Hip Hip Jorge!

There was a time when I’d watch ESPN Sportscenter all day, all night, even though segments would repeat over and over and over and over again. Was it the highlights? The amazing announcers they had back in the day? The commercials? Definitely a combination of all three but the commericals were top notch.

C’mon! How can you not like that? Anyways, this commercial immediately popped into my dome when I started thinking about who to write up this week. It’s a player that jumped out to me a while ago and Rudy and I drafted him in the 17th round of a recent Online Championship. This player is…Hip Hip…Jorge Polanco. Let’s dig in.

Polanco is 30 years old, 5-foot-11, 208 pounds and bats from both sides of the plate. He signed with the Twins as an international free agent back in 2009, and remained in Minnesota until he was traded this offseason to the Seattle Mariners.

Throughout his minor league career, he exhibited excellent plate discipline, as the walk rate was often in the double-digits while the strikeout rate was often in the teens. The ISO was .197 in rookie ball, but the power was mostly middling. He showed some speed with double-digit stolen bases in two seasons and the batting average was often in the .280 to .300 range.

Polance made his MLB debut in 2014, but only accrued eight plate appearances. In 2015, he received 12 plate appearances. Finally, 2016 is when he got significant playing time, finishing with 270 plate appearances. During that span, he contributed four home runs and four stolen bases with a 6.3% walk rate, 17% strikeout rate, and .143 ISO. The slash was .282/.332/.424.

The following season, he became a full-time starter and racked up 13 home runs and 13 stolen bases in 544 plate appearances. The walk rate was 7.5%, strikeout rate was 14.3% and ISO was .154. The slash finished at .256/.313/.410.

In 2019, the power started to manifest, as the ISO was .190. He also racked up 704 plate appearances. In 2021, the ISO was .235, the first time above .200. That was his Mona Lisa season, as he hit 33 home runs, stole 11 bases, scored 97 runs, and drove in 98. The walk rate was 7% while the strikeout rate was 18.3%. The slash was .269/.323/.503 in 644 plate appearances.

Then injuries struck. Ankle, hamstring and knee issues limited him to 445 plate appearances in 2022 and 343 plate appearances last season.

This is the likely reason why people are scurred of Polanco this season.

He’s finished. He’s done for. The end is nigh. Stick a fork in him. 

Here’s the thing, though. He’s still only 30 years old. The strikeout rates have increased recently, into the mid-20% range, but he’s still walking at a double-digit clip and the ISO was a healthy .199 last season. Injuries are funny things. And the injury gods often got jokes, just to torment us silly humans.

I’m a hoops guy, so I apologize for bringing big orange ball references into our little white ball world. Phrasing, Son. Phrasing. Karl-Anthony Towns never missed a game in his first three seasons in the league. Everyone proclaimed him as the Cal Ripken of NBA. Because of that durability, his value was increased and people were acting like those at Walmart on Black Friday. Then he got injured. And continued to get injured. Now he’s a freaking pariah. Could this be the trajectory for Polanco? It’s well within the range of outcomes.

But here’s the flip side.

Chris Paul started missing games after he entered his 30s. The whispers were that he was injury prone and difficult to draft in fantasy. Then in his age 34 season, he racked up back-to-back seasons in which he played the majority of games. Then the narrative shifted and people morphed into a Walmart zombie.

Sure, past injuries increase the chances of future injuries, but they are not predictive. Unless there are structural issues or your name is Byron Buxton, then variance is often the culprit. That said, when the acquisition cost of a player is high, injury history garners a greater significance. When the market has discounted a player due to injury history, then the risk/reward ratio becomes palatable.

In NFBC drafts from the start of February, Polance is being selected as the 244th player on average. Roster Resource has Polanco hitting third in the batting order while Steamer has him down for 615 plate appearances, 22 home runs, 74 runs, 77 RBI and six stolen bases. Steamer also has Polanco projcted for a 10.1% walk rate, 23.2% strikeout rate, .173 ISO and .245/.326/.419 slash.

That ain’t bad, yo.

Fangraphs has 12 second basemen projected to hit at least 20 home runs. Five of those are projected to bat in the .240 range:

• Nolan Gorman
• Matt McLain
• Brandon Drury
• Brandon Lowe
• Zack Gelof

Gelof and McLain are projected to steal 20 bases, so we can cross them off the list for this comparison.

Drury is slated to bat sixth for what should be a middling offense. He may hit a few more home runs but the runs will likely be lower and the walk rate is half that of Polanco.

Lowe is very similar to Polanco, and he has an ADP of 261, so the value is nice for him as well. He will likely get platooned, though, and the strikeout rate is higher.

Gorman will likely hit more home runs than Polanco but he has way more swing-and-miss to his game. In addition, he’s being selected over 60 picks earlier on average.

Polanco is a switch hitter and has a career .269 average against both righties and lefties. The top of the Mariners lineup is pretty potent, with JP Crawford batting leadoff, Julio Rodriguez in the two-hole, Polanco, then Mitch Garver and Cal Raleigh. Polanco has 30 home run, 100 RBI upside. Sure, that’s not the most likely outcome, but it’s within the range and something he accomplished just three seasons ago. There is risk due to recent injury history, but the current discount makes the risk worth it for the potential upside.