The Allais Paradox:
Gamble A: 100% chance of receiving $1 million.
Gamble B: 10% chance of receiving $5 million, 89% chance of receiving $1 million, and 1% chance of receiving nothing.
Gamble C: 11% chance of receiving $1 million, and an 89% chance of receiving nothing.
Gamble D: 10% chance of receiving $5 million, and a 90% chance of receiving nothing.
Most people would choose A over B, less money for no risk. Those same people would choose D over C, though, more money for more risk. Below is the expected value for each:
| Gamble | Expected Value |
|---|---|
| A | $1 million |
| B | $1.39 million |
| C | $110,000 |
| D | $500,000 |
* Formulas for the above can be found here.
Therein lies the paradox. If you are about expected value, you choose B and D, especially since the probabilities are the same.
You know what the real paradox is, though? I’m Asian, math SAT score was almost-perfect, English SAT score was ESL-esque (I was born in this country), and I get paid (not much) to write and I barely understand the Allais Paradox. No wonder my parents disowned me (They didn’t really, but I wouldn’t blame them if they did).
Damnit SON!!! What is all this mumbo jumbo and what does it have to do with Paxton and Urías?
The goal of fantasy baseball is to win, right? A way to achieve that goal is to maximize value and take risks. So sit down and enjoy this little tune to get you into the right frame of mind…
According to NFBC ADP data as of 3/26/2017, James Paxton is the 42nd SP and 164th overall player off the board. Urías is the 44th SP and 172nd overall player being selected.
Julio Urías is the 20-year-old, left-handed pitcher for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He has impressed from day one, when the Dodgers signed him as a 16-year-old out of Mexico. In 77 major league innings last season, he compiled a 3.39 ERA with a 9.82 K/9 and 3.62 BB/9. He has an effective four-pitch arsenal (fastball, slider, curveball, and change). Really impressive stuff from such a young pitcher.
Paxton, on the other hand, is 28 years old and has had his ups-and-downs, primarily due to injury. In 2014, he went on the disabled list for a strained left oblique and shoulder inflammation. In 2015, a strained tendon in his left middle finger shut him down. Last year, he had a start pushed back due to a torn fingernail and missed games due to a sore pitching elbow after getting hit with a line drive. Prior to last year, Paxton had never pitched more than 75 major league innings in a season and routinely had a K/9 in the 7 range and BB/9 around 3.
So, take Urías and call it a day right? On the surface, he seems to be the safer play, kind of like choosing Gamble A above. But is that the best expected value? I’d argue no, and here’s why.
As talented as Urías is, there’s a definite innings cap for him this season. He did pitch 122 combined innings last season, but some of that was due to the multitude of injuries the Dodgers’ starting rotation suffered. Many of those pitchers are healthy and could be in the mix this season. The projection systems have Urías slated for around 100 innings. That number could be more, especially if injuries occur again, but the Dodgers will continue to bring along their young stud slowly. They are playing the long game.
If you guys have read my previous stuff, you know I got the need for speed. That’s one of the main reasons I fell in love with Danny Duffy last year. The same thing goes for James Paxton. After utilizing a new arm slot, his fastball velocity ticked up almost 3 mph to around 97 mph. Holla!!! As a result, his K/9 went up to 8.70 and swinging strike rate went to 11.7%, after never eclipsing the 10% threshold. Contact rate in the strike zone went down 5% (from 90 to 85), while contact rate in general went down 6% (from 82 to 76). Batters swung at 32% of pitches outside the strike zone. That number was 21% the prior year! To top it all off, his BB/9 was a paltry 1.79!!
I just smoked a pack of cigs, so I’m ready to get back down to business.
I love both of these pitchers. The differentiation is a simple one for me, though. Straight Innings Homie. Paxton could throw 200 innings. Will he? Past history says no, but all the investment firms say that past performance is not indicative of future returns. I’m going to side with Wall Street on this one. Now, there’s certainly more risk with Paxton, as he could land on the disabled list again, but now you know why I opened up this post with the Allais Paradox. What if he does stay healthy and pitches 200 innings? There’s no way that Urías even approaches that number. The higher expected value is on the Paxton side.
VERDICT
