In my younger days – yes, I’m an old fart, although I don’t yell “get off my lawn.” I just turn on the sprinklers – I’d get aggro over so many things. Someone cuts me off? I’d Bruce Banner my way into D-Fens. Player strikes out with the bases loaded? See remote here? SMASH! Remote over there. As I’ve aged like cheap liquor store wine over the years, I’ve definitely become more zen. Some can be just attributed to logic. Why did it bother me so much when someone cut me off? Are we racing? Do I lose life points for getting cut off? Do you get bonuses for cutting someone off? I realized I used to get triggered by such inconsequential things that all I can do now is curl up in a fetal position and cry from embarrassment. The main thing, though, has been my general outlook on life. There are so many things out of my control that it’s dumb to utilize my pea brain resources on them. Just focus on those things that I can impact, i.e., process over results. For fantasy baseball, that becomes a constant struggle due to the length of the season, which provide plenty of pockets of sample size bias. Brandon Nimmo of the New York Mets has been dropped by some over the past week. Is it justified?
Nimmo is 32 years old, 6’2″, 206 pounds, and bats from the left side. He was highly ranked as a prospect, then the Mets selected him with the 13th overall pick in the 2011 MLB draft.
Brandon Nimmo made it to the majors in 2016. Since then, he’s been a staple in the offense, barring a few injuries.
During his rookie season, the walk rate was 7.5%, strikeout rate was 25%, and the ISO was .055 in 80 plate appearances. Since then, the walk rate has been double-digits every season. Until this season. That number is once again at 7.3%.
The differences between this season and the rookie campaign are that Nimmo has shown that he has power, as the ISO has been in the .150 to .200 range for most of his career. There was a .145 blip during the 2021 season. It’s at .181 through 206 plate appearances this season.
The plate discipline has matured as well. The strikeout rate was in the 28% range for the early part of his career, but the number plummeted into the 20% range. It’s at 18.9% this season.
So, what’s the issue, and why have some dropped Nimmo?
Brandon Nimmo is only slashing .218/.277/.399. For much of his career, he was a .270-ish hitter. Last year, though, he did finish with a .224/.327/.399 slash, so maybe once he passed the 30-year threshold, the decline began.
The BABIP is only .231, so he has encountered some bad luck.
The Statcast numbers are quite encouraging. The 92.3 mph average exit velocity and 10.6% barrel rate are career highs. The hard hit rate is above 50% for the first time in his career as well.
Nimmo is hitting more ground balls and fewer line drives, while the fly balls have ticked up a smidge. The 14.6% line drive rate is a career-low by a wide margin but I have a not-so-sneaky suspicion that will get back close to 20% because the launch angle is still only 10.8 degrees while the pull rate is only 33.1%, so it doesn’t look like he’s making a concerted effort to lift-and-pull the ball.
The chase rate has maintained at 24%, the swinging strike rate is 9%, and the contact rate in the zone is 87%. The plate discipline numbers are mostly within current form.
There was a stretch from May 17th to May 23rd, a span of six games in which Nimmo put up bagels in the stat sheet. He went 0-for-18. That’s the likeliest reason for some dropping him. Since then, he’s gone 3-for-9.
It’s baseball!!! Streaks happen, both good and bad.
Nimmo was also dealing with a stiff neck during that stretch.
Now, Brandon Nimmo is 32 years old, so it’s warranted to be wary of players hitting the age wall of decline. How big of a sample size is big enough? What is the meaning of life? It’s a tough question that depends on individual philosophy, risk tolerance, and team construct. That said, I like how Rudy often approaches similar situations: if he drops in the lineup, then we can think about cutting.
Nimmo has been batting second through fifth in the order for most of the season. I side with history here. If Carlos Mendoza continues to bat Nimmo in the heart of the order, that’s good enough for me.
any thoughts on Giancarlo? Think he can be productive 2nd half? need some RBI?HR since C. Walker can’t seem to help. have room in my team infirmary.
Not expecting much but if you have an open spot on IL, then why not?
I picked him up. Couldn’t believe he was on waivers. Solid player, with lots of playing time….. I will bet on regression to the mean! Good call Son!
Namaste
Nimmo was such a good leadoff hitter. He cashed in 6/180 thanks to a great walk year, and a poor outfield market. Injuries have been part of his fall off. He has plantar fasciitis, which flairs up now and then. He also decided to try to be more of a run producer than OBP man. Oh and Lindor likes leading off, and he’s good at it, so that was that. Nimmo has become a much better hitter vs lefty’s so he’s pretty much in the lineup everyday, although not the productive player he once was.
Indeed. Good stuff.
Traded away Nimmo early for Bibee. Not sure either has hit their stride yet. I will say that Nimmo is a bit more difficult to own in H2H leagues in my opinion. Nine RBI days are once in a lifetime. Once you get those counters for that one week, the balance of his production has been anemic.
No doubt. Context is important.