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The Marlins had high hopes this year coming off a crazy playoff chase fueled partially by Covid-based rule changes and the emergence of RHP Sixto Sanchez. 2022 was a different story—a coming-back-to-earth for the cellar dwelling fish—but that’s in the past after today, and the future remains bright in South Beach.

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I was putting the finishing touches on my top 10 prospects piece for the Miami Marlins when a curious news blurb came across my feed. The Pittsburgh Pirates would be calling up RHP Roansy Contreras to start Wednesday’s game. “Blimey!” I shouted like a scurvy landlubber walking the plank. “We’ve been hornswaggled!” 

I was confused, in other words, and have been circling the briney deep in my mind ever since, sailing around the pros and cons like an old seadog scanning for land.

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Atlanta is finishing a painful but impressive season, bottoming out at one point after losing Mike Soroka and Ronald Acuña Jr. for the year on top of missing Ian Anderson–not to mention the Marcel Ozuna saga. 

They could’ve done the cool kid thing and stopped trying. Instead, they traded for a whole new outfield of misfit toys–Jorge Soler, Joc Pederson, and Adam Duval–that selling teams no longer wanted on the payroll, sacrificing next to nothing from their farm in the process and putting together another potentially division-winning club, their fourth in a row if they can hold off the Phillies, who are just one game back as I type this on Saturday night. 

If Atlanta can power through, they’ll have benefited from being in baseball’s wonkiest division, but a win is a win, and who knows, perhaps this team that figures to win about 85 games will outperform much better regular season squads in the postseason, and even if they fall short, their minor league system looks better to me than it has since Acuña graduated. 

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I’m often referencing the echo chamber in this space, and sometimes I’ll throw in a specific citation even though I’m not here to drag other prospect people in specific as much as I’m here to help readers find value in general. A big part of finding value is knowing who’s free and who’s a helium-filled fever dream. When a deep lens into the echo chamber crossed my Twitter feed this week courtesy of High Upside Fantasy, it seemed like something I should share here. 

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Curious events in Cincinnati lead the way this week, as it probably hasn’t since Jerry Springer was running that town. Director of Pitching Initiatives / Pitching Coordinator Kyle Boddy has stepped away from the club this week, citing creative differences with the front office while heaping praise on major league pitching coach Derek Johnson. 

Click here for the full press release

The timing is odd, given the Reds success on the farm this season and proximity to a post-season on the big league side, but I suppose there’s never an ideal time for a break-up. Cut to early-20’s me navigating the transition from summer love to school-year fade to long-term relationship fizzle to finding some fickle reason to finally call it quits. I used to really hate endings. Now I’m old as hell and appreciate any kind of pause in the monotony.

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Washington OF Victor Robles is a priority target for me this off-season because I still think he’ll someday become the .280, 20 HR, 30 SB type he appeared to be before totally forgetting how to hit. The price is definitely Bob right now. I won’t go bidding into the wind of that dreamscape on the trade market if he’s rostered by a devout Robles believer, but chances are, the Robles-heavy investor is more than ready to diversify the portfolio. 

So why should we buy?

Just hope and hype of winters past?

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The tinkering is finished for tonight.

At this point in my highway hypnosis of staring at a spreadsheet for two weeks, I’m just hoping to park the car safely.

I’d love to discuss the work with you all, so drop a thought in the comments if that appeals to you.

The only real guide I’d offer to reading these rankings is the top group is fluid. The big two of Julio Rodriguez and Bobby Witt Jr. have built their own little neighborhood. Both should have played in the majors this year. Julio is flat out embarrassing AA pitchers. I maintain my stance that Jerry Dipoto chose foolishly when he decided to push Jarred Kelenic and slam the breaks on Rodriguez, a choice he apparently made sometime back in February and never once revisited throughout the season.

After the top two, there’s not much distance between CJ Abrams at #3 and Adley Rutschman at #8, a group that’s built in part by the injuries to Abrams and Carroll and the tanking of Baltimore, Chicago and Detroit. Can make a pretty strong case that all the healthy players in the elite eight earned a shot at major league pitching this year, but that’s baseball these days. Let’s get romantic about the rest of the list!

