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Draft This: Eugenio Suarez, CIN ~Not That: Miguel Sano, MIN

Miguel Sano missed 39 games in 2017 with a stress reaction in his left leg. He underwent surgery to repair the issue, but this surgery lead to the unintended consequence of Sano bucking the trend by showing up to spring training in the “worst shape of his life.” Sano is listed as 260 pounds on Baseball Reference now, but judging from pictures at spring training he looks closer to 280+. This lack of conditioning and added pressure on his legs leaves Sano open to higher risk of future injury. On the other side, Eugenio hasn’t missed a big league game due to injury in the past two seasons.

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Draft This: Marcus Semien, OAK | Not That: Elvis Andrus, TEX

I’m trying to see if even the hate I’m about to receive is bigger in Texas. Let me get this one out of the way first that should be obvious to everyone — if you think Elvis Andrus is hitting 20 HR in a season again you are a fool on a fool’s journey. In his previous 8 major league season he averaged 4.375 HRs. His career HR/FB rate going into 2017 was 5.1%. He blew that away with an 11.6% mark in 2017. Marcus Semien on the other hand has a 27 HR season already under his belt in 2016 and would’ve reached 20 HR again in 2017 if it wasn’t for missing 81 games with a broken wrist at the beginning of the season. Wrist injuries normally should make you nervous, but Semien returned in July and is now a full year removed from the injury. Semien has legit 20+ HR power after hitting over 20 in three of his four seasons before 2017.

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I love keeper leagues. Love ‘em. Can’t get enough of ‘em. Redraft leagues are fine and all but with keeper leagues you become more connected to certain players and have an affinity for them over all others. They become the unofficial “face of your franchise” and are synonymous with your team. Hanley Ramirez will always be one of my favorite players because he was one of my keepers from 2007 (back when he was a 50 base stealing FLORIDA Marlins shortstop) until 2012. I grabbed 26 error third basemen Ryan Braun in 2007 and he was my ride or die until he was 61 games-played outfielder Ryan Braun in 2013. I still haven’t forgiven him for embarrassing the Roswell Aliens like that…

Keeper leagues add a new wrinkle to your draft strategy. You’re keeping Gary Sanchez? Great! You don’t have to decide whether you want to draft James McCann or Tucker Barnhart in the 25th round!  Keeping one of the big-4 aces? Wonderful! You can now load up on offense early and wait to take Kyle Hendricks as your second starter.

If I were writing this article pre-season 2017 pitchers would be few and far between on this list. Only Clayton Kershaw would’ve been found in the top 25. Now, in this juiced ball era, starting pitchers find themselves a bit more valuable. Although, with this universal humidor situation it’ll be interesting to see what happens to the faces of our teams. For example, the day after the Arizona Diamondbacks announced that they would utilize a humidor in their stadium I saw a tweet that said Paul Goldschmidt fell to the 15th overall pick in one draft. If they kept Paul Goldschmidt himself in a humidor for all of 2018 I’d still draft him before pick 15.

Let’s get into my methodology here. I’m going to be mainly focusing on 2018 because the future is hard to predict. However I’m not going to completely ignore that if you’re reading this article you’re probably not in a 1-year keeper league so there will be some projecting for the next few years as well. That means age will be a factor here. Joey Votto can still smash, but is 34 while his younger brother Freddie Freeman hits just as well and is only turning 29 at the end of this season. Position will also be a factor. Needing 1 second basemen in a shallow pool means that they’re more valuable than the 3-5 outfielders you’ll need. The intersectionality of speed/power and age will also be considered. Dee Gordon is turning 30 in April — how long will his legs hold up? Chone Figgins went to Seattle in his 30’s in 2012 and his career was donezo by 2013. Injury history should also be considered. Giancarlo Stanton was an MVP in 2017, but had over 500 ABs just twice in his previous 7 seasons. As a Yankee fan I’m hoping he stays healthy, but as a fantasy baseball owner I’m cautious. Have any of you actually read any of this or did you just jump straight to the chart to find your players?

Oh well, enough jibber-jabber! Let’s get into it:

The 2018 Razzball Commenter Leagues are now open! Free to join with prizes! All the exclamation points!

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Draft This: Cesar Hernandez, PHI ~ Not That: Chris Taylor, LAD

I can’t wait to break this one down for y’all. The last paragraph is gonna be a real slap in the face! Chris Taylor played the majority of his games at OF last season (and will do so this again in 2018,) but he logged 22 games at second and for the most part that’s what I think people will be drafting him to play on their teams.

Let’s get this one out of the way. From the time he was drafted in 2012 until the end of the 2016 season Chris Taylor hit 24 HR over 1,948 ABs between the Mariners and Dodgers major and minor league systems. That is about 81 ABs between HRs. In 2017 he hit a career high 21 HR in 514 ABs. That’s 1 HR every 24.5 ABs. That is over a 300% improvement. This is where I’d insert the emoji of a guy scratching his chin. Hernandez missed 36 games in 2017 with the dreaded strained oblique. However, even in only 128 games Hernandez also crushed his career high HR in 2017 with a Ruthian 9. With those extra 36 games played, it is reasonable to believe he would have reached at least 12 HR. With Taylor’s HR expected to come down and Hernandez healthy for a full season I think a reasonable expectation is for both guys to hit about 12-15 HR.

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Draft This: Justin Bour, MIA ~ Not That: Eric Hosmer, FA

Welcome to part two of an ongoing series where I take a lot of heat in the comments for telling you why you should draft one player who is going significantly later in drafts than another player. Last week saw me sliding-in cleat first at the catcher position and now I’m going to take on the lumberjacks at first base.

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In this series I’m going to be helping you find values at each position. There are players whose ADP has risen higher than their actual fantasy value based on name value or anticipated performance. Like a health-conscious cook book I’ll give you the alternatives to the unhealthy high calorie options that will give you heart trouble in a few months.

Draft This: Mike Zunino, SEA

Not That: Salvador Perez, KCR

This first recommendation is not for the risk averse. Perez is the picture perfect example of your safe, average fantasy catcher. In standard leagues where only 10-12 catchers will be drafted, Perez can be pretty attractive mid-round pick. Over his last 4 season he has a .258 average with .260, .260, .247, .268 averages over those seasons. You can pretty safely predict he’ll hit within that narrow range again in 2018. In that same time he has slightly increased his home run power over that time too: 17, 21, 22, 27 (4-year average: 22 per season.) So why would I recommend one of the most disappointing catchers over the past 4 seasons over Perez? Well when you look at their ADP and their 2017 stats — you could make the case. Well not you I guess — ME! And according to ME you should be looking at drafting a player for $1 and hoping he produces like a $10 player not drafting a player for $5 and him producing like an $5 player.

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Recently, I had the honor of participating in an industry expert post-winter meeting mock draft hosted by Scott White of CBS Sports. My strategy was simple: try not to embarrass myself and The Razz Brand. Outside of one controversial pick that was pointed out by White over on his site for the most part I’d say MISSION ACCOMPLISHED. See if you can spot that pick!

Here are the fantasy baseball luminaries I got to spend my Friday afternoon with:

  1. Ya boy, Razzball
  2. Ralph Lifshitz, Razzball
  3. Scott White, CBS Sports
  4. Justin Mason, FanGraphs
  5. Jeff Tobin, CBS Sports
  6. Lawr Michaels, Creativesports
  7. Jeff Zimmerman, FanGraphs
  8. Tim McLeod, Patton & Co
  9. Lance Brozdowski, BigThreeSports.com
  10. Chris Towers, CBS Sports
  11. Sergio Gonzalez, CBS Sports
  12. Adam Aizer, CBS Sports
  13. Please, blog, may I have some more?

