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Author: Hobbs

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Hobbs

16 Prospects to Value More Highly in FYPD Than Their MLB Draft Position Indicates

June 18, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Prospects | 4 Comments

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Ouch. *cues voice of a young British child named Harry* That really hurt! I can’t say I  actually know the level of pain Harry felt when his younger brother Charlie bit his finger that fateful day, but I do know this: last Wednesday really hurt. I mean, yes, it was glorious. It was day one of the 2020 MLB Draft, and it was real. It was baseball, or at least something relevant to the product we so desperately wish to see dancing before our eyes on the diamond during these summer months. It was consumable. It was on live television. It was something I needed and I know a lot of you needed as well.

But as it related to my 2020 MLB Mock Draft, it was a disaster — it truly hurt. It was like being brutally bitten by a bald-headed baby (alliteration on fleak!). I won’t even hide from it. There’s the link. Check it out. There isn’t a whole lot that I got right. Then again, most everyone who took a shot at it got it utterly wrong this year. I love Heston Kjerstad and he’s an incredible player. I believe he’s an excellent prospect to target in upcoming fantasy first-year player drafts (FYPD). But find me a mock that had him going No. 2 overall. Find me a mock that had Nick Yorke going No. 17 to the Red Sox. There were a lot of surprises, even within the top 10. And now, with it all over, we’re left to pick up the pieces.

Truthfully, it doesn’t matter if you watched or not. Even if you didn’t, you can look up who was drafted where, get lost in the hype, and decide who you want to target in your dynasty league. I play in a few home leagues where I already know I’ll have the most efficient FYPD of anyone in my league. While many people select prospects based on where they were drafted, or what Harold Reynolds said about them on TV, I’ll be picking out the future fantasy gems hidden along the way. Just because someone went 30 picks later than another player doesn’t mean they should necessarily be drafted later in FYPD. Hopefully, if you’re in a high stakes league, you already understand that concept. But the MLB Draft, regardless of your own personal philosophy of how teams should pick players, does not provide an outline for the top 150 players to target, ranked from best-to-worst.

If I were you, I would draft Tanner Burns (No. 36) over Jared Shuster (No. 25), just like I would select Daniel Cabrera (No. 62) or Isaiah Greene (No. 69) instead of Hudson Haskin (No. 39). That doesn’t mean I don’t like Shuster or Haskin, it just indicates I won’t be letting MLB Draft position dictate how I draft, and neither should you. That being said, here are 16 players I think should be targeted much higher than their draft position indicates. No one within the first 25 picks was under consideration (I made an exception for Sabato, that incredible hulk of a man), as they likely come with gaudy FYPD stock as is.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Hobbs

2020 MLB Mock Draft: Projecting the First Round

June 9, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Prospects | 18 Comments

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If you’re a hardcore baseball fan, you’ve probably already mulled through your fair share of 2020 MLB mock drafts. It seems like every website worth a damn posts one, yet no one really knows what to expect, and it only takes one curveball to throw the entire equation out of whack. Even so, I figured I’d give it a try for Razzball’s sake, if for no other reason than to give Grey some spicy motivation to tune in on Wednesday night. See, now it’s a mock draft.

There’s a lot of uncertainty with this draft. Nobody knows for sure just how college heavy teams are ultimately going to go with the unique situation created by COVID-19, and which teams will elect to play the strategic bonus tomfoolery game. It’s difficult to project just how these factors will play into each and every team’s respective strategy. We might see more teams than ever taking on the “best-available” approach.

But as it relates to fantasy baseball, Wednesday’s draft is relevant because it sets the stage for the ensuing trajectory of every drafted player’s stock as a prospect. Not only does draft position tend to influence how people value prospects in first-year player drafts, but who drafted said player can also go a long way in determining what their Minor League journey will look like and how confident we are as fantasy owners that they will develop successfully. That being said, here is my carefully-concocted mock draft of the first 29 picks this upcoming Wednesday. Mush! Onward into the unknown!

