The annual MLB HR Derby will be held Monday evening and what better way to prepare than take a deep dive into the competition using advanced analytics?
My long-time buddy and fellow @Razzball analyst, Mitch Staniger, came up with a HR Derby Challenge a couple years ago to make the event a little more interesting for us. Here’s the synopsis, it’s pretty easy really. We draft 4 of the participants each then sit back and watch the balls fly. Winner takes the pot. The pot I’m referring to isn’t cash…well, not directly. In our competition, the loser purchases a piece of baseball memorabilia (usually a nice rookie baseball card) for the winner to cherish forever.
I’ll break down our Derby Draft later. But for now, let’s start our look at the HR Derby with some general props.
Longest HR
Predicting the longest home run with complete accuracy is going to be difficult. I mean, if it were easy, we’d all be rich. RIGHT! Hitting the ball into orbit requires several factors working together as one, including player’s strength, bat speed, pitch velocity and type, launch angle, weather conditions, and park factors to name a few.
- Player Strength and Bat Speed – Pretty easy formula here: greater strength + faster bat speed = farther HR. We’ll use average and max exit velocity to infer these. Here’s a thought…Grey can give me a bigger stipend and a press pass to visit MLB weight rooms for some primary research here (maybe I’ll work on this one for next year).
- Pitch Velocity and Type – Faster pitches provide more energy for the batter to transfer into the ball. It doesn’t take a physicist to understand this one. Pitch speed may be a bit different across all the participants but not enough to make a distinguishable difference for our needs. If any of these pitchers are serving up anything but junk, they need to be removed immediately. For our purposes, we’ll assume all the pitches will be similar in nature.
- Launch Angle – Optimal launch angles between 25-35 degrees is generally considered most effective for hitting long HRs. Remember this figure I’ve used a few times already this season?
This one will be easy to analyze since we have direct data to review. We’ll put that data to good use.
- Weather Conditions and Park Factors – No need to worry about weather conditions since all our players are sharing the same experience. According to Statcast park factors data, T-Mobile Park is playing below average for HRs in 2023, scoring a 90 (100 is average). Field dimensions around the outfield include 331 (LF), 390 (LF/C), 405 (CF), 387 (RF/C) and 327 (RF). So, there really isn’t a marked advantage for either LH or RH batters here.
Enough of the lessons, let’s get to the numbers.
- Exit Velocity – With an average and max EV of 94.5 mph and 116.7 mph, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the standout leader amongst our Derby participants. Randy Arozarena shows he consistently hits the ball hard, ranking 2nd with an average EV of 93 mph (everyone else below 93 mph). Hometown hero, Julio Rodriguez ranks 2nd for max EV at 115.5 mph, followed closely behind by Adolis Garcia.
- Launch Angle – This data tells a whole different story. Our two hardest hitting batters (Vladdy and JRod) rank last in launch angle at 8.8 and 8.7 degrees, respectively. Mookie Betts (19.6 degrees) and Pete Alonso (16.3 degrees) lead the way here.
As a whole, the poor LA for Vladdy weighs him down just enough to suggest Adolis Garcia and Pete Alonso are your better bets for hitting the longest HR.
Most HRs In A Round
Predicting which player will hit the most HRs in a round is even more challenging since this can be influenced by more unpredictable variables. We’ve already looked at some of the factors in hitting HRs. Here are a few more that may be in play as we try to predict who’ll hit the most in a round:
- Performance – Who has consistently demonstrated power and a high number of HRs?
- Power Hitting Ability – Who has a history of hitting a large number of HRs?
- Swing Mechanics – Who has the best ability to generate power consistently, through compact and efficient swings, as well as the ability to consistently make solid contact with the ball? We have a nice metric to help us with this one.
- Experience – Should we consider experience in past HR Derby events? Pete and Vladdy say, “YES” to this one.
- Mental Focus and Stamina – This goes hand-in-hand with the last one. Some guys just excel in the spotlight of this big stage. Others, not so much.
Obviously, Pete Alonso has a huge advantage in many of these qualitative factors. We’ve all seen him bobbing to the music when he’s up there. He just becomes a different guy on this stage. It’s hard to assign a number to it, but the advantage is definitely there. What about the things we can quantify:
- Barrels % – This provides a convenient measure of a batter’s ability to hit the ball with a combination of high EV and optimal LA. A higher Barrel % indicates a batter is consistently making high-quality contact and often exhibits above average power. Once again, I refer you to the figure provided above. I’ve yet to find a better illustration of Barrels and want to put it in front of you as much as possible.
There’s a wide discrepancy between the top and bottom of our list in this category. Adolis Garcia and Luis Robert lead the way with 16.00% and 15.60%, respectively. Adley Rutschman and Julio Rodriguez are the bottom two at 6.50% and 10.40%, respectively. Everyone else sits between 12.20% and 15.20%.
- HardHit % – This refers to the percentage of batted balls classified as “hard-hit” based on their EV. It’s used to evaluate a batter’s ability to make solid contact and hit the ball with significant EV. A minimum EV of 95 mph is typically used as the threshold for generating a HardHit.
Following our previous discussion of EV, it should come as no surprise to see Vladdy leading our group of 8 with a 57.10 %. 2019’s record-setting performance of 29 HRs in the 1st and 2nd round of the Derby (note: 40 total in Rd 2, including tiebreaker bombs), further justifies the importance of HardHit % as a metric for this prop. Following Vladdy, Adolis Garcia (50.80 %) and Julio Rodriguez (50.60 %) are the next closest participants.
On the flip side, Adley Rutschman (36.50 %) and Pete Alonso (40.10 %) are the bottom two in this category. The rookie has a lot stacked against him in the Derby and Pete will need to channel some of those other factors we discussed (Experience and Mental Focus) if he’s going to make a run this year.
It’ll be hard to go away from Vladdy and of course, many bets will be laid on Pete to repeat, but don’t overlook Adolis Garcia – especially if he makes it out of Rd 1.
First Round Breakdown
- Luis Robert vs (8) Adley Rutchman
The data suggests the rookie will have a tough go of it in his first Home Run Derby. Of course, anything can happen, but it appears to be a long shot for Baltimore’s beloved son.
- Adolis Garcia vs (5) Randy Arozarena
This should be a close one. The data suggests Adolis Garcia is the favorite but it’s hard to bet against Randy Arozarena. Officially, this should be a “pick-em” but I always lean toward the data and therefore, I’m going with Adolis Garcia to move on.
- Pete Alonso vs (7) Julio Rodriguez
The prime matchup in the first round. The Hometown Kid vs the Perennial Derby Favorite. Will Julio show up like he did last year, or will Pete continue his dominance in the Derby? In a perfect world, Seattle fans would be treated to at least two rounds of their star youngster, but I can’t see Pete making an early exit. Go with the Polar Bear!
- Mookie Betts vs (6) Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
This one looks like an upset in the making, at least based on the power metrics. Vlad is made for an event like this and has already shown his ability to succeed on this stage. Also in his favor is the resurgence in his HR swing as of late. Sorry Mook, enjoy your time at bat but have your boys save you a nice seat for viewing the latter rounds.
Finals
I’ve crunched the numbers, ranked the players across the power categories, and threw in just a pinch of gut feel, to reach my finals prediction (drum roll please):
- Adolis Garcia to ride his advantage in Barrel %, HardHit % and EV to defeat Luis Robert in the 2ndround and make the finals.
- Pete Alonso makes a run but in the end can’t overcome the deficits in HardHit % and EV. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. moves on to the finals.
When ranking the 8 players across all power categories, using the patent-pending (not really) Analytics Anonymous HR predictor formula, these two players stand out as the crème of the crop. One has a rank score of 26 and the other 30 (all others are greater than 36). It should be a great finals battle, but with the slight advantage across all categories, your 2023 MLB Home Run Derby Champion is:
ADOLIS GARCIA
Make your bets now.
One last bit of business to cover before putting a wrap on this one. Remember my Home Run Derby Challenge with Mitch Staniger? Here are the results of our draft:
The Lineup Builder: Luis Robert, Adolis Garcia, Mookie Bets, and Randy Arozarena
Mitch Staniger: Pete Alonso, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Julio Rodriguez, and Adley Rutschman
Be sure to root on your favorite Razzball analyst as I look to add to my baseball collection at Mitch’s expense. Above all else, enjoy the All-Star Break and get ready for baseball’s second half and the fantasy stretch run. I’ll be here on the other side providing you with what I hope is valuable information en route to your fantasy baseball championships.
Once again, thanks for traveling with me on this ride through the wonderful world of baseball analytics. As I always say, keep sifting through the number. That’s where you find the gems!
Follow me on Twitter: @Derek_Favret.
Until next time, my friends!
