Coming into the 2015 season, Ian Desmond had been the top ranked shortstop in fantasy baseball for two years in a row. He was also the only MLB player to produce three straight seasons of at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases from 2012 through 2014. So far this season, he’s hitting .222 with 5 homers and 2 steals through 69 games. What the heck is going on with this guy? How is it possible for the 29-year-old Desmond to morph into Danny Espinosa overnight? Was he hypnotized by the awesomeness of this mustache? It seems like as good of an explanation as any at the moment considering the greatness of that epic stache, but it won’t be much help for fantasy baseball purposes. Can we expect a return of the 20/20 stud from recent years, or is this mustache-less Espinosa clone here to stay?
First, let’s take a look at Desmond’s career numbers to see if they shed some light onto his early struggles this season:
| Season | G | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| 2009 | 21 | 89 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 1 | 5.60% | 15.70% | 0.28 | 0.292 | 0.28 | 0.318 | 0.561 |
| 2010 | 154 | 574 | 10 | 59 | 65 | 17 | 4.90% | 19.00% | 0.124 | 0.317 | 0.269 | 0.308 | 0.392 |
| 2011 | 154 | 639 | 8 | 65 | 49 | 25 | 5.50% | 21.80% | 0.104 | 0.317 | 0.253 | 0.298 | 0.358 |
| 2012 | 130 | 547 | 25 | 72 | 73 | 21 | 5.50% | 20.70% | 0.218 | 0.332 | 0.292 | 0.335 | 0.511 |
| 2013 | 158 | 655 | 20 | 77 | 80 | 21 | 6.60% | 22.10% | 0.173 | 0.336 | 0.28 | 0.331 | 0.453 |
| 2014 | 154 | 648 | 24 | 73 | 91 | 24 | 7.10% | 28.20% | 0.175 | 0.326 | 0.255 | 0.313 | 0.43 |
| 2015 | 69 | 289 | 5 | 30 | 18 | 2 | 4.50% | 28.00% | 0.119 | 0.299 | 0.222 | 0.266 | 0.341 |
A few things seem to be trending in the wrong direction for Desmond. His 4.5% BB% would represent a career low, while he’s carried that elevated 28% K% from last season over to this one. Desmond’s ISO and BABIP are down significantly as well. And perhaps most harmful to his fantasy value is the fact that he’s not running nearly as much as he used to. He’s just 2-for-4 on steal attempts this season after stealing at least 21 bases out of a minimum of 27 attempts in each of the previous four seasons.
Now let’s take a look at his batted ball profile to determine if any significant changes have occurred there:
| Season | GB/FB | LD% | GB% | FB% | IFFB% | HR/FB | Soft% | Med% | Hard% |
| 2009 | 1.61 | 11.80% | 54.40% | 33.80% | 8.70% | 17.40% | 15.70% | 51.40% | 32.90% |
| 2010 | 1.67 | 15.80% | 52.70% | 31.60% | 9.20% | 7.70% | 13.90% | 59.50% | 26.60% |
| 2011 | 1.7 | 17.50% | 51.90% | 30.50% | 9.00% | 6.00% | 28.40% | 49.70% | 21.90% |
| 2012 | 1.38 | 17.90% | 47.60% | 34.50% | 7.30% | 18.20% | 15.00% | 52.40% | 32.70% |
| 2013 | 1.27 | 22.50% | 43.40% | 34.10% | 9.00% | 12.90% | 16.50% | 51.30% | 32.30% |
| 2014 | 1.56 | 17.80% | 50.10% | 32.10% | 12.90% | 18.20% | 16.00% | 51.60% | 32.50% |
| 2015 | 1.74 | 15.40% | 53.70% | 30.90% | 13.80% | 8.60% | 18.20% | 54.20% | 27.60% |
The bad news continues. Desmond has been trading line drives and fly balls for more ground balls and pop-ups. His home run to fly ball ratio is less than half of last season’s total, and his hard hit percentage is down almost 5 full points. Not good.
Now let’s see if Desmond’s approach at the plate has changed at all this season:
| Season | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | Swing% | O-Contact% | Z-Contact% | Contact% | SwStr% |
| 2009 | 25.50% | 66.90% | 47.80% | 59.50% | 87.60% | 80.70% | 9.10% |
| 2010 | 33.20% | 66.50% | 48.60% | 59.10% | 89.70% | 78.50% | 10.20% |
| 2011 | 30.80% | 61.30% | 45.30% | 66.80% | 89.70% | 81.50% | 8.30% |
| 2012 | 37.50% | 72.80% | 54.60% | 61.50% | 87.40% | 78.20% | 11.80% |
| 2013 | 35.60% | 70.20% | 51.10% | 62.20% | 83.50% | 75.30% | 12.40% |
| 2014 | 34.60% | 68.60% | 50.00% | 53.70% | 83.40% | 72.10% | 13.80% |
| 2015 | 38.00% | 69.00% | 52.20% | 58.50% | 87.20% | 75.80% | 12.40% |
Finally, some good news. Desmond’s swinging strike rate has returned to his 2013 level, and he’s making more overall contact (75.8%) than he has since the 2012 season, despite swinging at a few more pitches outside of the strike zone (38% O-Swing%) than he’s accustomed to doing.
Although plate discipline doesn’t appear to be too much of an issue for Desmond, the drop in power and hard contact in general are huge concerns. Let’s take a look at an ISO heatmap from 2014 followed by one from 2015 to see where his biggest problem areas lie:
Desmond’s 2015 zone profile looks like a piece of swiss cheese – holes everywhere. He hasn’t been able to handle anything on the inner third of the plate nor in the upper third of the strike zone. His only strong areas have been in the middle of the zone and the outer third on pitches that aren’t elevated. So anything inside or elevated has given Desmond serious trouble. He’s essentially become a mistake hitter, and those mistakes have to be in very specific areas for him to cause any serious damage.
Perhaps he’s been making the necessary adjustments in approach to combat these issues. Let’s take a look at his monthly splits for 2015:
Ouch. Desmond looked to be turning the corner with a solid May, but a .137/.169/.192 triple slash line with 2/26 BB/K in June isn’t exactly getting the job done.
Desmond’s struggles on pitches that are inside and/or high are very concerning. He’s all but stopped running. His power is currently below league average and his on-base skills have long been that way. Things have gotten even worse for him as the season has moved along. Based on his track record in recent years, it would be foolish to write Desmond off completely, but it looks like more of the same can be expected from him in the near future.
Final Verdict:
