Last time we chatted, I talked about some National League players who, even this early in the pre-season, had already gained or lost value for me in terms of how likely I was to draft them. This time, we’ll look at a handful of AL guys. Free agents are finally signing and we’ll soon be getting all kind of reports from spring training, so player values are likely to fluctuate greatly over the coming weeks. But for now, I’m just looking at a few players who my opinion has changed on since the end of last season. I am taking into consideration anything I’ve read, or stats I’ve looked at more closely, and am paying particular attention to early NFBC ADP to see how the rest of the fantasy world’s opinion is affecting how likely I am to draft certain players. Sometimes, by the way, “bad” news on a player might, weirdly enough, make me more likely to draft him. For instance, last time out I mentioned Archie Bradley as someone I wouldn’t reach for due to several factors, including the presence of Brad Boxberger. Since then, D-Backs GM Mike Hazen has said he expects a “competition” for the closer job this spring. So while there’s no way I’d touch him at his current NFBC ADP, if others heed this warning and start to steer clear of Bradley, I’ll happily take a flyer on him if his price falls low enough. In the meantime, here are some AL guys who I’m feeling a little differently about now that I did last November:
Moving Up:
Marwin Gonzalez. I feel like no one wants to be stuck holding the hot potato that Gonzalez may turn into this season, but even if he has some expected regression, I am willing to give him a shot at his current draft price (his overall NFBC ADP is currently #118). He’s on the best offensive team in baseball, and qualifies all over the place – two things that can be extremely enticing in the deep-league world.
Yonder Alonso. He has the same issue as Gonzalez – no one wants to pay now for what appears to be a career year in 2017. But again, everyone seems so worried about being the one to pay for last year’s power outburst, that I feel Alonso could end up being a decent value in deep leagues. I’d take him ahead of Yangervis Solarte or Brandon Belt, guys who are being drafted ahead of him (when you rank corner infielders, Alonso comes in at #56 according to current NFBC ADP). Even with a power regression, he should provide plenty of runs and RBI in the Cleveland lineup, and maybe knowing he’s had a gig locked up since December while so many free agents are still in limbo will put him in an extra-positive headspace heading into 2018.
Willie Calhoun. Sure, there’s a chance his incredibly impressive bat won’t translate at the major league level, but it’s hard not to be optimistic here, and right now I’d buy him all day long at his current NFBC ADP of #263, just after guys like Shin Soo-Choo, Josh Harrison, and Starlin Castro. Also, it seems like players of the offense-only variety occasionally slip through the cracks a bit in fantasy because folks are looking at rankings that take defense into account. Particularly in AL-only or other deep leagues, he’s one of those guys I’d rather pay too much for now and worry about it later if he busts in 2018, rather than being sad if I pass him up and watch him be one the difference-makers that carries an opponent’s team to fantasy baseball victory.
Jake Odorizzi. I’d rather have a good set-up guy than a starter that I know is going to be bad, but in a deep league, there are times I’d rather have a starter that could be good – or at least serviceable — than a set-up guy. Odorizzi’s NFBC ADP is #106, sandwiched between Dellin Betances and David Robertson, which is why I bring this up. I may draft Odorizzi and dump him to the waiver wire by May, but with starting pitching as putrid as it’s been lately, I’ll give him a look here (and if he gets traded to a particularly fantasy friendly landing spot, all the better.)
Eddie Rosario/Trey Mancini. These two kind of fall into a different category. You’ve read about how smart you’d be to draft them here at Razzball, and I love both of them this year and had both targeted heading into my first draft last month, but neither fell to me where I was thinking they would. The change, in this case, is that they both are being drafted a bit higher than I expected/hoped (Rosario’s overall NFBC ADP is #118, Mancini’s is #155). I’m interested enough in them, though, that instead of cutting bait, I just know I need to reel them in a bit earlier than planned.
Moving Down:
Miguel Cabrera. I know it’s comparing apples to oranges, but I don’t see me drafting Cabrera 87th overall, his current NFBC ADP, ahead of the likes of Masahiro Tanaka (#99) or Luis Castillo (#101). Even if Miggy bounces back somewhat this year, it’s hard to believe his numbers will justify taking him this soon… I’d rather take a top first baseman early, or wait and hope to find some 1B value later in a draft. Either way, I’m gonna be looking for some juicy pitching in between, not hitching my wagon to a star that, unfortunately, may be continuing to fade.
Brian McCann. Again, taking a guy who used to be really good over a guy who might be really good now is not my cup of tea. He’s being drafted as the 7th or 8th AL catcher off the board (depending on where Jonathan Lucroy winds up), which puts him way too high overall in my opinion. Catchers are likely to disappoint you no matter when you draft them, so why not wait until later when you don’t have to pass up potentially interesting players like Yuli Gurriel or Mitch Haniger, both of whom are being drafted within a few spots of McCann? Steamer has him projected for a .235 average and 16 home runs this year – blech. I was thinking of keeping him in a deep AL-only auction league, but even at a decent $12 price, I don’t think it’s worth locking up the money – who knows what opportunity those extra funds afford me late in our auction if I plan to just grab a catcher for a buck or two instead.
Fernando Rodney. I guess I might have considered selecting Rodney very late in a draft, if I was desperate in a deep league, when it looked like he had no competition in the Minnesota bullpen. But it really surprises me that his NFBC ADP was as high as it is now (#95 overall), let alone this long after the Addison Reed signing. I’d much rather take a chance on Shane Greene, who is being drafted a spot lower than him.
