Ren & Stimpy. Beavis & Butt-head. Laverne & Shirley. Will & Grace. Tom & Jerry. Sanford & Son. Rizzoli & Isles. Franklin & Bash. Hollywood has always had a fascination with highlighting the relationship between two. It makes sense. The world is dualistic in nature. Yin and Yang. Good versus Evil. White and Black. Whatever the reason, that is what the people enjoy and, whatever the people enjoy, is where the money flows to. The world is such a simple place. With the inaugural baseball Bear or Bull article coinciding with the beginning of the new television season, I thought it would be appropriate to pay homage to the famous pairings of TV past and bring you pairs on a weekly basis. I am a person of the people after all. Honestly, Jay, my editor and top-10 fantasy football ranker, asked me to talk about two similar players every week. That wouldn’t make for an interesting open though. So with that said, until the regular season starts, you shall be blessed with a double shot of Bear or Bull every week!!! Who doesn’t like a 2-for-1? Well, I usually do except when that one owner offers up Kenta Maeda and Jacoby Ellsbury for Mike Trout every week. EF that guy!
For this week’s edition, I chose to write about Rick Porcello and Danny Duffy, the perfect TV couple, hence Porcello & Duffy. Porcello is a righty and relies more on guile and craftiness. Duffy, on the other hand, literally throws with the other hand and can bring the heat to make both men and women alike soil their panties. According to NFBC ADP data as of 1/16/17, Porcello is the 24th pitcher off the board at pick 108 and Duffy is the 25th pitcher at pick 111.21. To find out who is a bear and who is a bull, stay tuned after the break. What would a TV-inspired article be without an interlude? Instead of a commercial, though, enjoy one of my favorite music videos of all time.
Best video of all time. Hands down. Okay, back to our regular scheduled programming.
Rick Porcello
Porcello’s first year in Boston was a dud. That made him an undervalued asset going into last year, rewarding those that took a flyer on him with a career year. He pitched 223 innings which was the most in forever ever. That was only the second time in his eight year professional career that he had eclipsed the 200 inning threshold. The 3.15 ERA was the best in forever ever. The 189 strikeouts was the best in….
I’m selling Porcello at his current price. <ducks> I realize he just won the AL Cy Young, but I feel like everything aligned for him last year. Kind of like how Chris Moneymaker won the World Series of Poker back in 2003. On a side note, does anyone believe his name is Moneymaker? Seriously? Porcello had a strand rate of 74.3%, after languishing in the high 60s for most of his career. The BABIP was .269. That number will probably be closer to .300. Looking at his pitch profile, there was nothing out of the ordinary. He threw his fastball 61.8% of the time, slider 12.4%, curveball 13.7%, and changeup 12.1%. He did throw his fastball a little less and slider a little more, but nothing too drastric from career norms. The batted ball profile does show some interesting things. The GB/FB rate was 1.13 in 2016. That’s the lowest mark in…..please refer to the above video. The career rate is 1.70. The HR/FB was only 9.3%, while the career mark is 11.3%. I do have to give him a ton of credit for lowering his walk rate. That has been a weakness throughout his career. Was 2016 an anomaly or the beginning of a trend? I’m always willing to give credit to players learning and improving their craft as they get older, so the improvement in controlling the strike zone is something I can buy into. With that said, I do think the stars aligned for Porcello last season. Will he be a good pitcher? I think he will. Will he be Cy Young-caliber? I have my doubts. I would have a hard time paying for a career year from a pitcher that has a K/9 in the mid-7s and throws around 90 mph.
VERDICT:
Danny Duffy
If any of you have read my stuff in the past, you know that I have always had a soft spot in my heart for Duffy. Go back into my archives if you are a non-believer. Plus, I have a need for speed. Fast cars, women, and arms. Hmmm, that makes no sense whatsoever but you know what I mean. Duffy could always throw hard. Mid-to-upper 90s. Unfortunately, he was early Ricky Vaughn-esque. Juuuuuust a bit outside. I’m a Raiders fan, so it’s possible that all those years of Al Davis’ need for speed seeped into my baseball brain. I guess Duffy is like Davis’ Darrius Heyward-Bey. Now, imagine if Heyward-Bey learned how to catch. That’s basically Duffy’s 2016. He got his walk rate down to 5.8%. That figure was 9% in 2015, 8.8% in 2014, 13.5% in 2013, and 14.9% in 2012. It’s definitely been a #Process. How many years did it take Sam Hinke to land Joel Embid? Exactly. Now, there are some definite concerns here with Duffy. He allowed 27 home runs, 26 to righties. RHB went .250/.305/.455 against Duffy last season. The 179.2 innings pitched last season were the most in……I should’ve just titled this piece “Forever Ever.” He had never gone over 150 in a season prior to last year. Now, here’s the good. 9.42 K/9. 12.9% swinging strike rate. The Royals just signed him to a five-year, $65 million extension. That information is better than looking at the Vegas O/U to figure out who to play in DFS. And that ain’t chump change. That’s a significant investment. The Royals also have one of the best defenses in all of baseball, which is good for any pitcher. He still throws really hard. The thing that gets me rock hard about Duffy is his new approach. He has basically scratched the curveball and gone to a fastball, slider, changeup arsenal. He threw the changeup 17.1% of the time last year. Since he throws mid-90s, I think the slider and changeup complement his fastball so much better. If you pay for Porcello, you are paying for last year’s performance, which is basically his ceiling. With Duffy, there is just so much more upside.
VERDICT:
