Move it! Step aside! Get out of the way! All hands on deck. Get the chief surgeon and have him immediately prep for surgery. Beeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeep.
Dup-dup…..dup-dup…..dup-dup……
BT is 98.6 degrees. BP is 110/70. HR is 87 bpm. RR is 16 bpm. Patient is stable now. As the doctor snapped on his latex gloves, he asked to no one in particular, “What the hell happened here?”
At the exact same moment, in an apartment 15 minutes from Fenway Park, an eight-year boy donning a Red Sox cap looked up at his daddy and asked, “Is he dead?”
Eduardo Rodriguez has pitched 8 innings so far in 2019. He’s walked 6 batters, given up 2 home runs, and allowed 11 earned runs. As a result, he’s been one of the most dropped players in ESPN leagues over the past week (71.5% owned – decrease of 18%). Is there hope?
The first thing I checked was the velocity. Fangraphs has his fastball averaging 91.9 mph. The prior three seasons, that number was above 93 mph. Ok, there’s room for improvement in that department.
It’s been documented that the Red Sox wanted to ease all of their starting pitchers into the season. Well, if by easing they meant having all their starters get shelled, then mission accomplished. I kid, kind of. We all know about Chris Sale and his struggles, but Nathan Eovaldi, Rick Porcello, and David Price have all started the year slowly. There does seem to be an organizational philosophy that has, at least, contributed to the slow start for the pitching staff, which provides some optimism that better times are in store when everyone gets up to speed.
All the buzz during Spring Training focused on Rodriguez’s new pitch, which was mentioned as being a slider. Well, according to Fangraphs, he’s thrown the slider just 3.2% of the time. He only threw 15 innings during Spring Training, so it would make sense that he’s not completely comfortable utilizing the pitch yet. After the last outing against the Athletics, Rodriguez mentioned that he didn’t have confidence in his fastball, a pitch that he throws 54.5% of the time and is his bread and butter. If he doesn’t have confidence in that pitch, then no wonder he’s in the ER.
When I look at the plate discipline numbers, it all makes sense. Batters are locked in and just waiting for their pitch. The O-Swing% is 22.6%. That number is routinely at or above 30%. In addition, batters are swinging 6% less at pitches in general. Like sharks that smell blood, batters are just patiently hovering around the kill zone, knowing that ER is battling, and are pouncing when he has to challenge. Remember that the fastball velocity is 2 mph slower.
Most of the numbers aren’t pretty, but there are two that point to some positive regression. The .452 BABIP and 52.1 LOB%. ER’s career BABIP is .296 and the strand rate is 73.4%. Now, those numbers don’t just magically move in favor of a pitcher. There does have to be tangible improvement. It’s early in the season and I do believe that all the Red Sox pitchers will improve once they get situated. The velocity should return for ER, which will give him more confidence in the pitch. Once that foundation is set, the offspeed pitches will be more effective and, hopefully, we see the much-hyped slider he was displaying in Spring Training.
VERDICT
