Saved By the Bell

Look, I’m not going to age myself by extrapolating the above reference into an entire paragraph, as it is almost a 100% fixture in cultural Americana circa the 90s, but I would disclaim that it was either the above title or a “For Whom the Bell Tolls” reference, and to be quite honest, we should always ere on the side of optimism, even in the forms of phraseology. Random asides, check. Weak sauce title drop, check. Wasting away an entire lede struggling to connect aforementioned title into subject, check. Yep, it’s Jay post alright. Anyways, here we go, gonna talk about not Saved by the Bell, but more Josh Bell (annnnnnnd just thought about how I could have done a “Liberty Bell” tie-in but I’m too lazy to go back and change it, so I’ll just go ahead and type more words essentially transcribing my current inner dialogue and thus ending up doing more work. Makes sense.) Also, I guess, you know, RIP Screech. That sucked.

Did my optimism thing just die a quick death? omg…

Okay, so, if you know me, what just happened was completely normal. If you don’t, well, sorry SEO impressions, glad to know you bro. And if you are Josh Bell, friends and family of Josh Bell, and perhaps my mother, welcome to this discussion on whether he gets a ringing endorsement. Italicized since I’m insecure. So on one hand, or I guess it would be held in your hand since it’s technically a bell, but for simplicity, just go back to the one hand. Okay, so, on one hand, you have Bell and what he’s done in the past. And that’s a pretty cool dude, with him providing a good source of power and it’s favorite accessories: counting stats sans the steals, along with palatable plate discipline numbers. And then, of course, in on in no, on the other hand, you have 2020 Josh Bell which ended up much like 2020 itself, something akin to a dumpster fire and I dunno, something completely egregious like tires and pineapple on pizza (come at me).

And this concept kinda leads us right into what the meta story is here, about how a shortened season can integrate some wackiness into the process that we’re all experiencing right now. As part of my preseason coverage, I’ve tried to explore value in all facets, and in every piece I’ve made sure to include a snapshot of the player pre-Covid, during the Covid season, and what our projections say. In that same vein, let’s take a look at what Bell has specifically brought to the table the last few seasons:

Quite the roller coaster of emotions going on here.

The remaining power numbers projected for this year remain enticing, despite the flop of 2020, and while many are quick to point out that just a few hot months propelled most of Bell’s success back in 2019, there’s a bit more nuance to that take. Of course players can have super hot months and return to normalcy, that is quite the norm, but you always want to delve a bit deeper.

So in terms of last season, you can certainly see the profile of a struggling hitter. And not necessarily unlucky either, with a BABIP that is not that far off from the previous season’s high. You also have a wide variation between between his seasonal plate discipline numbers, we’ll get to more on tha tlater.

Here you’ll see that most of his problems lay with angle, hitting the ball hard into the ground. Curiously enough, when he did hit the ball in the air, he got it over the fence at much the same rate as his “breakout” 2019, a somewhat good indicator despite the surrounding caveats. And while I mentioned above that while it’s probably widely accepted that 2020 obviously looks more like his 2018 than his 2020, it’s good to see a mechanism that would raise his power back to expected levels, and that’s to stop hitting it into the ground.

While this numbers reflect what we already no, I would note that the changes aren’t that wild here. Granted, you obviously want to keep hitting the ball hard and at the same percentage, but this is not the precipitous drop that we’ve been led to believe. Especially when you account for a stat I left out in the above table, but might be important: Even through his 2020 struggles, Bell still managed to end the year with a .288/.377/.485 triple slash with a .197 ISO. Clearly, something was happening…

And his batting profile, despite literally hitting the ball down instead of up, has shown very little change as well. Another encouraging data set, showing that despite his struggles, Bell did not sacrifice discipline.

He did sacrifice a bit of contact though! But looking through his entire profile, there is something to be said about what Josh Bell thought the problem was, and that was adjusting to a unique year, and a very short time table to get season ready. The issue here is that this was a general issue for all MLB players, though I am willing to grant the fact that every player is different. Did something as simple as not being in-shape or, not being “gameday ready” explain all of Bell’s issues? Probably not, but I would admit it does fill-out the narrative here a bit too well. Literally the only thing Bell did wrong last year was be a little off on the swing, if I’m being super reductive about it. Who’s to say that something like a mechanical blip didn’t cause this? Let’s accept the fact that Bell probably won’t put up another 2019, I’m fine with that. You should be too.

And even with that acceptance, there’s a lot to like for what he brings to the table and at strong value point. Take a look around the room, sure, there will still be some hype with Bell’s projections, and why wouldn’t there be? Everyone digs the longball, this has been true in all the years I’ve followed the sport. I can even see the excitement here in D.C. for this acquisition, it is quite palpable. I mean, not that palpable, six feet bro, but a lot of talking heads and fans are celebrating this “grandeurs” signing. And I guess the point I’m trying to make is, don’t fall into the trap here of convincing yourself a rebound is a coming and Bell will provide, but there’s nothing wrong with letting him just sit there and obtain value and expecting subdued but good numbers at the corner.

As you can see above, I think you could make the case that because of his position, the production isn’t the juice worthy of a squeeze (hot), but I’d wager that this is the very concept that creates value, combined with the negative quick-takes that this player has only been solid for one month. So in this case, I do believe the value has dipped to a point where I’m buying and expecting an unspectacular but meaningful rebound. I mean, honestly, the projections don’t seem that far off from what this whole post tries to elaborate upon, so as I do with your mom, don’t grab now, grab later, and don’t feel bad if you can’t grab at all. You grabbed on your terms. (Consensual grabbing only folks.)

TL;DR: Josh Bell is not the bees knees, but he’s also not a Paul W.S. Anderson movie either. Grab him if he falls. Don’t feel bad if ya don’t. The End!

Jay is a longtime Razzball everything who consumes an egregious amount of Makers Mark as a vehicle to gain wisdom and augment his natural glow. Living in the D.C. area, he also likes spending time visiting the local parks and feeding lettuce to any turtles he encounters, including Mitch McConnell. You can follow him @jaywrong.