Happy Easter,
As we find ourselves a few weeks into our season, we’re still dealing with crazy-hot/cold starts and small sample sizes. BABIP has not normalized and we’re trying to see what players are for real or not. Below are a few players who have gotten off to hot starts, with some starts more legitimate than others as we try and assess:
Brendan Donovan: Cardinals – Donovan’s off to a solid start for the Cardinals. In 26 at-bats entering play Sunday, he’s got a 5/2/5/.269/.310 slash line while qualifying at virtually every position except for catcher. Brendan Donovan is the quintessential Cardinals player. I’m sure if you asked ChatGPT to list qualities of the perfect Cardinals position player, Donovan would fit the bill, as Donovan works the count, has elite contact skills, positional versatility, and a strong OBP. As the Cardinals manager has a logjam of quality position players to work with at the moment, Donovan’s sat against lefties and has bounced around the batting order. In an ideal scenario, the playing time figures itself out, Tommy Edman should slide down the order more regularly as Donovon gets the majority of the reps at the top of the Cards lineup. Notably, Donovan batted leadoff for the Cardinals on Opening Day. He was never a highly-regarded prospect, but then again, it seems like the Cardinals regularly create position players out of thin air. Donovan is more valuable in a deep, daily moves league compared to one that locks weekly, due to the Cardinals continuing game of musical chairs. While it’s only been a few weeks of the 2023 season, I’m intrigued by the couple homers he’s hit already (given that he only hit 5 last year). As Donovan enters into his prime, small tweaks to his batting stance this year to utilize more power seem to have paid early dividends. Donovan was drafted around 300 ADP earlier this draft season and if his newfound power sticks, he’ll out earn his ADP easily. A jump to 15-17 homers accompanied by his other elite skills would make him one of the most valuable players drafted in 2023. I’m keeping an eye on if he sticks with his new batting stance and hoping Nolan Gorman and Juan Yepez get traded.
Xander Bogaerts: Padres – Xander has to be the happiest man in San Diego, with a $280M deal and endearing himself to the Padres faithful in the early going, hitting big homers, slashing 7/3/8/.333/.425. The boss told you to sell on Friday. What’s going on? Did he learn how to suddenly hit for power from Fernando Tatis Jr.? A deep dive under the hood shows Bogaerts has been barreling the ball up at a pace he’s never done before (10.3%), launch angle up to 15.6%, and walking at a 15 % clip. Small sample size for sure as it’s only a few weeks into the season. As Xander leaves BABIP-friendly Fenway, it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll suddenly become a 30-35 HR threat, especially as Xander isn’t hitting the ball with significantly more exit velocity (his current 87.2 EV would be the lowest of his career if the number sticks). The .333 average is currently a mirage as he has a .269 xBA. The supporting cast is one of the best, especially as Fernando Tatis Jr.’s return is imminent. As the barrel percentage comes down, I expect Xander to remain the 20-25 homer bat he was but have a nice bump in counting stats from the lesser Red Sox teams he’s been with in the past. I’m agreeing with a Grey sell here but wouldn’t sell him for pennies on the dollar. In deep leagues, Xander certainly has spots where he will remain valuable, just don’t believe in that .333 batting average and the newfound power.
Wander Franco: Rays – To me, nothing says small sample size like a lineup who was, on paper, not expected to do well but outperforms expectations in the early going. While every year, there’s always unexpected and fluky hot starts, Wander Franco is not one of them and is earning his 6/3/8/.364/.417/1 start and is one of the main reasons why the Rays are off to their best start in franchise history. While he’s suffered some early-career injuries, this year provided an excellent buying opportunity in drafts this year. While this may have been a combination of the overall depth of the shortstop pool and aversion to Franco’s injury-plagued 2022, Franco is set to provide a major profit as he was the average #15 shortstop off the board in drafts earlier this year. As I write this, Franco hit another homer. Safe to say he’s seeing the ball well. He’s showing tremendous plate discipline, striking out around an elite 8% of the time while barreling the ball at a wild 20% clip. If he keeps this up, this dark-horse MVP will make the writers’ vote tough for AL MVP at the end of the year. 2023 may have been the last year to acquire Wander Franco at the relatively cost he went for this draft season. Believe in the post-hype breakout!
Have a great week and thanks for reading!
