My love for all things Tribe will probably be the death of my fantasy team but I’m out here not carin. I’m not sure if my Bauer post will come out first or if this one will but I’ve also at this point in late February already completed a draft in which I took Carrasco in the 9th and Salazar in the 16th. What I’m trying to say is Cleveland is going to win 155 games this year so I want every starter on that team. I’m joking of course…about that many wins for the Indians. Or maybe it wasn’t a joke more so than it was hyperbole? I don’t wanna get technical here, let’s just say I literally want every starter they have for various reasons and when you’re going deep like I am with these posts, you sometimes have to scratch beneath the depth chart to see what’s available and what do I see? I see a T.J. House party that just might blow up in the late rounds of your draft. So BYOB and get ready to groove as we see why T.J. might be a solid play by the end of the 2015 Fantasy Baseball season…
The first strike against T.J. is probably the biggest. He’s a pitcher and his first name is ‘T.J.’? Like ‘Tommy John’? I’m not one to get all Stevie Wonder superstitious but I ain’t one for walking under ladders or breaking mirrors if I can avoid it. I keed. The real danger for House is he officially doesn’t have a job right now. If the depth charts hold, Corey Kluber is the ace, Carlos Carrasco is the ace in the making, Gavin Floyd is the ‘wise, savvy veteran arm’, Trevor Bauer is the kid who could take the leap and Danny Salazar is trying to rise from the dead of 2014 to win slot #5 in the rotation. If you read reports, they will tell you that House is directly competing with Danny if he’s going to make the rotation at all. I call hogwash on that. Might even throw in a balderdash if you press me hard enough (ow, not that way! I’m not a Furby!). Now though it’s true Danny could falter, his second half of 2014 leaves us with a lot of promise and you can read more about that here care of Big Magoo in his Under The Greydar piece. Let’s also realize Trevor is out of options so he’s locked on the team until he proves to be completely incompetent. So that leaves the only real spot up for grabs being Gavin Floyd’s. Hrm, he just signed a $4 million dollar contract with another $6 million in incentives. So he’s untouchable too, right? Well, let’s see how many innings he’s pitched the last two years in the majors: 78.2. In fact, the last time Gavin pitched more than 170 IP was in 2011 and his peripherals for his career (4.11 xFIP, 4.40 ERA, 2.35 K:BB ratio) aren’t exactly thrilling. I’m sure many will point to his sterling 2014 season with the Braves in rebuttal…if you can call 54.1 innings and nine starts sterling. Last year he did have his best ratios as a pitcher for his career with a 2.65 ERA and a 3.46 K:BB ratio. But his xFIP of 3.47 said adjustments would’ve come and he was also pitching in arguably the worst offensive division in the MLB last year, especially when it comes to K/9 rates and he still only managed a measly 7.45. Now he’s moving back to the AL, a league where his best ERA ever was 3.84 and his best K/9 in a season lasting longer than 15 starts is 7.71. I hear you snoring back there so lets bring the T.J. into the hizouse! This is where you have to believe in House figuring it out. He didn’t exactly wow us in the first half with his 4.40 ERA nor his 6 K/9…*PBBT*, woah, sorry. Fell asleep and thankfully farted loud enough to wake myself back up. Where was I…oh yeah, something clicked in his 57 second half innings. House had a 2.53 ERA down the stretch to go with a healthy 7.89 K/9 and a miniscule 1.74 BB/9 ratio. Remember Grey’s rule of 6+ when it comes to starters? Having a difference between K/9-BB/9 of over 6 usually puts you in good company. Welcome to the fold, House! Now obviously the sample size is small and I strongly doubt he’s a sub-3 ERA kind of pitcher but if he can keep his ratios in the 7.5 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 area, you’re looking at a solid end of rotation starter for your deep league team. And if the end of 2014 was the sign of a breakout? Well, by comp magic, pitchers who come close to his second half results from 2014 include James Shields, Brandon McCarthy, and Hisashi Iwakuma. When you factor in his extreme GB% of 60.9%, these comps don’t seem as crazy as it would initially suggest. Simply put, if this T.J. second half was real, House might be a household name by the end of 2015.