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Hobbs

2020 MLB Draft Sleepers for Fantasy Baseball: Early, Middle & Late

June 4, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Prospects | 4 Comments

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Determining what truly constitutes as a sleeper is an age-old debate. Take Duke’s Bryce Jarvis from the 2020 MLB Draft class. About two months ago, I ranked him 15th in my top 25 college fantasy baseball prospects while other ‘perts’ were tabbing him with third round status at best. Was he a sleeper then? Maybe. Is he now? No, because he’s risen all the way to No. 25 on MLB.com’s top 200 rankings. How about Pete Crow-Armstrong in this year’s class? Is he a sleeper if he indeed falls to the latter half of the first round? Maybe he goes in the twenties and we spend the next 20 years comping the prep schooler’s draft fall to that of Trout’s in 2009 (unlikely, but you get the point). And what about your 57-year-old Uncle Ed who just passed out on his La-Z-Boy after pounding five Millers and ghosting a Juul hit? Now that is a true sleeper my friends.

For this segment, what qualifies as a sleeper is this: a player sitting outside the top 50 2020 MLB Draft prospects according to both MLB.com and Baseball America who is considered a long shot to be drafted in the first round by the industry consensus (with bonus pool tomfoolery, we can never ensure who won’t be a first rounder with 100% accuracy). Out of this group of players, I have selected several which I believe will outperform their draft position as a future professional. I then separated these players based on where I anticipate they will be selected in this year’s five round draft: early, middle and late.

But wait! It gets better. I’ve even expanded into the high school prospect pool by including one, yes you heard that right — one — prep prospect in this post. Although the college circuit is my specialty, I feel confident enough in my knowledge of the high school crop to dig into a name here and there. If you’re playing in a dynasty league and looking for some high-upside deep finds in this year’s draft to target moving forward, look no further. And wake up Uncle Ed while you’re at it. That guy needs all the help he can get.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Hobbs

Complete College Top 100 for Fantasy Baseball: Where do the Underclassmen Fit In?

May 28, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Prospects | 11 Comments

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It all began on March 19. Of this year, that is. Not March 19, 1918, when Congress passed the first-ever law establishing daylight savings time. Fast-forward 102 years and we’re still acting like everyone’s a farmer. Nor are we talking about March 19, 1953, when the Academy Awards were televised for the first time. The Greatest Show on Earth was named best picture that year. On the same date in 1966, Texas Western won the NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship — the inspiration for the film Glory Road.

But on March 19, 2020 — I made my Razzball debut and began analyzing the best college prospects to pursue in fantasy baseball, beginning with the Top 10 College Prospects to Target in Dynasty Leagues. From there, that list expanded to a top 25 and then a top 100, at which point we began looking into which underclassmen might also be relevant to dynasty leaguers.

In this Complete College Top 100, I not only included prospects from the 2021 and 2022 draft classes, but also reworked my previous top 100 list to illustrate some changes in opinion I have mulled through leading up to the 2020 MLB Draft. The most notable moves occurred within the top 11, as I reshuffled much of what I refer to as “The Magnificent Seven” and also gave Heston Kjerstad a bit of a boost after getting some new intel on how MLB teams are evaluating the Razorback slugger.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Hobbs

College Baseball Underclassmen Prospects: Part Two

May 21, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Prospects |

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Exactly three weeks from now, the 2020 MLB Draft will be on its second and final day of selections and nearly all of the players in my Top 25 College Prospects to Target in Dynasty Leagues should be off the board. Commissioner Rob Manfred will be found reading off the names of draftees in his personal man cave located in the basement, as he slowly digests a large glass jar of cracker jacks for all to see. During the two-day event, he may even sit down on his leather recliner and announce a few picks while glugging down some Basil Hayden’s bourbon in between sets in a mild attempt to understand why he ever took his job in the first place.

As the draft winds to a close, fantasy owners will finally know which farm systems the players they’ve been targeting, or have already bought stock in, will be developing in. If said player is picked by the Miami Marlins, you get excited because you know they’ll be a star in the NL Central within the next four years. If they’re drafted by a New York team, you’ll be filled with mixed emotions, knowing it will be a miracle if that prospect’s arms and legs don’t mysteriously all fall off by year’s end. Let’s face it, even if that actually happened, the Yankees’ training staff still wouldn’t be able to properly diagnose it.

