It was the best of titles, it was the worst of titles. Like my English Professor once told me, if you start off by quoting Dickens, it only goes downhill after that. Little did he know, that’s my life ethos! I was born for downhill baby. And before we dip into some of that good ole existential despair, I think it prudent to at least try and talk about Daulton Varsho and his return to the Major Leagues. Still a known prospect, he struggled to make his mark last season, hadn’t looked great this spring, and so we’re here now to see what’s changed and if it’s for the better. And I guess we should check his shoe size while we’re at it, unless that was a shameless attempt to quickly tie-in the title to the content. Self awareness is a powerful tool!
So with Kole Calhoun going on the IR, Daulton Varsho is getting called back up, and in some formats, he’ll bring his catcher eligibility with him to the outfield. As if that sentence makes sense outside of context. Regardless, I have to point out that in leagues where Varsho does retain catcher eligibility, literally take my entire analysis and multiply it by 2. Because that’s how math works. What I’m trying to say without numbers is, spoiler alert, I like Varsho, but in leagues where he can bring his skillset to the dearth cave known as the catching position (no clue why it’s a cave but whatever), I think there’s literally no downside. I mean, unless you like trotting out Elias Díaz or another player at the backstop that is akin to seppuku. (Wouldn’t it be trouting if we’re talking shop?)
But! Let’s talk about him generally since not all leagues will look at Varsho and be like, yeah, that outfielder is a catcher. (To be fair, he is entirely serviceable as a catcher and could be able to retain dual eligibility in most, if not all leagues if he sticks.) So how does he fair generally at the plate and what can we expect as just an outfielder? Great question my man. (Literally true!)
Let’s get the negatives out of the way. While I normally do stat breakdowns, set up some tables, charts, maybe even some crazy-dirty math… we have a grand time around here if I do say so myself! Totally. Absolutely. But the truth of the matter is, there isn’t much to really read into at a meta level. Can’t do graphs if all the numbers suck! *points to forehead. We know he’s a young player that struggled last season, and then struggled in Spring Training, and, you know, might continue to struggle now. I can think of better trends, to be sure. And while preseason doesn’t provide the most solid of data sets historically, hitting .143 with only one walk and 13 strikeouts in 44 plate appearances did solidify his demotion before Opening Day despite being a sleeper to make the team. And that sleeper status has continually shaped the characterization of him in fantasy as well with some consensus that he could end up an above average hitter with speed, but middling power. While that profile has value, in a vacuum, it’s a bit underwhelming, so you can understand why his continued sleeper status may gnaw at his value as a negative. That being said, when I say sucked, he has at least sucked long enough to where maybe that value has been reassessed.
So, the positives. Well, here’s what I like, and keep in mind I already talked about his catcher eligibility, so this paragraph is already handicapped a bit. Let me at least cheat a little, since this is my content and I’ll cry if I want to (thanks Cyndi Lauper for still being omnipresent enough for this reference to happen) and say that I like the positional flexibility that Varsho brings. And this should be allowed to state since I’m not specifically talking about his catcher status or the potential thereof. It’s more so in that his defensive flexibility sets him up for more starts, more plate appearances, and if we’re doing this right, more production for him at the Major League level. Well, if he’s doing this right. Though I love the “team” mentality I’m showing here.
What else do I like? Well, he’s young, in a vacuum, I generally find it better to have the new hotness rather than the old and busted. Unless it’s your mom. And call me crazy, while Varsho’s batting profile may show subdued power potential, I truly believe that there’s a little more pop than what we might expect. I do like his ability to make contact, and while his career Barrel% is quite low at 4.4, his HardHit% stands at a solid 38.2. Hitting 18 homeruns in AA back in 2019 is not nothing, along with the fact that while he only managed to hit 3 in 2020, that’s about 12 in a normal-length season while still only hitting .188. While Steamer projects that he’ll hit about 4 homeruns, that’s under the expectation of just 32 games played. I believe he can do better in that regard, and as is obvious with counting stats, the more games, the more stats we net. In this case, and if Varsho can make any kind of an attempt at a batting average above .250, 15+ homeruns is manageable.
Like most projects, Varsho I think just needs at-bats for his skills to shine through on the stat sheet. There will be speed bumps, no doubt, but again, his flexibility around the field will keep him in the lineup, hopefully running a bunch and showing flashes of power with that beautiful catcher eligibility. This is a dream of mine, one of many. But if the Varsho fits?
It counts.
Jay is a longtime Razzball everything who consumes an egregious amount of Makers Mark as a vehicle to gain wisdom and augment his natural glow. Living in the D.C. area, he also likes spending time visiting the local parks and feeding lettuce to any turtles he encounters, including Mitch McConnell. You can follow him @jaywrong, or read his rarely (like never) updated blog Desultory Thoughts of a Longfellow.
