Following the trend of pitchers trending down of whom should be trending up… and also assembling one of the best sentences ever, we’ve now landed (not literally, unless I guess you jumped your way over here) on one Nestor Cortes. In his eight games started over 42.1 innings, Cortes has put up a 5.53 ERA (with a marginally less intrusive 4.61 FIP), a far cry from 2022’s 2.44 ERA and 3.13 FIP. And frustratingly slow, Cortes didn’t actually start off like this, in fact, in he hadn’t given up more than three runs or walked more than two in the entire month of April. And while Lance Lynn’s comeback tour has been a bit delayed, Cortes might be the easier sell that better production is just around the corner. No, not that corner, stop looking. The other corner…
Noted throughout his prospect stage as an above-average pitcher, much of the analysis generally leaned toward the dreaded “intangibles”. Yes, the physicals were still there, a left-hander that carried enough versatility in his pitches to start with some strikeout potential. Though he did always have some issues with control, walking a bit too many, many, especially in New York, noted his competitiveness, confidence, and character. While these are the same traits of my love-making, sometimes they are less useful when gauging how well a prospect can actually succeed. I mean, not to do a dated cross-reference, but the great Michael Jorden had all those three traits in spades and hit the baseball about as well as I could. But for a pitcher who stayed around the high 80’s and low 90’s, I guess descriptors like that are more likely to be used.
But starting in 2021, Nestor Cortes began to show what he could do, and that’s garner just enough control to let his K/9 and weak contact do the heavy lifting, and it worked! Even though he ended his past two seasons with a BB/9 over two, his nine-plus K/9 and Hard% in the sub-30’s on his fly-balls, the measure of success he was finding, especially in 2022 when he became a full-time starter, boded well for this season’s outlook. Also for comma usage.
However, the same can’t be said so far this season, as Cortes has managed a higher than his normal 2.76 BB/9, and with it, an inflated 1.49 HR/9. With the obvious and already mentioned caveat, the volatility has come from some of his most recent starts, and really just two of the last three. In a combined nine innings pitched in those two games (versus the Rangers and Rays), he walked eight and gave up 12 earned runs with four homeruns. While it’s very early to panic, there is justification for minor concern. After all, there isn’t a large swath of data available to us, mostly due to Cortes being sorta-young (28 years) and also splitting his time in the bullpen, a majority of those innings garnered earlier in his career. But the recent poor starts are confirmation that when he doesn’t have everything working, there’s very little margin for error due to the type of pitcher he is. And if we are simply basing off some common benchmarks in his career, a smaller sample size notwithstanding, it seems at least pretty clear that for him to succeed, he must do three things; keep his K/9 above 9.5, keep his BB/9 below 2.5 and absorb a BABIP closer to his career .270.
Nestor Cortes right now carries a 8.93 K/9, 2.76 BB/9, and a BABIP of .310, all fueling his high ERA and in fact producing a high xFIP of 5.16, not that encouraging of a projector. And look, I won’t draw this out, I can safely say that if you have Cortes or are wanting to add him in whatever transaction, I personally just think this is a small blip out of what should be a stronger year on the mound for him. I don’t think this is a sign of things to come, but because of the type of pitcher he is and with the xFIP acting as a mini-red flag, there are some factors here we should all be aware of moving forward.
First, the exit velocity has ticked up, and also concerning, batters are getting a better Barrel% on his pitches along with a better launch angle. They are hitting the ball harder and higher. Not just that, but in the splits, it also appears that batters are pulling the ball a bit more, which mostly translates to picking up the ball faster and also generating power on that swing. But, the velocity checks out as normal based on his career, and there isn’t really anything super crazy with his plate discipline numbers. Contact% and Swing% are all in line as well.
Look, I’m not concerned, but going forward, be sure to keep an eye on how Nestor Cortes looks. While I’m certain he has the talent and “intangibles” to stay on the same course he was on, there are some issues to be aware of. Granted, this may just be who he is, a great pitcher that has runs where he can give up a lot of walks and runs, but if he can continue with the markers we set above with a little bit of luck, there’s no reason why he can’t be that 3.50 ERA pitcher with 150+ Ks he was projecting to be…
Jay is a longtime Razzball everything who consumes an egregious amount of Makers Mark as a vehicle to gain wisdom and augment his natural glow. Living in the D.C. area, he also likes spending time visiting the local parks and feeding lettuce to any turtles he encounters, including Mitch McConnell.