But in all seriousness, draft day will be a glorious day, as we so desperately need something, anything, Baseball. As you consume the 2020 MLB Draft next month, intently take in new information brought about by national coverage, but don’t get caught up in the hype. Know which players you like and are targeting regardless of class, and don’t put stock in a player out of raw emotion or recency bias. Just look at all the first round picks from the last five-to-ten years that still aren’t Major League contributors: you don’t want the “have-now” prospects, you want the right prospects – and if that means buying on a player in the 2021 or 2022 classes as opposed to this one – so be it.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Hobbs

College Baseball Underclassmen Prospects: Part One

May 14, 2020 | Fantasy Baseball Prospects | 6 Comments

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Over the past two months, I have immersed myself in the college baseball ranks and provided in-depth analysis in regard to which players to target in dynasty formats. As it relates to the priorities of my life, I refer to this project as the “Immersion Diversion,” in which I neglect all other areas of my life for researching college prospects. This began with my top 10 college prospects, which then grew into a top 25 before culminating into my top 100 overall. Then, I was slammed with arguably the largest hazing scandal Razzball has ever seen, as some questioned in the comments why I failed to address the underclassmen in these lists. Was it solely due to an underlying hatred for the newcomers? 

At the time, my response was two-fold: 1) the upperclassmen have added value due to the fact they will be attainable via first-year player drafts next off-season and 2) only those eligible for the 2020 MLB Draft come with complete and updated scouting grades. Not only do these scouting tools help us predict future MLB production, but they shed light on where players will be drafted, and where specifically a player is drafted goes a long way in determining said player’s perceived value in deeper formats. What I’m saying is that no first-year player fantasy drafts have 10th round talents being selected. At least they shouldn’t. Draft position influences hype, which influences who you and your league-mates target post-draft and beyond.

Still, this posed an intriguing dilemma. What about open world leagues, where everyone in the college circuit is readily available at present? In those cases, would I recommend Asa Lacy (2020 class) or Kumar Rocker (’21)? Would I advise anyone to pass on LSU’s Daniel Cabrera (’20) for Colton Cowser (’21) of Sam Houston State? Over the next several weeks, I will begin revealing college underclassmen not yet eligible for the MLB Draft who I recommend deep-leaguers begin targeting NOW, beginning with five names this week to put on your radar.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Hobbs

Return of the Jedi: Gauging Brent Honeywell’s MLB Future

May 7, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Prospects | 27 Comments

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What a great week. Any time I have a legitimate excuse to binge watch Star Wars one day and bloat myself with an excess of Mexican food and homemade margarita slushies the next, it’s a good week. Making matters even better, I was able to catch some quality KBO action on TV, something that revealed that my thirst for baseball can be temporarily quenched by just about any bat-to-ball action – other than that time I was on a cave tour in Pennsylvania and a big brown bat flew into my crotch.

Although I know not every Razzball reader and writer is a die-hard Star Wars fan such as myself, this got me thinking: how can I incorporate these two loves of baseball and late 1970s-early 1980s science fiction? Since there are only three truly great Star Wars films, I had the idea to split my prospect writing into three categories: 1) A New Hope (breakdown of the six top-100 prospects in the Marlins farm system), 2) The Empire Strikes Back (analysis of Yankees right-handers Clark Schmidt and Deivi Garcia) and 3) Return of the Jedi (what to expect from Brent Honeywell’s long-awaited comeback).

