Promise you all of my 2022 fantasy baseball sleepers won’t be “very hyped rookie who failed to live up to hype and is now priced well in drafts.” Though, how about that Brett Lawrie?! No, seriously…But what about Ian Happ?! C’mon! He had a good 2nd half. Okay, gonna stop there, since I might actually write an Ian Happ sleeper post for the fifth year in a row. So, I was looking at the top xwOBAs, which is a ton of letters to understand — yo, xwOBAs, who do you think you are, SAGNOF? — and I was sorting by who should be better in 2022 and Jarred Kelenic was in no way near the top of that (213th out of 328). Then I looked at Jarred Kelenic’s xBA and it was .215, and I started to hold my nose like I smelt a fart that was trapped under a dead body. Then I looked at his average exit velocity and that was hideous (87.5 MPH) and I began to think maybe I shouldn’t bother with the Jarred Kelenic sleeper post. There was always Ian Happ, amiright? But I can’t give up on Jarred Kelenic, not that quickly, not yet. Sure, he had the same expected stats as Alcides Escobar, but he can’t be that bad, can he? Well, he was, but will he be? That’s the real question, or this one: So, what can we expect from Jarred Kelenic for 2022 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
First of all, anyone that’s out on a top prospect just because of one bad 93-game stretch needs to have their crackers swept up, they’re in the cracks of their brain custard and messing up their synapses. Last year, Jarred Kelenic went 23/12, and hit .320 in Triple-A with a .323 BABIP, then hit .181 with a .216 BABIP in the majors. He may not be a .320 hitter, but he’s a lot closer to that than .181. He struggled in every way in the majors. Since the average is his one big red flag, let’s dig deep, as Jeff Probst says. Here’s his plate discipline:
The pink (Mauve?) highlighted strip is the major league average. Jarred Kelenic might’ve been the most average plate discipline guy. Average plate discipline doesn’t equate to hitting .181, unless you’re hitting squibblers to 2nd base. There might be something to that. As his hideous exit velocity was pointed out above, he was not making great contact. He had a 29.3% Hard Contact rate, which is about the same as Donovan Solano. Jarred Kelenic is more like Maikelenic Franco! What’s interesting about Kelenic vs. Solano is Kelenic had a max exit velocity that was about hundred spots higher than Solano. That means Kelenic is capable of a lot more than he was showing.
Could Jarred Kelenic had just been struggling to get comfortable in the majors? Did he get better as the season went on? Here’s where you’re going to want to hold onto your hat. You’re not wearing a hat? Is that a wig? That’s your real hair? Okay, hold onto your “real hair.” In September, Jarred Kelenic went 20/7/19/.248/3 in 105 ABs. That was by far his best month and most at-bats seen in the majors in one month. How is this guy a sleeper? Mr. Prorater will tell you that if you were to say “excuse me” to every person you ever bumped into, you’d spend your entire life saying “excuse me” and that over six months Jarred Kelenic is prorated for a 120/43/120/.250/18 season. Holy shizzballs, can I draft him in the 1st round or do I need to make up a make-believe round prior to the first to draft him in? For 2022, I’ll give Jarred Kelenic projections of 81/29/92/.253/14 in 554 ABs with a chance for a lot more.
