As we near an opening day that felt like it may never come, the prospect watch has started in earnest. We now watch Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodriguez, Riley Greene and many more in their bid to become the next Fernando Tatis Jr. While the excitement of the young upstart slugger is always enticing, more often than not our future stars stumble and fall out of the gate. Let us not forget the sterling performance of Mike Trout and his .220 average and measly 5 home runs in his inaugural 2011 season. He seemed to turn out okay after that stumble to be that true reminder that even the most talented of prospects need an adjustment period. So this week, we step back and look at two former top five prospects. These gentlemen were once the next great thing and maybe 2022 is their year. So what do we make of Gleyber Torres and Gavin Lux this spring? Let us find out.
Gleyber Torres (ADP 148)
Torres was a big name coming up and burst onto the scene as a 21-year old in 2018. He took the game to the next level in 2019 clubbing 38 homers in the middle of the Yankees lineup. Many folks over invested at this point despite many warning signs. In that 2019 season, Gleyber put up hard hit rates in the bottom third of the league, bottom half exit velocities, and above average HR/FB rates. Many of those 2019 home runs barely cleared the fence. If Torres was playing all his games in Kansas City, he would have only hit 21 dingers that year. Ultimately, the 2019 season set up fantasy owners with unrealistic expectations for Torres.
Fast forward to the second half of 2021 and I think we have a true glimpse of the player that Gleyber is going to be. In the second half, across 50 games we saw 6 homers, 8 steals with a .289 average. Looking across a full season, I think we have a 15/15 player with a .270 average which is always going to be valuable albeit not a superstar. The downfall is folks still believe there will be more. If you ask me, I would hold out to buy the same results from a guy like Brandon Crawford, Josh Rojas, or maybe even the next guy we talk about below.
Gavin Lux (ADP 229)
Coming up through the minors, Lux showed all the makings of a star that was capable of delivering 20+ homers and a .290-.300 average annually in the middle of Hollywood’s best lineup. Between 2018-2019 and four levels of the minors, Lux clubbed over 40 long balls and hit well over .300. Coming into the 2019 season, expectations were high that Gavin would take over the keystone and be a long-term fantasy contributor.
Fast forward to the major leagues and Lux has been a disappointment in his sparing and chaotic playing time. If his development had been any more disjointed and disrupted, he would be playing for the Rockies. At this point in his career, Lux has logged a .233 average, 12 dingers, and less than 70 runs and RBI apiece across 144 games. However, things have started to turn for Lux which makes him a very intriguing flier this year when the cost to play is merely a 19th round draft pick.
Gavin was sent to the minor leagues in early August and spent about a month resetting on the farm. It was not that his numbers set the league on fire, but how he returned to the Dodgers that has me interested. Upon returning, Lux shifted from a player that had struck out approaching 30% of the time in the majors to a player that actually walked more than he struck out. During September, he walked in 13% of at bats and stuck out in 12%. While it is a small sample size, it is notable considering this glimpse of plate discipline mirrors closely his most successful seasons in the minors. Toss in an increase in his pull rate during that time, and I am just plain intrigued that Lux may finally be feeling comfortable at the plate in a season where he finally looks like he will be given a true shot to play every day.