As I began this project, it didn’t take long before I completely lost track of time down in a Honeywellian rabbit hole. What I mean by this, is that I was trudging along, minding my own business with my eyes glued to 2017 Honeywell tape on my iPhone, when I literally fell into a hole in the ground and had no choice but to research Honeywell’s outlook for the next three-to-four hours while I called for help. And that is how this piece went from one of my typical, wide-ranging prospect breakdowns to one focused on a singular arm: Brent Honeywell, the young Jedi Knight, the man who can do things on the hill that no one else can, but has long been struggling with his own inner battle of health and spiritual clarity. In this piece, I will not only break down Honeywell as a prospect, but speculate on his return to the mound, reasons behind his recent arm injuries and what level of health (or lack thereof) we might be able to predict moving forward.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Hobbs

Blind Prospect Resumes: Battle of Double-A Sluggers

April 30, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Prospects | 6 Comments

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Remember that horrifying scene in The Conjuring where the kids are all playing that stupid “hide and clap” game together in the house? This poor little girl is wandering around her family’s demon-possessed hell-hole of a home, blindfolded and completely unable to see, playing a sick, vintage version of hide-and-seek that was apparently popular in New England in the early 1970s. Later in the film, their mom joins in on this foolishness and problems only escalate from there. I was forever scarred.

Why would anyone ruin something as classic and pure as hide-and-seek, or baseball for that matter, by throwing a blindfold into the equation? I can only imagine what that would have resulted in during my childhood. One second you’re walking around blindfolded looking for your friends, the next second one of them is punching you in the face. Great prank, guys. Thanks.

For baseball, however, the blindfold tactic can actually prove to be useful, though I recommend removing it prior to draft day to avoid assembling a roster similar to that of some of my league-mates. If we take an in-depth look at players without knowing their names, compare the numbers and trends side-by-side, formulate opinions and then restore their identities, we might actually be better off. It goes without saying that it’s always a good idea to revisit video after one of these exercises. No matter what the numbers say, I will never put stock in a guy whose swing makes me barf. Think exhilarating but gut-wrenching like chaw mixed with fair rides.

In this piece, I will be breaking down three different prospects who are almost undoubtedly owned in any dynasty league: Prospect A, Prospect B and Prospect C. Some may even be owned in mid-to-deep keeper formats. As we go through this exercise, I urge you to draw tempered conclusions about each prospect without looking elsewhere to determine who they might be. Don’t ruin the fun – I’m going to reveal the names of each at the very end anyway.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Hobbs

Top 100 College Prospects to Target in Dynasty Leagues

April 23, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Prospects | 4 Comments

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Alright, readers! Prepare yourself for the most highly-anticipated expansion project since the Florida Marlins were awarded a bid to join Major League Baseball in the June of 1991! Oh, what a glorious two years it was, as new GM Dave Dombrowski quickly got to work assembling what he hoped would soon become a career trademark project. By Opening Day 1993, the Marlins were all systems go with the likes of Gary Sheffield, Walt Weiss, Benito Santiago, Bret Barberie, Orestes Destrade, Chuck Carr and bright young rookie, Jeff Conine. Simply tantalizing, wouldn’t you say?

Yes, yes. I know what you’re thinking. One, the 1993 expansion season also featured the Colorado Rockies. Two, no one cares about the Marlins. Three, I failed to mention the fact that the Florida franchise was purchased for $95 million by the former CEO of Blockbuster Video. And finally four, no one cares about the Marlins. Take it from a me, a guy who can unfortunately say that he has been to both Sun Life Stadium and new Marlins Park. Remember how many names the old stadium had? I can think of like six just off the top of my head.

That being said, I would like to announce an ever greater undertaking, as I will be expanding from my Top 25 College Prospects to Target in Dynasty Leagues to an even 100 in this piece. Although the painstaking effort I have put into this list will likely never live up to what Dombrowski and the Marlins accomplished throughout the nineties, I can do my best to fill that void.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Hobbs

Prospect Security Check: Who to Pack for the Long Haul

April 16, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Prospects | 26 Comments

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Every night before an ensuing flight, I go through this recurring ritual of dumping out the contents of my entire backpack onto the floor. I go through everything piece-by-piece to make sure I never end up looking like Ice Cube in the first Are We There Yet? movie. Nope, no corkscrew hiding on this guy, thank you very much. If you’re familiar with the kind of ritual I’m talking about, then you’ll understand the concept of this post.

