Junis When The…..?

Life is filled with so many certainties: death, taxes, and Grey dreaming about Adalberto Mondesi. Life is also so unpredictable. We like to box it in like a Choose Your Own Adventure book, but we are neither a phone booth nor Moses Malone, so life finds a way to keep us on our toes. While we try to prognosticate with as much information that is available to us, we never have all of the variables. Therefore, all we can do is try and swing the probabilities in our favor and then pray for the best. Ding ding ding ding ding! Ohh! Hold up. Let me throw all my money away into that juicy slot machine that has the worst odds on the floor! One thing I’ve learned over the years from fantasy football is that targeting ambiguous backfields is often a very profitable venture because the question marks suppress the acquisition cost, making the risk/reward ratio very enticing. As I dove into the dumpster this week, there’s a certain pitcher who is essentially free, will have the opportunity and may not actually suck.

Jakob Junis is his name. He may be a lame but could also be bubbly like champagne. Let’s dig in.

Junis is a right-handed pitcher who is 31 years old, 6-foot-3 and 220 pounds.  He was selected by the Kansas City Royals in the 29th round of the 2011 MLB draft.

Throughout his six-year minor league career, Junis did not have a robust strikeout rate, as it was in the 7 to 8 K/9 range. It did spike to 10.9 in 71 Triple-A innings, but that was an outlier. He displayed good command, as the walk rate never exceeded 2.5, and he suppressed home runs well, with the HR/9 never being above 2.

He made his MLB debut in 2017, and the results were mediocre at best. He compiled a 4.55 FIP in 98 innings with a 7.32 K/9. The fastball averaged 91.6 mph. The walk rate was only 2.29 while the HR/9 was 1.37, so not all was bad.

He pitched 177 and 175 innings in 2018 and 2019. The K/9 was in the 8.4-range while the walk rate was 2.19 and 2.98. The HR/9 was in the 1.6 area while the FIP was around 4.7. The fastball was in the 91 mph area as well. I’m sure by now that Grey has sent me a text with rolly eyes. But wait, it gets more yawnstipating!!!

Junis suffered a bevy of injuries during the 2020 and 2021 seasons, which eventually led to his release and free agency. The San Francisco Giants scooped him in 2022. He started 17 games and pitched 112 innings. The Giants ballpark and defense predictably helped, as the FIP was 3.65 and HR/9 was 1.04. The walk rate was 2.01, the K/9 was 7.88 and the fastball averaged 92 mph.

Last season, though, there were some significant changes. The Giants used Junis as a swing man, so he only started four games and pitched 86 innings. He threw four innings in a game five times, three innings 13 times, two innings 10 times, and one inning the rest.

But the most significant changes came from the pitch arsenal. He utilized the slider more while replacing the four-seam fastball with a sinker, and added 2 mph of velocity. The slider usage went from 51.4% to 62.5%. All of the above changes helped Junis post a 10.05 K/9 and 3.74 FIP. Oh yeah.

With the Brewers shipping off Corbin Burnes, there are innings available. Milwaukee signed Junis to a one-year deal, with the intention of starting him. Roster Resource currently has Junis as the third starting pitcher behind Freddy Peralta and Wade Miley.

Steamer has Junis projected for 126 innings and an 8.33 K/9. I think those are both fair numbers but I believe there is upside to both. He has pitched 175 innings twice in his career. In addition, he wasn’t just throwing in one-inning stretches last season. There’s been an obvious change in approach and pitch mix. Finally, Jack Stern wrote a good piece earlier this month of how Junis can get better. Essentially, he said that Junis didn’t pound righties with the sinker in. Instead, he would bring it back from the outside. So, with both the sinker and slider on the outer part of the plate, batters could just focus in that area. If Junis gets a fastball to throw inside, or at least pound the sinker in, that could keep batters honest.

The ADP for Junis in NFBC drafts is 648! He’s freer than free. Fantrax still has him only labeled as a RP. Junis has always had good command. What if the K/9 is close to 9 and he pitches 150 innings with a sub-4 FIP? That would be Tony the Tiger Greeeeeeeaaaaatt!! Just know that by June, Junis could be on the IR, getting blown up or in Korea, but whatever, he was free!