I always support and root for my Asian brethren in professional sports. Hee-Seop Choi! Hee-Seop Choi! I still get chills screaming the chant in Chavez Ravine. Was he great? Far from it. But he looked like me. I know that I shouldn’t take pride in their accomplishments but I do. Even after Chan Ho Park served up two grand slams in the same inning to the Fernando Tatis, I still felt pride. I may have thrown some remotes and entered a mental state of disbelief for a while but it was still there. Someone that looked like me and came from the same place as my parents was able to reach the highest level of professional sports. That said, when breaking down players for fantasy, I try and stay as objective as possible. Keston Hiura was born to a Chinese mother and a Japanese father. He looks like me and I always root for him. He’s also been added in 13.3% of ESPN leagues over the last week because he hit three home runs in the past two weeks. Trash or treasure?
When Hiura first entered the Brewers minor league system, the strikeout rate was in the 18-20% range. Upon entering Triple-A, that number spiked to 26.3%. Once he hit the majors, he’s been whiffing over 30% of the time. The power, though. Oh, that sweet, sexy power. The ISO was .352.
Unfortunately, the trend has not been so friendly once Hiura hit the big leagues. The strikeout rate has increased every season while the ISO has decreased. The slash was .303/.368/.570 in 2019 when he accrued 348 plate appearances. So far in 2021, the slash is .161/.259/.295 with a .134 ISO and 37.8% strikeout rate.
He was sent down to Triple-A in June because the slash was .130/.217/.222 with a .093 ISO in 122 plate appearances. Since being recalled, the slash is .244/.360/.488 with a .244 ISO in 50 plate appearances. Yipee!!
Let’s break it down.
The walk rate has increased 3.4% while the strikeout rate has decreased 5.3%. The BABIP is .318 compared to .220, so some good fortune has come his way. The barrel rate has gone from 11.3% to 24% while the hard-hit rate has gone from 38.7% to 52%. He’s hitting more ground balls with fewer fly balls, though. That HR/FB rate of 37.5% seems a teeny weeny unsustainable.
It’s all about the plate discipline for Hiura.
The chase rate has decreased 5%, the contact rate in the zone has increased 6.7%, and the swinging strike rate has decreased 3.3%. Good. Excellent. Amazing. Let’s throw a party.
Not to be a party pooper but the chase rate is still 30.4%, the contact rate in the zone is only 65.7%, and the swinging strike rate is still 20.8%. The chase rate would put him at 75th in MLB, the strike zone contact rate would be the worst among qualified hitters, and the swinging strike rate would be second worst. He’s in the area of Javier Baez from a plate discipline perspective.
Last season, I wrote up Hiura. I thought he’d be a treasure because of the pedigree and fact that Baez seems to do alright with a similar profile. I just hate the profile and worry that the swing and miss will be too much for Hiura to overcome. I hope that I’m wrong because I love rooting for him, but it is what it is. TRASH