I live a modest life. I’m not hopping on any charters or flying first class anywhere. Usually, I fly economy with one carry-on and one personal item. Even if it’s free, I usually avoid checking bags as a means of circumventing the lines and getting the hell out of the airport as quickly as possible. Even if I’m leaving for two-plus weeks, I’m keeping it light and walking straight to security.

This means I have to ensure that I’m not leaving any accidental surprises in any of my bags and that I’m preemptively planning where to grab a bottle of contact solution upon landing. Nothing adds to an already sucky, dirt-cheap red-eye flight like stalking the aisles of a random Wal-Mart in the wee hours of the morning for some Biotrue.

In this piece, I’m going through that same ritual, but with MLB prospects. Since I began writing for Razzball, I have been leaving some items in my bag (A.K.A. the comments section) that have yet to be dumped out. Now, as I embark on my next trip (A.K.A. this post), I am dumping out my satchel to ensure I’m covering every Razzball reader’s need as it relates to fantasy baseball prospects.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Hobbs

2023 All-COVID Team: Pitching, Confucism and Prospect Talk

April 9, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Prospects | 22 Comments

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A wise man once said, “He who says he can and he who says he can’t are usually both right.” That was Confucius, who also once remarked to a bright young pupil on a particularly overcast day in 531 BC that “He who places his livelihood in the hands of starting pitching health is indeed the king of fools among us all.” I can assure you he said both of those things, and I can assure you that I will do my best to heed his insightful words as I reveal the pitchers on my 2023 All-COVID Team.

Like I said, Confucius was a wise man. He would have never dared use ESPN’s rankings to set up his fantasy baseball draft board. No, he would likely make his way to a site like Razzball, where he would study my 2023 All-COVID Team with great satisfaction before stumbling across this post. At this point, we would likely faint out of mere displeasure.

Projecting the top pitchers in fantasy three years from now is an asinine task in nature. Experts such as Grey who are able to nail preseason fantasy pitching rankings year-by-year have achieved quite a feat as is. To venture further into the unknown is, quite frankly, setting oneself up for failure. But, to heed my good friend Confucius’ words, I will be “he who says he can,” and I shall be right.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Hobbs

2023 All-COVID Team: Freddie Freeman Pivots to World Class Librarian and More

April 2, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Prospects | 25 Comments

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Last night I awoke in a rush. I was sweating, panting almost – awakened by a nightmare more ghastly than you can imagine. One more horrific than the chronic nightmares I had as a child in which the tiny troll figurines stalked my bedroom through all hours of the night. One quick Google search and I’m reliving those dreams – and it’s all too real. Yet, even such horrors do not compare to the demons which disturbed my slumber last night.

Over the past several weeks, I have been struggling to cope with the delay of the Major League Baseball season – something I’m sure you can all relate to. While trying to keep a healthy perspective concerning the real issues and concerns of the present, I have been unable to keep my mind from wandering to the darkest corners of the baseball world. Before the Coronavirus even put the MLB season on hold, I dreamed of such harsh realities taking form. *queues Danny Glover voiceover* You can call it a vision. You can call it a coincidence. I don’t care what you call it, but last night, it got worse.

I found myself walking through an unfamiliar land in which Airpods were even more popular than they are now. Wandering through the streets, I was passed by an Amazon drone engaged in an air delivery. While gazing at its sheer beauty, I stumbled through the gates of Camden Yards and a game program subsequently blew though the wind and onto my startled face. As I pulled the flier away and began to read its text – I instantly gasped in disbelief. 2023 All-Star Game: The Long-Awaited Return of the Midsummer Classic it read, with an action shot of superstar catcher Adley Rutschman spread across the front page.

As I stood in disbelief, I overheard a conversation between two young fans, arguing who indeed was the top backstop in the game, Rutschman or San Francisco’s Joey Bart. But what about J.T. Realmuto, I thought? Or the mid-career development of Willson Contreras? I continued to eavesdrop with the hope that more details would soon become clear.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
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