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Pittsburgh 3B Juan Jerez is all over my Twitter feed these days, which probably says as much about my Twitter feed as it does Juan Jerez, but that’s beside the point. Juan Jerez can hit, is the point. He’s slashing .307/.400/.521 with 6 HR and 10 SB as a 19-year-old in the Complex League. Would love to see him get a crack at Low A, even for a week or so, but Pittsburgh is getting stacked up on the lower levels, so he’ll probably have to wait it out. In his last ten games, Jerez is hitting .425 with 4 HR and 4 SB. Swing mechanics work bottom to top, maximizing the thunder in his 6-foot frame. This next bit comes from the department of redundancy department if you’re here every week: Pittsburgh knows what it’s doing on the development front. A lot of their hitters look like poetry in the batter’s box. They settle like still water then strike from their core through to their hands. 

Here’s a Jerez bomb with a nice effort and assist from the left fielder. 

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I’m working through my final Top 100 update of the regular season, aiming to post it next Sunday, and it’s been a lot of fun so far. After grinding through a much quieter and quicker 2020 season, it’s amazing to me how much an actual season of baseball can change our perspective on prospect world. Earlier this year, we didn’t know if we’d have the Dominican Summer Leagues at all, and the lower level complex leagues were little more than a fuzzy possibility in the eyes of prospect diehards. With the development ladder of baseball reshaped but functional again from the ground up, the full picture of our game is coming into focus. Let’s start with a couple DSL standouts on the cusp of ascending the bottom rung. 

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Anyone getting called up for some September playing time is part of the Opening Day picture for 2022. The only real incentive to promote a player now is that it’ll be the same difference, service-time-wise, as breaking camp with that player on the roster. So although some call-ups this week seem on the surface like they’re too little too late for our fantasy purposes, they’re right on time to get us fired up about drafting these prospects as rookies in 2022 redraft leagues. 

Enter Keibert Ruiz, the primary return for Washington in the trade that sent Trea Turner and Max Scherzer to the World Champion Dodgers. 

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I have added and dropped Texas 2B Andy Ibanez more times than I can count. Or remember, rather. I guess I could count to nine or so if pressed. The time I remember best was in the Razz 30 dynasty where I’d added him over Danny Santana back in 2019, when Santana decided he’d hit 28 bombs and swipe 21 bags. Now his watch has ended, but man was I kicking myself for thinking Ibanez had earned the first look. The Razz 30 was broken into six divisions like the real league at that time, and the rival Twins landed Santana if I remember right. Think they got him in a trade for approximately nothing, which looks about right today but really impacted the standings at the time. All the while I was left staring at Andy Ibanez on my roster, waiting to execute the old rage drop. 

Well now, we’re in a world where I was right and wrong several times over: right that Ibanez could hit enough to hold down a gig, wrong to pick him up when I did, right to drop him when I did, then wrong to hesitate on picking him up. Probably wrong a few more times in the middle there, too. I struggle to just stay sunny enough about these things to convince myself I was right all along. That it just took time to materialize. This seems to be the preferred path of many in this chamber, and I can certainly see the appeal. For what it’s Weurtz, I do have Ibanez on a 15-teamer, and I’ll place a bid on him this Sunday in TGFBI, but it’s always a little painful when a guy you’ve always liked breaks through for another team. Unavoidable side effect of the churn and burn style I play, and I’m totally fine with that at the end of the day. What was I gonna do? Hold Ibanez for two years while the Rangers waited to give him a chance. Hard pass. We can do a lot with a single roster spot across time, and the benefit of getting some return on holding that spot several years down the road is far outstripped by the value in playing the game, trying to win now, cutting who you have to cut to keep the lineup legal and keep talent coming through the doors. 

So who’s knocking today? 

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Miami RHP Edward Cabrera makes his debut today against fellow rookie Josiah Gray and the World Series Champion Washington Nationals. Remember them?

Here’s what I said about Cabrera in the latest Redraft Stash List: Top Ten Fantasy Prospects for the Final Lap.

“Cabrera is striking out a lot of guys in AAA, and while his command hasn’t been sharp, a 22.5 K-BB rate ain’t bad. He’s here in part because the Marlins seem like wildcards to me, looking in from the outside, and I wouldn’t put anything past them. Not wildcards in the playoff-making sense, but you know, marching to their own drummer and whatnot.”

Pa rum pa pum pum. 

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