Change is always a difficult endeavor to endure. I smoked for over 25 years before I decided to try and quit. I don’t even remember how many times it took, but eventually after many years, and many attempts, I was finally able to do it. That shit was hard, so props to any of you that have done it. For those thinking about or are currently in the process of quitting, email me at [email protected] or DM on the Twitter machine @Stan_Son if you need someone to talk to. Maybe my experiences can help in some way. Ok, back to our regularly scheduled programming. During the process of quitting smoking, I got addicted to the CVS menthol cough drops. Now I can’t stop! And I gained a ton of weight. So I’m now in a new phase of change, which is to excercise and diet more, and stop going to CVS so much, but it’s tough. But like with smoking, I’ll get there, as long as I keep trying. It’s never too late to change, but change doesn’t happen overnight. Which brings me to Kolten Wong of the St. Louis Cardinals. Wong has been so right for the Cardinals, as he’s been carrying the club on his back recently. I’ve seen headlines of “must-watch tv” and “team MVP.” There’s also been mention of a new approach at the plate. Can it continue?
Wong has had a roller coaster career with the Cardinals. Demoted. Benched. Buried deep in the lineup. Now at the ripe age of 28, things appear to have clicked. In 490 plate appearances, Wong is batting .287 with 10 home runs and 20 stolen bases. The walk rate is 9%, strikeout rate is 14.9%, and ISO is .144. Over the last month, though, Wong has been more than right, batting .478 with an ISO of .198.
Jake Mailhot of Fangraphs wrote a great article on the adjustments that Wong has made. Essentially, it boils down to not pulling the ball so much and being content hitting the ball to the opposite field. There are some cool charts in the article, so I recommend taking a peek.
Looking at the season-long number, Wong’s pull rate is 37.8%. Last season, that number was 40.4%. Prior to that, he appeared in over 100 major league games in four seasons. The pull rate during those seasons were 38.3%, 45.1%, 40.5%, and 38.6%.
Zooming into the month-to-month numbers, the pull rate was 35.5% in April, 37% in May, 39.2% in June, 33.3% in July, and 43.7% in August, but the oppo rate was a season-high 29.6% during that month. Hmmmm, interesting. In addition, the GB/FB was at 2 in August. For every other month, that ratio was around 1.
I’m confused. Let’s check out pitchers have been attacking him.
In April, pitchers were throwing the fastball 50% of the time. The main secondary pitch was the slider at 19%. The changeup was thrown 14% with the curveball at 8.8%.
In May, the fastball usage went up 5%. The slider came down 2%, the curveball went up 3%, and the changeup usage plummetted 5%.
In June, the slider usage plummeted 5%, while the fastball remained in the same range and the curveball usage went down 2%. The changeup went up over 6%.
In July, the fastball usage cratered 14%, while the changeup went up 5%.
For August/September, the fastball rocketed back up 13% while the changeup went down 7%.
Outside of a slump in May, Wong has remained fairly consistent and adjusted to the adjustments well. My guess for the confusing August numbers is that he’s feeling good and trying to get more aggressive on pitches he thinks he can drive. Unfortunately, he’s getting on top of them and grounding out. In addition, pitchers dramatically flipped the switch when it came to pitch type.
As mentioned in the opening, change doesn’t happen overnight. It takes many tries before the change is fully integrated and becomes second nature. For baseball players, the task is made more difficult because pitchers are constantly probing for weaknesses, so a change could expose a hole, which could require more change.
Wong is a veteran now and understands how to adjust to adjustments. He seems to be in a better mental place as well. His skill set could be conducive to allowing change to take root, as the contact rate is high and he doesn’t swing and miss often. In addition, he’s learned how to hit left-handed pitching, to the point where some of the numbers are better than against righties.
Now, in the short term, I do have some concerns. The BABIP over the past month has been an insane .478. That’s coming down. And that spike in ground balls is troubling. With that said, he does get to face some juicy pitching staffs in the Nationals, Rockies (in Denver), and Pirates over the next couple of weeks. In addition, the Cardinals have slotted Wong second in the batting order over the past 11 games.
Wong seems to be in a nice groove, so I’d keep rolling him out there. But I’d have my fingers close to the eject button, as regression could be coming. If the Cardinals drop him in the batting order, I’m out. Until then….
VERDICT
