IFFB, how can I explain it
I’ll take it frame by frame it
To have y’all all jumping, shouting, saying it
I is for the in, F is for the field, F is for the fly, don’t be the scumbag guy
The last B, well that’s very simple
Okay, I’ll stop now. That was my feeble attempt to pay homage to NAUGHTY BY NATURE. Damn, I feel old now. GET OFF MY DAMN LAWN!!!
What’s IFFB? If you just Googled it…and enjoyed what you saw, then I don’t know what to tell you. I just got you to Google it huh?
IFFB is Infield Flyball percentage. As Fangraphs states, they are the “worst batted ball type for batters, as they almost always lead to an out.” Hence, the Scumbag Steve picture up top. They suck so bad that MLB had to institute a rule that calls for the umpires to call a batter out even if the fielder drops the ball. Granted, the rule is only implemented when there are runners on base, but still. IFFB is basically a strikeout without adversely affecting a player’s strikeout percentage. You don’t think Scott Boras knows that?
So why IFFB for this week’s Bear or Bull? It’s the stat that has me leaning toward Francisco Lindor over Xander Bogaerts. You just moved up to the edge of your chair in anticipation of what’s to come next, right? If you didn’t, you’re lying.
Lindor and Bogaerts are very similar players. Below is the tale of the tape:
| 2016 Stats | Lindor | Bogaerts |
|---|---|---|
| HR | 15 | 21 |
| RUNS | 99 | 115 |
| RBI | 78 | 89 |
| SB | 19 | 13 |
| BB% | 8.3% | 8.1% |
| K% | 12.9% | 17.1% |
| SwStr% | 7.7% | 8.3% |
| Contact% | 83.6% | 81.7% |
Bogaerts has a little more pop, but Lindor has a little more speed. Both play in good offenses with Lindor slated to bat third and Bogaerts second. Early drafters are also viewing the two similarly, as NFBC ADP has Bogaerts being selected, on average, with the 27th pick and Lindor at 29. The only discernible difference between the two is in physical stature, as Lindor is 5′ 11″ 190 pounds and Bogaerts is 6′ 1″ 210 pounds. So why do I like Lindor more?
You think it has anything to do with IFFB?
Bogaerts popped up 17.8% of the time last season. Lindor? 5.3% The 17.8% mark was good for 2nd in all of baseball. You know who was first? My good buddy, the ToddFather. If you don’t know how I feel about the ToddFather, please click here. Now, the best article I found on IFFB was written by Jeff Zimmerson on Fangraphs.com, way back in 2012. Click here if you want your baseball IQ to increase. The key thing I took away from that article is that “high and inside is by far the best location to induce a fly ball.” Bear with me as I try and connect some dots here. Bogaerts pulled the ball 44.5% of the time last year. It makes sense, as the Green Monster at Fenway precipitates that kind of approach for right-handed batters. According to his spray chart for 2016, all of his home runs went to left field. Now, when I look at the heatmap for pitch distribution, I see a ton of pitches low and away. When I look at the heatmap for swing%, I see an inordinate amount of swings on pitches off the plate inside and high and tight. So, basically the plan is to pitch him away and bust him in to keep him honest. I wish I could post the picture of the heatmap here, but I can’t. If you want to take a look, go here. Bogaerts tries to be patient like a jaguar stalking his prey. He waits for a mistake, middle in, then pounces. The thing is, I think he gets a little unbalanced at times, which could explain his high IFFB rate. If pitchers are able to execute low and away, that forces him out of his happy place and expand the zone. Now, not only is he vulnerable to the pitch away in the dirt, but the inside heat that he’s been waiting for is able to get in on him. Hence, the high IFFB rate. Going back to the swing% heatmap, there are 8 zones on the most outer limits, basically balls furthest from the strike zone. In 5 of those zones, Bogaerts has a swing percentage over 20%. Remember that happy place I referenced earlier? Well, that’s definitely not it. This is just my theory. I don’t know if it’s a good or bad one, but it’s a theory nonetheless. Please, if you can break it down better for me, comment away, as I’m always open to learning more about this beautiful game.
Lindor, on the other hand, seems to have a more balanced approach at the plate. In the 8 outer zones I referenced above, Lindor only has 3 with a swing percentage above 20%, with 4 under 10%. Bogaerts did not have one zone under 10%. There’s a huge divergence in the number of up-and-in pitches that Lindor and Bogaerts swing at as well. I think this signifies a big difference in hitting philosophy. Bogaerts goes inside/out, while Lindor looks outside/in. One approach is not better than the other, as both bring success. I do believe that the inside/out approach leaves you susceptible to the outside pitch, which can then get you unbalanced and out of kilter. Personally, I prefer the outside/in approach, but understand that it’s not necessarily conducive to huge power, unless your name is Miguel Cabrera or Albert Pujols, when he was a machine. With that said, Lindor did pull the ball 39% of the time, so it’s not like he’s Juan Pierre. He just seems to do a great job at turning on pitches when they come inside, while remaining balanced in his approach.
Before y’all pounce on me like ravenous tigers, Bogaerts is an amazing player. So is Lindor. When two players are so close in many ways, there needs to be tie-breaker. I first went with uniform color, but that didn’t help much. That’s why I went with IFFB, because that was the only thing that stood out to me. Plus, if you’ve ever read anything of mine in the past, then you know I have a need for speed and Lindor provides a little more in that department.
For this week’s VERDICT, I present to you a bull sitting on a fence:
