DraftKings: Shake off Yesterday and Repeat it Today

July 1, 2015 | DraftKings |

It’s so frustrating to have just the right matchup, the research points you in the right direction and then, poof, you lose. It’s even more infuriating to see that same group of players go off the next day when you are off of them. The emptiness of the DraftKings lineup when guys like Josh Donaldson do absolutely nothing haunts like all the haunted houses in fiction rolled into one website.

So what do you do when your Dodgers stack flops when you needed it the most? When your research and everything tells you to go right back to it again the next day?

Well, you do it, you roster them again. But what about the agony it caused you? You hated those guys for what they did to you and there’s no way you’ll let them do that to you again. Don’t focus on the results, honor your process. I would say Shake It Off, but that now has been tainted by the pop song gods so we’ll just say that it will feel good when that stack or that player does come through like you thought they would.

Chris Davis and Mitch Moreland have long been guys I’ve rostered because their metrics are outstanding, especially against RHP and their fly ball rates are right in line with guys who could go deep at any time. And Tuesday night they did just that, trading a pair of HRs each in that Rangers/Orioles run fest. Good times, good times.

Research, roster, repeat…and don’t let the recent results, one way or the other, fool you.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

DraftKings: Go Ahead, Try It…Everybody’s Doing It

June 24, 2015 | DraftKings | 3 Comments

by: jasonwalker

I remember back to the heydays of the public service announcement that would grace the network telecasts of things like baseball games. (Sidenote: Apparently I also remember back to the days when folks would use the word heydey….and folks.)

One such PSA was on peer pressure and it would feature a couple of kids: One doing something they shouldn’t be doing and the other hesitating on whether to do the same or stand strong. Inevitably, the ne’er do well of the duo would say something influential like “Come on, do it.” and “Go ahead, try it, everybody’s doing it.”

Some people in the DFS realm might tell you not to roster two starting pitchers together in the same game. The thinking is that you’ll limit yourself in the all-important win points from the SP if both pitchers are in the same game. After all, only one may win.

But in DraftKings, that win isn’t always the carrot you need to chase when it comes to starting pitchers. A nice cash game score in DK would be around 120-130. A win is four points, which isn’t insignificant, but it’s a mere pittance compared to the overall number. On another site, you might see a win being worth four points, too, but the point total to cash will be around 40. So while a win is worth almost 10 percent of the cash line for that site, a win is worth around .03% on DraftKings. This frees you up to take on more risks with pitchers that may not win, but are in good positions to score some value for you.

One such situation is occurring tonight in Pittsburgh, where the Cincinnati Reds and the hometown Pirates are sharing a Vegas line of 6.5, with Gerrit Cole established as a significant favorite (-190). In situations like this, on a weak SP slate as it is tonight, you may want to tackle both sides of the 6.5 line.

The Pirates are 22nd against RHP this season and 24th overall over the last 14 days, both with over a 20% K rate. Mike Leake isn’t awesome, but he’s solid, especially on this slate, rocking a 3.20 SIERA, 3.1 K/BB ratio and a 54% groundball rate over the last 30 days.

Sure, Cole looks great and is worth being rostered at home with his nine Ks/9 IP, great control, a high groundball rate of his own and a 3.03 SIERA over the last five starts. But why not roster both?

Everybody’s doing it.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

DraftKings: Sluggers And Sluggers

June 17, 2015 | DraftKings | 3 Comments

by: jasonwalker

It can be easy to watch home run hitters and otherwise high scoring bats get above 5K and then say, no way, that’s too high to roster that guy! But if the conditions are right, and these epically awesome, and otherwise game-changing hitters can be rostered easily after you’ve applied all the other goodness and value plays, then you should absolutely do it, even if you’re slightly “downgrading” another position.

Experts all the time find their values so they can take advantage of situations like rostering Stanton against a LHP or Harper against a homer prone RHP, as he was Tuesday against Alex Colome.

Limiting yourself mentally to excluding these players, regardless of situation, will leave you out of the money in a lot of tournaments. Bryce Harper is absolutely the mashiest lefty bat going right now and is posting obscene numbers against RHP (1.247 OPS, .432 ISO, .511 wOBA, 230 RC+), so why wouldn’t you want to make room? Cost is relative and if you have the right value, then it’s worth rostering a little lower somewhere else so you can fit someone like Harp in.

Tonight, Harper faces Matt Andriese at home in Washington, where Harper’s numbers against righties….actually tick up another notch (1.339 OPS, .515 ISO, .541 wOBA, 251 RC+). Sluggers and Sluggers…it’s the new Vote Early, Vote Often!

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

DraftKings: Don’t Ignore the Trends

June 10, 2015 | DraftKings | 1 Comment

by: jasonwalker

Sometimes you think you know what a player is. He’s a stud. He’s a stiff. He’s hot. He’s not. And so on. Players get labels pretty quick as they come into our consciousness and it’s awfully hard to shake that.

The same goes for teams throughout a season. Oh, they aren’t hitting well or that’s a hitter’s park. These types of unwitting biases can keep you from rostering the exact players you need to win so it’s important that you keep investigating the trends that are going on throughout the season.

Those that though, prior to the 2014 season, that Anthony Rizzo can’t hit lefties were right…..prior to that season. In 2015, Rizzo broke out and it was, in a significant part, due to a much improved approach against LHP. Those that didn’t just accept the current track record were rewarded when they rostered Rizzo against lefties when few other people did.

This season, maybe it’s a guy like Tampa’s Erasmo Ramirez, who looks to be turning the corner as a pitcher and has put up some solid numbers so far this season. You might write him off as stinky based on prior track record or by him burning you when you did roster him, but a look at the most recent 30 days show a different story.

It’s a good idea to look at a player’s metrics over the last 30 days or so to get an idea which way the player it trending or if he’s been able to continue a trend that he hasn’t exhibited before. You’re likely to find some player emerging and give you an edge over your competitors who are still reading last month’s news.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

DraftKings: All Blah Blah The Dodgers And Rockies!

June 3, 2015 | DraftKings |

by: jasonwalker

It’s the oldest trick in DFS. Blah blah blah Rockies blah blah blah Coors blah blah blah all the money. It’s true. If you are the type to play multiple lineups in a day (as I do in low dollar contests), it behooves you to follow the blah blah and build a Rockies stack, as well as their opponent. Right now, it’s the Los Angeles Dodgers, the same early season juggernaut that sees them second in road wOBA and tops overall against RHP.

Sometimes the Coors stack goes awry, but not in this series. It’s been some delicious soft serve home runs for many of the participants, largely due to the usual questionable Rockies pitching. Now Wednesday starter Chad Bettis has been better than most Rockies starters. After all, he does sport a spiffy 3.42 SIERA, which isolates the actual skills of the pitchers. He also has missed 10% of the bats he’s faced so far this season, a good measure of the man. Same for the other side, where Michael Bolsinger has surprised, sporting a shiny 3.14 SIERA of his own.

(Sidenote: For comparison sake, Corey Kluber has a 2.45 SIERA, Chris Sale a 3.08 and Mark Buehrle is saddled with a 4.64 number.)

So does that mean you shy away from the game? By no means! There are some excellent bats to target, provided they are playing. In the interest of staying away from this obvious stack below the weekly DraftKings contest invite, here are the names I am tracking for the game today, presented without comment:

Michael McKenry, C: $3,400

Ben Paulsen, 1B: $3,300

Alexander Guerrero, 3B/OF: $3,700

Andre Ethier, OF: $4,400

Joc Pederson, OF: $5,100

The other guys, like Troy Tulowitzki, Nolan Arenado and Adrian Gonzalez, I would love to roster and with some of the picks below, maybe you can fit them in without sacrificing starting pitching. Good luck!

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

DraftKings: Know When To Walk Away, Know When To Run

May 27, 2015 | DraftKings | 10 Comments

by: jasonwalker

Daily Fantasy Baseball is a lot of fun. A tremendous amount of fun, really. I hope you can tell by our writing and coverage here that we really have a passion and a heart for this game. Every day/night we look over the slate, check out the weather, lineups, matchups, etc., and roster a team, or teams, if you like.

We watch in excitement, heartache and sometimes more heartache. We sweat, hold, pump fists, tweet, tweet some more, and then call it a night before doing it all over again. Heck, I’m smiling just thinking about it.

But here’s the thing. Sometimes, when you’re not feeling it, just walk away for the night, turn off the phone and don’t play.

Wait, what? Why would you walk away when you are having a great time? Well, maybe you’re not having a great time. Maybe it’s a slate on which you just aren’t feeling it or can’t get a handle. Take the night off. Or, at least, don’t play as much bankroll as you normally would. If you are a 10 percenter, which means 10 percent of your current balance is all you will play, at the max, then maybe on a night like I described you pare that back to 2-5 percent or only play cash games.

I love to play, but there have been times when I wished I listened to my gut and cut it back because I just didn’t know what to do at SP or struggled with putting together a fun, sound lineup for tournaments.

I’ll do my part here, I’ll give you what I think for Wednesday’s later games (330pm EST and later), the rest is up to you. Good luck!

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

DraftKings: Ignore Recency Bias and Live Free

May 20, 2015 | DraftKings | 4 Comments

by: jasonwalker

I was the last one. It didn’t matter what it was, my family was not well flush with the monies so I watched as my friends got the latest and greatest toys and game while I had to wait, and wait, and wait to get the same toy/game if I ever got it at all. On the holidays I wouldn’t open presents, we’d go down to the store and look at what I was going to get later, after getting it on layaway.

But don’t think I was any less thankful. Hey, I didn’t know any better and may have been better off in a lot of ways for having to live that way. But that’s not what I’m talking about here. When I finally did get that toy/game, it was almost always passe’, beyond its value already. Everyone else was onto the next so I made do with what I had.

In DFS, there is a similar, less warm and fuzzy things that happens when folks jump on the trending toy. They chase the previous performance and end up overpaying for what has already happened rather than look to see what was going to be the hot sexy item tomorrow.

Recency bias. It was the same thing I wrote about Corey Kluber last week. I relished the fact that I knew folks were going to steer clear because of his 5+ ERA and the fact that, most recently, he had burned them in games. Everything else was screaming that he was due to get his sexy back, but he was fairly low owned when we rostered him last Wednesday.

It’s not always a bad thing to jump aboard a bandwagon. Sometimes they run on pretty well. Kluber followed up last week’s told-you-so special with another beaut. And Bryce Harper’s heater has gone on long enough to be dangerous to the touch.

Still, chances are if you are paying based on yesterday, you’ll miss out on today. Look at everything, disregard yesterday. If your research says he should be good today, then do it, man, put him on the board! But if things aren’t in his favor, think twice and don’t do it just because he did well yesterday.

The same is true for bad performance. If you see that your guy should be good to go for his matchup, but his recent play looks stinky, don’t hesitate, beat the crowd to the performance and reap the rewards.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

DraftKings: I Still Belieeeeve

May 13, 2015 | DraftKings | 2 Comments

by: jasonwalker

There was a song in the 80’s by the surely-it-had-to-be made up stage name of Brenda K. Starr called I Still Believe. It was a typical, run of the mill, studio pop ballad sung by an artist who clearly made it her goal to sound like Madonna. It made the Top 20 in 1988 and Brenda K. Starr vanished into pop obscurity. Incredibly, her backup singer paid tribute to her former lead by re-recording it and having success in the 90’s with it. That backup singer, whose demo tape was passed forward by Starr to CBS Records and Tommy Mottola? Mariah Carey.

Early in the baseball season, it can be easy to look at some statistics and feel unsure whether someone’s previous year’s success was real or not. Corey Kluber came from the might-be level all the way to becoming the Klu-Bot, Cy Kluber last season. This year, Kluber has not looked so good, statistically, carrying an ERA of over 5.00.

But I Still Beliiiiiiieve in Kluber and I will sing it from the mountaintops. More importantly, I am happy to continue to roll him out in my cash and tournament games. In fact, I relish the fact that there is going to be a substantial part of the public that is going to back away from Kluber because of that fat ERA.

So why I am so sure that I am willing to perm my hair and sing as a soprano? For one, his K-rates remain rock solid, with a Swinging Strike rate of 13% and a K/9 rate of 9.3. These are elite numbers. That’s probably why his SIERA is much lower than his ERA, registering at a 3.20, which is 17th in the majors for pitchers with more than 20IP for this season.

In short, he’s still a top pitcher and due for some comeback. And all my singing will have been worth it. Well, to me at least.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

DraftKings: Don’t Think, Meat, Just Pitch

May 6, 2015 | DraftKings | 1 Comment

by: jasonwalker

If there’s one thing I kill myself doing in DFS it’s talking myself into starting a pitcher against a decent offense and whiff on sticking with targeting the stinkers.

Tuesday, it was talking myself into Andrew Cashner because Vegas had the game at a very low number, with Cashner as a slight favorite. I ignored the data that told me that the Giants weren’t terrible against RHP, especially at home and they certainly didn’t strike out much to boot.

I decided the Brewers data was too early to call, so I didn’t spend up to get Zach Greinke, even though the Brewers had been terrible against RHP so far and struck out plenty to justify any risk of one of the Brew Crew connecting.

Also, I ignored the numbers that were telling me Shelby Miller was a good play against the Phillies, again due to high Ks, low numbers on the road and overall and that Vegas had Miller as a heavy favorite against forgotten Chad Billingsley.

Sometimes you have to look at the numbers, trust your process and do what you have to do. It also helps to lock yourself in a closet after setting your lineups so you don’t do a last minute panic switch that sends you to the poorhouse.

So what about tonight? Despite temptations to roster a personal fave, Chris Sale, on the bump against the Tigers, I am sticking to the data and going with Pittsburgh’s Gerrit Cole at home against the Reds. The Reds are 23rd vs. RHP this season and 27th on the road. Mix in Cole’s #3 status on the SIERA charts so far and Cole is my pick at $9,500 for my SP1 Wednesday night on DraftKings.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

DraftKings: When Players Expose Themselves

April 29, 2015 | DraftKings | 5 Comments

by: jasonwalker

It happens all the time. You love Player A, but he’s on a slate you’re not playing, but you love him in a tasty matchup the next day. Not many people know about him except for sharp daily players and you’re all set to roster him and count some cash. Then, disaster strikes. In that early slate, in a not-so-good matchup, the most non-profitable thing happens: He plays well. Not just well, though, but look-at-me well.

The next day you roster him anyway, hoping everyone won’t be on him but there it goes, his ownership well into double digits. Player exposed, and value play ruined. Cash harder to come by.

I’ll walk through an example about this phenomenon later in the article, when I highlight David Peralta, who people know but had slid back under the radar and hadn’t been rostered a heck of a lot by my count lately in GPPs. That situation is no Dan Uggla situation, who came from the dead Tuesday in a DFS REVENGE game against the Braves, but Peralta should have been a solid recommendation that now looks like recency bias and chasing. Se la.

Tell me about when this happened to you in the comments area and good luck on a very top heavy pitching day.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

DraftKings: Pay for Aces, Play your Aces

April 22, 2015 | DraftKings | 6 Comments

by: jasonwalker

People of Planet Earth, please, pay for your aces. On a slate that features quite a few, there is no need to tempt fate by not building around at least one solid top tier arm and a mid-tier to make it happen. Oh sure, there will that voice inside your head that says, “Hey, Kyle Kendrick fooled everyone Opening Day and was a huge bargain!”. That’s the voice that needs to be driven out into the middle of the DFS cornfields and left without cab fare back to where you are rostering players.

Clayton Kershaw, Johnny Cueto, Madison Bumgarner and David Price are all on the docket, much like the aforementioned Opening Day (don’t get excited, Kendrick). Kershaw at over 12K may be too pricey to engage, but Bumgarner (9.8K) and Cueto (9.5K) might be excellent targets for your ace itch. Ace itch may not sound good, but to get a good core for your evening roster, especially with so many teams going, you may just need to stop thinking and scratch.

One more thing going into the list below: Whenever teams are in Toronto and Denver, I love the stars where you can fit them in. You’ll be harder pressed to do so if you’ve rostered aces at SP like tonight, but I didn’t want the list to go by and have you wonder, “Gee, doesn’t he like Adam Jones, Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Bautista, Chris Davis, et al.?” The answer is, yes, yes I do. Now onto the other guys.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

DraftKings: Making the Best of Bad Slates

April 15, 2015 | DraftKings | 8 Comments

by: jasonwalker

Folks love a large slate. What folks don’t love is a large slate when the starting pitchers in said slate is a Who’s Who of Who?! Between the poor performers and solid guys in bad matchups, it can be tough to pick even one SP to try and trust in your lineup, much less two.

But there’s still a way to find your way to finding your starters, even if there aren’t obvious plays. First, check your weather for potential advantages to help break ties. Lower temperature games will often give SP an advantage and air pressure (higher) and humidity (lower) can provide edge for those arms in more favorable situations. Then check your Vegas odds to look for the lowest number and which team has the best odds of winning.

For Wednesday’s slate, it looks like Jon Niese has the edge with favorable weather conditions, great park factors at home and Vegas has that game pegged low at seven runs, with the Mets a decent favorite.

Have fun using that process to find who you want to start in a considerably ugly slate.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Author: jasonwalker

Read some of jasonwalker's 25 posts

DraftKings: Shake off Yesterday and Repeat it Today

DraftKings: Go Ahead, Try It…Everybody’s Doing It

DraftKings: Sluggers And Sluggers

DraftKings: Don’t Ignore the Trends

DraftKings: All Blah Blah The Dodgers And Rockies!

DraftKings: Know When To Walk Away, Know When To Run

DraftKings: Ignore Recency Bias and Live Free

DraftKings: I Still Belieeeeve

DraftKings: Don’t Think, Meat, Just Pitch

DraftKings: When Players Expose Themselves

DraftKings: Pay for Aces, Play your Aces

DraftKings: Making the Best of Bad Slates