Lewis Brinson has tantalized and terrorized us since he was selected in the first round of the 2012 MLB draft. The defensive potential in centerfield was always viewed as a plus while the hit tool was questionable at best. It was the potential power ceiling that made us go goo goo ga ga. Every time we bought in, though, Fantasy Eddie shuffled to the back of the car and put the banana in the tailpipe. Left for dead many of years on the fantasy streets, Brinson has resurrected and been added in 40% of ESPN leagues. Are we going to fall for the banana in the tailpipe? Or is Fantasy Eddie nowhere to be found?
Brinson is 27 years old, 6-foot-5, and 212 pounds. The Fangraphs grades are so enticing: 50/60 Game Power, 65/65 Raw Power, 60/55 Speed, 50/55 Field, and 60/60 Throws. The big bugaboo is the 40/50 Hit.
Early in his minor league career, he displayed power and speed. In his second season in Single-A, Brinson hit 21 home runs and stole 24 bases. The strikeout rate was 38% though and the batting average was .237 despite a .362 BABIP. As he progressed through the system, the strikeout rate came down below 20% while the walk rate was in the 10% range. The batting average fluctuated as well as the BABIP but he was consistently producing 10/10 seasons.
After being traded from the Rangers to the Brewers and finally the Marlins, Brinson finally received substantial playing time in the majors during the 2018 season. Since then, it’s been the same story. 5% walk rate, 29% strikeout rate, and a batting average near the Mendoza line.
In 65 plate appearances to open this season, the walk rate was 1.5% and the strikeout rate was 30.8%. The slash was .219/.231/.359. He got sent down to Triple-A then returned on July 19th. Since then, the walk rate is 8.2%, the strikeout rate is 23.5%, and the slash is .325/.388/.623 with a .299 ISO.
My first inclination was to dismiss it as a BABIP-fueled hot streak but I wanted to dig in a little deeper to make sure. For the rest of the piece, I will compare the two periods sandwiched around being sent down to Triple-A and will classify them as P1 and P2.
Looking at the Statcast data, during P1, Brinson was barrelling the ball 6.8% with a 40.9% hard-hit rate. In P2, those numbers are 10.7% and 49.1% respectively. Ok, he’s mashing the ball but we already knew that.
The batted ball data shows that he’s hitting fewer ground balls, fewer fly balls, but more line drives. It’s the approach numbers that really stand out. During P1, he was pulling the ball 27.3%. In P2, he’s now pulling the ball at a whopping 52.6%. That is a significant change in approach.
I’m all about the plate discipline numbers so I was looking forward to seeing what transpired here. The chase rate has gone down 6% while the swing rate in the strike zone has decreased 11%. The overall swing rate has diminished 7%. The contact rate in the zone has increased 11% and the swinging strike rate has gone from 19.3% to 15.1%.
I was looking for any mention of a swing or stance change or change in approach. I couldn’t find anything. I did find this, though. “Brinson’s success comes with a change in mindset.”
“Brinson wants to know every minute detail about the pitcher he is facing every night, every inkling and every tell that might be able to give him an advantage when he steps into the batter’s box”
“A lot of studying,” Brinson said. “I hated studying when I was in school, but this is my job. This is what’s going to ultimately feed my family one day so I had to find different avenues to help my game improve.”
When I started writing this piece, I was pretty sure that Brinson wasn’t going to be a thing. Just a hot streak. Digging in a little closer, I’ll admit that I’m intrigued. There’s going to be regression as he won’t maintain a .385 BABIP. And despite the massive improvements, the chase and swinging-strike rates are still laughably high. That said, he is hitting in the middle of the Marlins lineup and has made improvements with indications of a more mature mindset. He’s also been more patient at the plate and being super aggressive when he gets his pitch. It sounds and looks like there’s a plan.
As Mike Tyson so eloquently stated, though, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. The key will be how Brinson adjusts to the adjustments.
I’m inclined to believe there is some staying power here with Brinson. As a result, I will dabble where I can. If he adjusts to the adjustments well, then I’m fully in.
VERDICT
