Crime often pays because A) a product is obtained for free and sold at a markup (this can also include certain services as well) or B) a product or service is provided at an exhorbitant markup due to its illegal nature. It’s not all reward, though, as there are significant risks in these ventures, the most obvious coming from law enforcement. As a result, many of resources need to be allocated to stay one step ahead of the 5-0 in order to stay in business and flourish. Which brings me to Ramon Laureano of the Oakland Athletics, who has been a Top 40 player over the past month and the #4 player over the past seven days. Is this just a lucky streak or has he discovered something in order to stay out of fantasy jail and prosper?
Laureano is 24 years old, 5′ 11″ and 185 pounds. He was drafted by the Houston Astros in 2014 then traded to the Oakland Athletics in 2017. During his minor league career, he had a high of 14 home runs and 33 stolen bases. The strikeout rate was in the 21-26% range, while the walk rate fluctuated from 6% to as high as 14%. Despite the small stature, Laureano posted an ISO over .200 in two of the five minor league seasons, so he’s not just a light-hitting defensive wizard.
Last season, he played in 48 games with the big club and accrued 176 plate appearances. He had a .288/.358/.474 slash and ended with 5 home runs, 27 runs, 19 RBI, and 7 stolen bases. The walk rate was 9.1% while the strikeout rate was 28.4%. Not bad, but nothing spectacular. As a result, he was essentially forgotten in drafts coming into the 2019 season. On average, he was the #226 overall player selected and #53 outfielder.
For the first month and a half, he delivered 3 home runs and 3 stolen bases, but with a 28.2% strikeout rate and .234 batting average. In May, the average spiked up to .285 while the strikeout rate ticked down to 26%. The BABIP was an inflated .362, so that month looks to be predicated on luck. For June, the BABIP came down to .277, but the average remained at .286. The strikeout rate crumbled to 17.6% while the counting stats were voluminous: 5 home runs, 12 runs, 16 RBI, and 4 stolen bases. When looking through all the data, there were two things that jumped out to me: increased aggressiveness and success against left-handed pitching.
During the first third of the season, Laureano was swinging at 62.1% of pitches in the strike zone and 44.8% of pitches in general. In May, those numbers increased to 67% and 50.1% respectively. For the month of June, they are at 74.2% and 52.7%. Correspondingly, the walk rate has gone from 6% to 4.8% to 3.8%. Can’t get a hit if you don’t swing the bat. Now, red flags usually goes up when I see trends like that, but while the chase rate has gone up 4-5%, that number is still below 36% and the swinging strike rate is in the 10-12% range. Adjustments will be coming from pitchers, so it will be interesting to see how Laureano adjusts, but what gives me some optimism is that this streak doesn’t feel like he’s selling out for power and just hacking away like Jim Duggan.
Throughout his major league career, Laureano has had more success against right-handed pitching. While he strikes out more against them, the career ISO and batting average are .087 and .041 higher than against left-handed pitching. During the streak over the past month, he’s had 27 out of 117 (23%) plate appearances against LHP: .385 average, .946 OPS, .154 ISO, and 11.1% strikeout rate. The BABIP is an elevated .409, though. I’ll side with the career numbers here and expect some regression against lefties.
For most of the season, Laureano has been relegated towards the bottom of the lineup. Since May 29th, he was batting in the 8, 8, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 8, 7, 8, 7, 7, 7, 7, 6, and 7 holes. Then, on Monday June 17th, Grey wrote: “Okay, it’s time, A’s. Move him up the gee-dee lineup!” Ta-Da! Since that post, Laureano has batted in the 5 hole for two games. Grey, you are too good.
Anyways, unfortunately, I don’t see the good times continuing. He will likely regress against lefties and the aggressiveness at the plate will probably be exploited by pitchers in the short term. Then it comes back to the good old adjust to the adjustments from the adjustments, which will lead to the A’s sending him back to the 7 and 8 holes in the lineup. Steamer has him projected for 10 home runs with 8 stolen bases and a .254 batting average the rest of the way. I think that’s fair. So, while I think Laureano won’t be able to continue his hot streak, I do think he will have some utility. Keep that in mind when you gawk at my verdict.
VERDICT
