gunnar Henderson

I was almost as high on Gunnar Henderson in the preseason as I was on Witt. And, as with Witt, looking at Henderson’s projections makes it obvious why I would be:

Preseason Stat Projections:

	G	PA	AVG	HR	R	RBI	SB
Razzball	146	640	0.268	30.3	101.5	83.9	16.3
BatX	141.834	619.701	0.269559	29.0385	92.2101	85.6637	14.9336

 

	**Hitter Rank	Auction $$
Razzball projections	10	30.9
BatX projections	15	31.5

**Projected hitter rank is based on auction projections.

I actually felt fairly confident Gunnar would outperform those projections in Rs and RBIs at the very least, but likely HRs and SBs as well. I had no problem picking him top 5, which, um, hasn’t quite worked out. Injuries got him off to a slow start, and the fact that the Orioles are terrible this year hasn’t helped. Even with the downturn, though, Henderson has put in a season that hasn’t destroyed you if you picked him high, but it sure hasn’t helped:

Player Rater:

	YTD $$	YTD Hitter Rank
Razzball	17.4	47
Fangraphs	14.7	59

 

2025 YTD:

	G	PA	AVG	HR	R	RBI	SB
2025 Actual	119	499	0.281	15	70	57	16
Ext + 110		609		18	85	70	20

 

Again, I’ve extrapolated this year’s stats out to the numbers Henderson would end up with if he continued with exactly the same pace for the next 110 PAs. Those numbers are disappointing for sure, but a review of his season-long stats makes it obvious that the injury at the beginning of the season played a significant role in his disappointing season. His numbers since June 1st have been a bit light in HRs, but otherwise, he has looked mostly like the old Gunnar Henderson in that time.

What does the old Gunnar look like? See below:

Previous Stat Totals:

Previous 3 yrs	G	PA	AVG	HR	R	RBI	SB
2022	34	132	.259	4	12	18	1
2023	150	622	.255	28	100	82	10
2024	159	719	.281	37	118	92	21

 

Like Witt’s, Henderson’s last two years show a turn toward superstar, which I see no reason to doubt is a trajectory that will continue given a healthy season. I’ve heard the “industry” talking about Gunnar’s draft price for next year possibly being as late as late-RD2, even into RD3. I am all over that price if my league mates are going to give it to me. I would expect Henderson to go back to R1 value next year, so if my league mates are going to give me a $15 projected profit, I will 100% take it.

It’s worth noting that in the aforementioned Meatball draft, Gunnar went 15th, the last pick in R1 (DCs are 15-team leagues). Again, if the top players are telling you that a player is better than where we reasonably expect him to be drafted next year, go get the profit.

 

Willy Adames

Drafters tricked themselves this year in thinking Adames was going to repeat his career numbers of 2024 (see below). Projection systems, however, weren’t as bullish as drafters were. Their projections look reasonable for a player of Adames’s caliber who moved his home park to a tough hitter’s park:

Preseason Stat Projections:

	G	PA	AVG	HR	R	RBI	SB
Razzball	150	618	0.233	21.1	72.1	70.9	12.9
BatX	149.582	638.941	0.240784	25.2347	79.9436	79.232	11.3809

 

	**Hitter Rank	Auction $$
Razzball projections	80	10.7
BatX projections	53	14.4

**Projected hitter rank is based on auction projections.

If you were following projections in your drafting, you quite likely had no interest in Adames where he was going in drafts (I saw him consistently picked in the 80s, so the R6-7 range in a 12-team). I couldn’t understand why he was being drafted that high, and Adames’s slow start and tough transition to San Francisco seems to have justified my concerns:

Player Rater:

	YTD $$	YTD Hitter Rank
Razzball	9.8	78
Fangraphs	5.6	120

 

2025 YTD:

	G	PA	AVG	HR	R	RBI	SB
2025 Actual	119	499	0.281	15	70	57	16
Ext + 110		609		18	85	70	20

 

With Adames’s extrapolated numbers, he definitely will not prove to be a R6-7 player this year, but he’s still a very solid player. In fact, he’s pretty much what you would want from a R10-11 player, and I would honestly expect him to be drafted next year in the late 130s to 150 range (so R12-14 in a 12-team). Sign me up. His 3-year numbers suggest the same:

Previous Stat Totals:

Previous 3 yrs	G	PA	AVG	HR	R	RBI	SB
2022	139	617	.238	31	83	98	8
2023	149	638	.217	24	73	80	5
2024	161	688	.251	32	93	112	21

 

Those numbers over 3 years suggest Adames has some inconsistency in his game, but even in a down year, you can expect 25+ HRs, 80+ Rs & RBIs, and 5 SBs, and in his good years, you can add 5+ HRs and likely 10+ Rs & RBIs. Don’t count on a return to 21 SBs, and understand that his AVG will fluctuate, but his counting stats are strong. If I’m getting him in R12-14, which would be a 2-3 round discount from where I would value Adames, once again, I’m in.

Oh, and so is Steve Weimer who is easily one of the top 2 or 3 (if not an easy #1) Draft Champions players in the world right now. He picked Adames at 120 last night. Sounds about right to me. But I definitely wouldn’t expect Adames to go that high in most drafts, so I’ll be drafting him a lot.

 

Matt McLain

Matt McLain has been a bit of a mess this year, but there’s still something there. Projection systems saw a good player with some inconsistencies:

Preseason Stat Projections:

	G	PA	AVG	HR	R	RBI	SB
Razzball	136	547	0.253	20.4	70.6	69.4	16.2
BatX	124.384	533.563	0.255378	20.8837	72.0096	68.1305	17.8881

 

	**Hitter Rank	Auction $$
Razzball projections	61	14.1
BatX projections	63	12.1

**Projected hitter rank is based on auction projections.

Drafters, including me, saw a potential breakout player and drafted McLain often in the 60s. He certainly hasn’t been worth that draft price:

Player Rater:

	YTD $$	YTD Hitter Rank
Razzball	-1.9	150
Fangraphs	1	167

 

2025 YTD:

	G	PA	AVG	HR	R	RBI	SB
2025 Actual	114	465	0.221	11	57	40	16
Ext + 110		575		14	70	49	20

 

He seemed to forget how to hit for an extended period of time this year, but the HR and RBI numbers remind you that he can be a dangerous, if frustrating, hitter. I’m willing to bet on a reasonable bounceback considering his talent and his one half-season+ of stats prior to this year:

Previous Stat Totals:

Previous 3 yrs	G	PA	AVG	HR	R	RBI	SB
2023	89	403	.290	16	65	50	14
2024	DNP

 

His .290 AVG in 2023 seems quite lucky, but a full season’s stats of 20 HRs & SBs with 75-80 Rs and 65-70 RBIs seem well within reach. I would expect McLain to be picked somewhere in the late-100s or even after 200 next year. I’ll take the upside bet for that price.

 

That’s it for this week. The upcoming draft season looms large, especially for those of us who draft in the fall and winter months. It’s contagious too – don’t let the drafting bug keep you from focusing on the end of this season, but it doesn’t hurt to start spotting expected values for next year. I think these guys will offer it. Next week, let’s take a look at guys I’ll be fading.

Until next week. – ADHamley