My oldest child has always been a cautious, cynical kid. When he was starting to travel to the light after nine months of darkness, he probably grabbed onto the walls, opened his eyes, and tried to peer out before coming out. When we’d go to the playground, I never had to worry about him because he’d always assess the risk/reward of any endeavor before progressing. When someone he didn’t know would approach him, he’d always give them the stink eye, look them up and down, and try to figure out if friend or foe. My daughter, on the other hand, is a free spirit, wild child. She hops and skips around with no regard for anything. If a guy with a windowless van approached her and offered a lollipop, she’d hop right in. So, stranger danger is something that the wife and I have had to sear into her brain from day one. In fantasy baseball, stranger danger is applicable as well but the appeal of the unknown upside always sings to us. Hook, line, and sinker. Ranger Suarez gave us plenty of lollipops last season but we are beginning to realize that the van has no windows. Let’s dig in to see what is reality.
Suarez is 6’1″, 217 pounds, and throws from the left side. He was signed by the Phillies as an international free agent back in 2012. He started 75 games in the minors and received three starts in 2018 when he got called up to The Show. Unfortunately, that experience didn’t go so well as the FIP was 5.49 and K/9 was 6.6. When he made it back to the bigs in 2019, he was a bullpen arm for the next two seasons.
In 2021, he got another shot in the rotation and delivered the goods. The K/9 was 9.08, HR/9 was 0.34, and the FIP was 2.72 compared to the 1.36 ERA. He pitched 106 innings.
So far in 48 innings this season, Suarez has a 4.45 FIP, 7.88 K/9, 4.13 BB/9, and 1.13 HR/9.
Let’s dig into the numbers to see if we can identify the reasons for the change.
Looking at the batted ball data, Suarez is inducing fewer ground balls. The GB/FB is at 1.65 compared to 2.29 last season. The ground ball rate has fallen 8% to 51%. The HR/FB rate is 13%, compared to 5.8% last season. Now, the career average is 11.7% so 2021 looks to be an outlier year.
Batters are pulling the ball 41.1% this season. The pull rate was 36.3% and 35% in the prior two seasons, although it was above 40% in the first two years in the majors. The career average is 39.5% so maybe these last two seasons are the tails of the distribution curve.
When Suarez first made it to the majors, he threw the fastball 36.7% of the time. That number has decreased in every subsequent season, culminating in a 17.6% rate this season, the first time below 20%. Correspondingly, the sinker usage was 22.7% in 2018. That number has gone up in every season and is 49.2% so far this season.
The plate discipline numbers show that batters are making more contact against Suarez. The contact rate outside the zone has increased 7.6% to 70.5% while the contact rate in the zone is at 90.3%. The swinging strike rate is at 8%, compared to 11.2% last season. The career average is 9.7%.
Last season, Suarez was successful in neutralizing right-handed bats. The FIP was 3.16 while the HR/9 was only 0.49. In his career, those numbers are 4.27 FIP and 1.09 HR/9. So far this season, they are 5.02 FIP and 1.41 HR/9.
2021 looks to have been the best-case scenario for Suarez. He was missing bats and the .257 BABIP and 86.3% strand rate show that he was very fortunate. The pendulum has swung to the other end this season. The BABIP is .324 while the strand rate is 72.5%. The pendulum will likely return to the middle at some point but it looks like the 2022 Suarez is closer to the real Suarez than the 2021 version.