This is the last issue of Ambulance Chasers for the MLB! I’ll be switching over to the NFL starting next week on Razzball Football. I’ll be trading in my DL-60’s and DL-10’s for PUP’s, Q’s, O’s and D’s. Lots and lots of big ol’ D’s. If you have still have fantasy baseball injury questions you can find me on Twitter and ask me: here.

Nine starting pitchers got bit by the injury bug this week, most of them Dodgers. I feel like there’s been a Dodger in every issue of Ambulance Chasers this year.  Since there are so many starting pitchers on the DL I’ll be giving you three fill in options at the bottom of this article rather than struggling to find nine viable starters on your waivers. What? You want me to recommend Clayton Richard? Let me have my pride!

Click here to join my RCL Fantasy Football league on Fantrax!

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Thank Cobb this injury wasn’t worse. After failing to stick the landing on his improvised triple lutz down the first base line, Bryce Harper owners ran to their bobble head and starting lineup figure shrines to pray to the old baseball Gods and the new (Praise Be to Frank Thomas.) Luckily, there was no knee meat damaged in the play which is good, but it is still looking like a mid-September return from a bone bruise in his knee. But Harper is just crazy and young enough to beat that time frame. Funnily enough, the first few suggestions when you start to type “bone bruise” into Google are “bone bruise knee,” “bone bruise heal time” and “bone bruise knee heal time.” Fantasy managers are so quick to become amateur physicians when their players go down. How you handle a Harper replacement could be key to you making & surviving your playoffs. Stash or Trash: Stash. Fill In: Say it with me now: “Goosfraba.” No one man can replace Harper. Now that that’s out of the way let’s see what we’re working with. You know who you should grab before it’s too late? Eddie Rosario (37%.) Since July 1st Rosario has a .333 average with 20 runs, 6 HR, 22 RBI and 3 SB — 5 of those HR have come in his last 8 games. Is this realistic? Not entirely. However, Rosario is only 25 and was a 20/20/.280 threat in his minor league days. Ride the hot hand here.

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Valar morghulis. Who could predict that throwing over 150 innings every year since Felix Hernandez turned 18 would be dangerous? Oh, everyone? In pitcher years I’m pretty sure King Felix is 63 years old. Stash or Trash: Trash. He’s predicted to miss 3 or 4 weeks and I’d hate for you to stash Felix and miss your playoffs. This is the 3rd year in a row that Felix’s ERA has risen and it is now at the point where he should yield his “Mariners Ace” crown to the Kingslayer James Paxton. Fill In: German Marquez (44.7%.) It’s time for everyone’s favorite game show: “What Are This Colorado Pitcher’s Splits?!” Home: 4.31; Away: 3.86. Actually not that bad! Marquez has allowed more than 3 runs in only 4 of his 18 starts this season including his last 5 starts being quality starts.

Fantasy Football RCLs are here! Join one today to take on your favorite writers and other readers of Razzball for a chance at prizes!

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The injury bug bit HARD this week. Every player on this list is a player whose absence will have huge fantasy implications. The playoffs are right around the corner and the smartest owners will be able to manage their injuries and still come out on top. Use my advice to help take you there. With another six outfielders on the disabled list I’m going to make my outfield recommendations at the bottom of this article.

As always, leave a comment below if you have any league-specific injury questions…

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Just like last week when I had too many outfielder injuries I am going to save all my starting pitcher fill in options for the bottom of the article. There are simply not enough credible fill in starting pitchers to take seriously. Eventually you’d be asking me “Really Kerry? You want me to start Livan Hernandez this week in his celebrity softball appearance?” Yes. Yes I do. That’s really all that’s left. Unless you want me to embarrass myself and recommend Matt Cain starting in Coors Field.

As always, you’ve got league-specific injury questions? I’ve got league-specific injury answers. Leave your question in the comments below! I love talking with the Razzball community.  

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