I knew this girl in high school that got bored easily and always needed that tinge of drama or danger in her life. She was definitely not the missionary type. She enjoyed conflict because it made her feel alive. On the other hand, I knew girls that just reveled in the safety of companionship. Did I just humble brag that I actually knew a girl? Indeed, and not just one girl but girls with that capital “S”!!! My parents knew what they were doing when they named me Stan Son. Shout out to Momma and Poppa Son.
The differences are what make life awesome, interesting, and fun to experience. And so it is in the fantasy baseball world. There are so many ways to attack the maze that, more often than not, our personal biases and philosophies will dictate which player we choose.
Case in point, compare Daniel Murphy with Rougned Odor. They both play second base, bat left-handed, and are being selected close to each other in fantasy drafts, but they are very different players. The one you select will shed light on your personality, so let’s delve into each a little further and see if you are indeed a psycho that likes to live dangerously!!!
ROUGNED ODOR
Since I like to inject a little music into my articles, here is this week’s choice.
As of 2/12/17, Odor is being selected, on average, with the 40th overall pick and 6th second baseman. His 2016 was phenomenal as he clubbed 33 home runs, scored 89 runs, drove in 88, stole 14 bases, and did…
No Fs given. He’s definitely not a missionary dude. At least I don’t think so. Comment if you have a differing opinion. Now, Steamer has Odor projected for 27 home runs and 13 stolen bases. That power/speed combo is super sexy, but sexiness always comes with a price, if you know what I mean.
Odor walked 3% last year. 3%!!! A career-low by a big margin. In fact, he was the major league leader? loser? I don’t know. He walked the fewest times out of every single player. His strikeout rate also increased to a career-high 21.4%. Now, here are the players with over 20 home runs with a 4% or fewer walk rate: Odor, Didi Gregorius, Jonathan Schoop, Starlin Castro, Freddy Galvis, and Salvador Perez. Freddy Galvis?! Would it surprise you to know that all of those players had the worst BB/K rates?
| Player | Rank | BB/K |
|---|---|---|
| Rougned Odor | 1 | 0.14 |
| Jonathan Schoop | 2 | 0.15 |
| Freddy Galvis | 3 | 0.18 |
| Salvador Perez | 4 | 0.18 |
| Marwin Gonzalez | 5 | 0.19 |
| Starlin Castro | 6 | 0.2 |
| Starling Marte | 7 | 0.22 |
| Yasmany Tomas | 8 | 0.23 |
| Matt Kemp | 9 | 0.23 |
| Didi Gregorius | 10 | 0.23 |
That’s 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, and 10 for those keeping at score. Here’s what I think about those players replicating their production from last year.
Odor swung at more pitches, especially out of the strike zone. As a result, his swinging strike percentage went up and contact rates went down. Now, to be fair, his hard hit percentage spiked up, fly ball % increased, HR/FB increased, while lowering the infield fly ball %. He did hit 33 home runs for goodness sakes. There is no doubt that Odor is talented. Pitchers are going to make mistakes and he will run into more than one home run on the season. With that said, his more aggressive approach and unwillingness to take a walk, is going to make it easier for pitchers to attack him. Personally, there’s huge upside with Odor, but he’s an easy fade for me at his cost. I am only a situational YOLOer.
DANIEL MURPHY
Murphy is being selected, on average, with the 38th overall pick and 5th second baseman. He definitely likes missionary. Actually, it’s always the innocent looking and quiet ones that are the freakiest. With that said, I love Murphy a lot this year. That’s not to say that I only like missionary, as I explained that I YOLO situationally and have “borrowed” the Kama Sutra books from the library. BTW, missionary is underrated in my opinion. For proper context, I’m married with two kids, so use that information how you will. Ok, back to Murphy. He’s an excellent hitter with great control of the strike zone. He hit .347 with a .348 BABIP last year, so those numbers will probably regress. With that said, you’re still looking at a low-.300s hitter. He walks 6% while only striking out 10% of the time. He hit 25 home runs last year and will probably hit close to 20. I’m fairly confident in his new-found home run stroke because he’s made a more conscious effort to hit fly balls and pull the ball more. His ground ball rate fell below 40% for the first time last year and fly ball rate ticked above 40% for the first time as well. In addition, his pull % ticked up to 41%. His contact rates are elite, like 8th-best in all of baseball elite, and he doesn’t swing at many pitches outside the zone. Couple all of this with the fact that he will bat 3rd in the Nationals lineup, behind Adam Eaton and Trea Turner, and in front of Bryce Harper. That got me going like:
VERDICT
I think it’s pretty apparent. Therefore, I will leave you with this:
