Over the past few weeks, we’ve taken a closer look at veteran players such as David Ortiz, Matt Holliday, and Adrian Beltre to determine how much gas is left in their respective tanks and whether or not they’re still capable of being the same fantasy studs that we’ve come to know over the past several years. Players who, in terms of their MLB careers, are in the autumn of the year as the late, great Frank Sinatra might say. However, this column’s intent isn’t to focus solely on the old guard who would be ideal candidates to endorse a product such as this. Now that it’s just about two months (or almost one-third of the way) into the 2015 regular season, the sample size has become significant enough to be able to identify the players who have exhibited significant changes in skills or approach that could lead to sustainable changes in performance and production moving forward. That brings us to Mike Moustakas.
As the #2 overall pick in the 2007 MLB draft, Moose was considered to be one of the best prospects in the game and a potential impact player at the big league level. After steadily advancing through the Royals minor league system and being productive at each stop, most notably hitting .352 with 21 homers and 76 runs batted in across 66 games in AA ball in 2010, Moose was called up to the majors in June 2011. Here’s how he’s fared in his MLB career to date (through Tuesday):
| Season | G | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 89 | 365 | 5 | 26 | 30 | 2 | 6.00% | 14.00% | 0.104 | 0.296 | 0.263 | 0.309 | 0.367 |
| 2012 | 149 | 614 | 20 | 69 | 73 | 5 | 6.40% | 20.20% | 0.171 | 0.274 | 0.242 | 0.296 | 0.412 |
| 2013 | 136 | 514 | 12 | 42 | 42 | 2 | 6.20% | 16.10% | 0.131 | 0.257 | 0.233 | 0.287 | 0.364 |
| 2014 | 140 | 500 | 15 | 45 | 54 | 1 | 7.00% | 14.80% | 0.149 | 0.22 | 0.212 | 0.271 | 0.361 |
| 2015 | 42 | 184 | 4 | 26 | 15 | 1 | 4.30% | 9.80% | 0.151 | 0.352 | 0.331 | 0.385 | 0.482 |
Prior to this season, Moose had been a below average offense player. He only managed to steal 10 bases in his first 3-and-a-half seasons, while experiencing declines in batting average and on-base percentages during each of those first four years. As you can see, it’s been a completely different story thus far this season, however. Strikeouts are down, while his triple slash line has improved from .236/.290/.379 through 2014 to .331/.385/.482 this season. While that’s an incredible improvement, his current .352 BABIP sticks out like a sore thumb. As a dead pull hitter who’s been susceptible to hitting into opposing teams’ defensive shifts since early last season, that number is sure to come crashing down, right?
Let’s take a look at some batted ball data to try to determine what’s led to the elevated BABIP mark this season:
| Season | BABIP | GB/FB | LD% | GB% | FB% | Pull% | Cent% | Oppo% |
| 2011 | 0.296 | 0.93 | 20.40% | 38.40% | 41.20% | 40.20% | 37.10% | 22.70% |
| 2012 | 0.274 | 0.68 | 16.40% | 33.80% | 49.80% | 43.50% | 34.50% | 22.10% |
| 2013 | 0.257 | 0.82 | 18.80% | 36.60% | 44.50% | 49.80% | 29.40% | 20.80% |
| 2014 | 0.22 | 0.94 | 20.20% | 38.60% | 41.20% | 50.50% | 28.10% | 21.40% |
| 2015 | 0.352 | 1.19 | 21.10% | 42.90% | 36.10% | 34.40% | 29.80% | 35.80% |
Moustakas is hitting more line drives and ground balls, and less fly balls, and most importantly, he’s hitting them at a much higher clip to the opposite field than in previous years. That’s a recipe for success when your opponent only has one player positioned on the left side of the infield. It looks like all of the offseason work that he put into beating the shift has been worthwhile.
But is this sudden ability to overcome the shift sustainable? Let’s take a look at the batted ball data for balls that are specifically hit to the opposite field:
Well, that certainly helps to explain his elevated BABIP this season. Moustakas has seen a drastic decline in his fly ball percentage and a significant increase in his line drive percentage when hitting balls the other way. Even the slight increase in ground balls increases the likelihood of a base hit when there’s only one defender covering the area between second and third base.
As encouraging as his new approach appears to be concerning a sustainable improvement in batting average, there are a couple of other things to consider when evaluating Moustakas. His 36.1% FB% would represent a career low, and coupled with a medicore 274.61 ft average fly ball distance (134th out of 211 qualified players), it paints the picture of a 15 homer player. Also, despite a 21.5% LD% which would represent a career high, Moose’s 25.5% hard hit percentage ranks just 130th out of 170 qualifiers. That indicates that he’s not consistently hitting the ball with authority despite his elevated line drive rate.
Moustakas’ dedication to his craft and changes that he’s made to improve his results against the shift have made him more of a real-life asset to the defending World Series champion Royals. From a fantasy perspective, however, mediocre power numbers and on-base skills leave a lot to be desired, especially from a corner infielder.
Final Verdict:
