The Supreme Leader, Grey, has blurbed about the candy sweetness of Lars Nootbaar in the past:
“Have you checked by the candied almonds?” That’s the sweet woman at Sprouts after I asked her if they had a Lars Nootbaar. Lars Nootbaar is from Cadbury, Eggland. I could go on all day, should I? Yes? Great. The only way to get Nootbaar out is with stain remover. His granny’s full name is Granola. Keep going? Okay, okay! One more! In Nootbaar’s Twitter bio, it lists his pronouns as chewy/nougaty, and his wife’s are her/shey.
Just another example of why Grey and GOAT go hand in hand, and it’s not because both are four-lettered words that start with G. Jay “Who is Never” Wrong wrote up Nootbaar back in June, so it’s not like he was just created on the Sony Studios server and inserted into the Matrix. I didn’t pay much heed to Nootbaar until recently, as he’s been a fixture in many of my DFS lineups because of his price in the $2,000 range on Draftkings. Let’s dig in and see if he’s worthy for your season-long lineups.
Nootbaar is 23 years old, 6-foot-3, 210 pounds, and bats from the left side. The Cardinals selected him in the eighth round of the 2018 MLB draft.
Throughout his brief minor league career, the walk rate was close to or above 10% while the strikeout rate never exceeded 20%. The ISO numbers were all over the place but he did display some pop with an ISO over .180 in two seasons with a little over 120 plate appearances.
Prior to getting the call-up this season, Nootbaar had a .308/.404/.496 slash with a .188 ISO, 12.5% walk rate, and 18.4% strikeout rate in 136 plate appearances. Me likey. In 68 MLB plate appearances, he has a .267/.338/.483 slash with a .217 ISO, 10.3% walk rate, and 16.2% strikeout rate. For those who actually read me, you know that I love this kind of profile.
The GB/FB rate is 1.35 while the line-drive rate is 18.4%. Not bad. He’s pulling the ball 40% of the time. The Statcast data looks promising as the average exit velocity is 89.9 mph while the max is 109.5. The launch angle is 8.6% and he’s barreled 4% of the pitches.
He only chases 22.8% of pitches out of the zone and the swinging-strike rate is 7.8%. That is so sexy. The contact rate in the zone is 88.7% while the overall contact rate is 80.4%.
There is just so much to like with Nootbaar. The BABIP is only .277 so his success hasn’t been fueled by good fortune. He’s batting sixth in the lineup and has been better against right-handed pitching than lefties.
Now, the sample sizes are very small and pitchers will poke and prod until they find something to exploit. That is just the natural order of things. The key for Nootbaar will be how he adjusts to the adjustments. He’s been able to handle the heat so far. According to Brooks Baseball, he’s seen 85 four-seamers so far and whiffed on only 8.24% of them. He has whiffed at 12.2% of the changeups he’s seen but he’s also sent 2.44% of them over the fence. The splitter and cutter have given him the most trouble (14.29% and 13.33% whiff rate respectively) but those are still respectable numbers.
In terms of location, up-and-in, low-and-away, and low in the zone have been the way. Standard stuff. It will be interesting to see what the adjustments to either location or pitch mix will be. In June when he first got called up, he was seeing 57% hard, 25% breaking, and 17% offspeed stuff. In July, it changed to 31% hard, 31% breaking, and 37% offspeed. In August, it has reverted back to the June distribution.
Nootbaar is rostered in 0.6% of ESPN lineups and 0% in NFBC leagues. He could lose playing time when Dylan Carlson returns to the lineup. Or maybe not. It’s encouraging that he’s played against left-handed pitching the last two games and wasn’t inept. That said, he’s free, possesses a nice batting profile, and is getting run right now. If the situation changes and he starts sitting or gets demoted, then act accordingly then. BLINGLESS TREASURE
