Jonah Tong, 2026 Fantasy Outlook

As mentioned in the Nolan McLean rookie outlook, he is better than Jonah Tong. Eat a D, Tong! Haha, got his ass. [intern whispers] Oh, I’m hearing Jonah Tong is good too. Well, yeah, dur! That’s why we’re here! So, Itch wrote up his top 10 Mets prospects and there he said, “Tong’s four-seam fastball has been knocked around by major league hitters, who are slugging .600 across 213 pitches. Some of this is just location, but it’s not what happened with Tim Lincecum, whatever that’s worth. His heater had incredible life and dominated from the get go. I’ve always thought those comparisons were more aesthetic than anything, and the early returns are hinting in that direction. I still think Tong is an excellent prospect. Ranked him ninth on the recent top 100 list. But he gets his outs a little differently, with more finesse than power, featuring impressive command of a plus change-up and curveball. He might age a little better than Lincecum for this reason, and the Mets have shown they help a guy shape his fastball to maximum effect. Tong has a 1.77 WHIP through his first five starts, but that’s being dropped into a high-pressure playoff run after speeding through the minor leagues. He’ll be a buy for me in redraft leagues next season, and would love to kick Grey out of an airplane at 30,000 feet.” What? So, what can we expect from Jonah Tong for 2026 fantasy baseball?

First, let’s look at Tim Lincecum–I mean Jonah Tong–I mean–Ugh, I don’t know what I mean anymore. Here’s both:

Tim Lincecum vs. Jonah Tong. pic.twitter.com/lOpe0ynvqv

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 30, 2025

Do you think Tong was like, “I wanna emulate Tim Lincecum!” Then modeled his entire pitching mechanics after him, then years later saw Lincecum start to break down once he hit 29, and Tong was like, “Oops.” It is kind of an odd person to emulate when you think about it. It’s like, “I wanna be just like Jim Morrison from just after his age 27 birthday.” Like, uh, dude, maybe you change your mechanics when you see what happened to Lincecum, no? Well, he didn’t and here he is with some of the best stuff in baseball. Literally, Tong’s Stuff+ was the best of any starter in the minors after he debuted in Triple-A. Andrew Painter and Bubba Chandler were just behind. His lowercase stuff is unhittable. I kinda liked him over Nolan McLean, but I respect Itch putting McLean first, so I went that way too. I say I like Tong “now,” because I can’t help shake that, if you emulate Lincecum, you’re gonna end up like him eventually. But I’m sure he’d take a few Cy Youngs if it meant being washed at 29.

Jonah Tong’s 4-seamer in Triple-A had a 41.1 Whiff% and averaged 95.8 MPH. Just felt like pointing out one silly smoke show pitch. Want another? Oh, okay! He had a 50 Whiff% on his 85 MPH change. He doesn’t really need anything else. Of course, he also has a slider (87 MPH, 33 Whiff%) and a curve (77 MPH, 33 Whiff%) with a straight, over-the-top motion. The most over-the-top of anyone. More over the top than Sly in Over The Top. Similar to McLean, I don’t love the command. Tong’s minor league numbers: 1.43 ERA, 14.2 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 in 113 2/3 IP and had a 4.3 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 in the majors with a 7.71 ERA in only 18 2/3 IP. ERA means nothing there, so ignore.

There’s very little to dislike here, except the command but, like I said with McLean, the stuff is so nasty Tong can likely just pitch through it, i.e., load the bases and strike out the side. For rookie pitchers, that is scary route to success, and can result in roofies. There’s no real feel on whether McLean or Tong will be better in 2026. I’d guess they’ll be ranked and draft very close to each other. McLean feels slightly more refined, and with a better chance to break camp, but you’re talking about a thisclose to each other scenario. For 2026 fantasy baseball, I’ll give Jonah Tong projections of 6-5/3.94/1.31/123 in 107 IP with a chance for more.