I rarely go to Starbucks. I’m good with my Jose’s Vanilla Nut from Costco thank you very much, but when I do enter one, I turn into a complete psycho. I blame the siren on the logo that must be whispering sweet nothings into my ear. Hi, Shelley. Yes, I’d like the largest sized mocha frappaccino with oreo cookie crumbles and a blueberry scone. I don’t care how much it costs and how many calories they are. Also, that article I read the other day about how the pastries are not fresh? I. Don’t. Care. One must indulge from time to time and that costs money. Yes, I could run next door to the supermarket and get a six-pack of scones for the same price, but who has time for that. Plus, the sirens. Anyways, as many of us need our caffeine and pastry fixes in real life, the same goes for power in the fantasy world. Well, C. J. Cron of the Minnesota Twins has plenty of power and the cost to acquire could be relatively cheap, as he’s owned in less than 50% of ESPN leagues. Let’s see if he’s trash or treasure.
Cron began his professional career with the Angels in 2011. He made it to The Show in 2014 and displayed teenage pop, .260-270 batting average, 20-25% strikeout rate, and 4-6% walk rate over the next four years. Unfortunately, the Sciosciapath would never give him full time at-bats and relegated him to platoon duty. In 2018, the Angels traded him to the Rays and what do you know? He clubbed 30 home runs in 560 plate appearances. The strikeouts ticked up to 26% and the batting averaging went down to .253, but the walk rate increased to 6.6% and the ISO was a career-high .240. Due to mainly roster issues, the Rays designated Cron for assignment, when the Twins swooped in and claimed him off waivers.
So far in 2019, Cron is batting .263 with 12 home runs. The strikeout rate is 21.3% and the walk rate is a career-high 7.1%. The ISO has climbed to .270, while the BABIP is only .264. Looks good so far. Let’s dig a little deeper.
Cron is hitting more line drives this year and fewer infield flys. The pull percentage is slightly down, but the approach looks to be the same. The HR/FB rate is at a career-high 28.6%, so some regression could take place. Last season, that number was 21.4%. Looking at the Statcast data, the launch angle has actually decreased 1.6, from 15.2 down to 13.6. The barrel%, though, has spiked from 12.2 to 16.9.
In terms of plate discipline, the contact rates are up and he’s chasing 32.1% of pitches outside the strike zone. That’s a high number, but it’s a career-low for Cron, as his career rate is 38.1% and last season that number was at 38.5%.
In terms of splits, Cron has been absolutely demolishing left-handed pitching (.355/.400/.871). The sample size is small, though, as he’s only had 35 plate appearances against them. His career slash against LHP is .269/.317/.484. As for righties, he’s been below his career averages, but the numbers haven’t been too far off, so I wouldn’t expect too much movement either way. The one discernible number that I see in the splits is that he’s been unlucky at home, as the BABIP is only .212. All the other numbers look fine, so I’d expect some positive regression at home.
All in all, Cron is who we think he is, as he will provide a .260 average and approach 30 home runs for the season. He primarily bats fifth in the Twins lineup, which is juicy because they are second in all of baseball in runs scored and second in OPS.
I wouldn’t overpay for Cron, but if you can get him relatively cheap, I’d be more than happy with rostering him. TREASURE
