I hate the All-Star break. There are no games to watch, no games to bet on, no DFS, and no accumulating stats for fantasy. My life is empty and meaningless, except for the wife and two kids thing. The worst thing about the All-Star break is the All-Star game itself. That one game exhibition, in which no one tries hard, determines home field for the World Series? Seriously? How the F-ing, F did someone think that would be a good idea? Even my tree-puffing, shroom-eating self would have thought that was a bad idea. Want to make the All-Star game competitive? Make contracts non-guaranteed, like in football, for the losing squad. I bet we’d see some epic battles then. This article was written and submitted prior to the All-Star game, so if it was an epic, competitive game, spam the MLB front offices with your approval.
No Whammies! is a weekly column that highlights some lower-owned players that performed well over the past week. If you are not familiar with whammies, please go YouTube episodes of the gameshow Press Your Luck. I will try my best to steer you clear of those whammies and bring glory, fortune, and fame into your life.
I want to begin this week with Kennys Vargas of the Minnesota Twins. Or is it Kenny’s Vargas? What’s a Vargas? Whatever it is, I want some because Kennys is hitting .471/.609/1.294 with three home runs since getting called up on July 4th. Before you all go ape-s@#t, that’s 6 games and 23 plate appearances worth of data. Small sample, as my wife constantly tells me. Any wonder why I write about baseball? Kenny’s ISO is…Is it Kenny’s or Kennys’? Mr. Var….K.V.’s ISO is .824. He’s walking 26.1% of the time and has only struck out 13%. If you don’t think regression is coming, then you probably think having the All-Star game decide home field advantage for the World Series is a good thing, and you probably think spraying AXE on your body will get women to chase after you. For the three women readers, spraying anything on your body will get guys to chase after you. Actually, even if you didn’t shower for a week, guys would…okay, I’ll stop. K.V. has always had a strikeout rate in the 20-30% range, so that 13% mark is not going to continue. He has shown the propensity to walk in the minors (15-17%), but in 155 major league games, that rate was only 5%. K.V. is a switch hitter that has a better batting average from the right side of the plate, but more power as a lefty. He can also play some first base, so he and Joe Mauer can both DH and play first. The projections have him for .250/.320/.435 with around 5 home runs with a .185 ISO, 26% strikeout rate, and 9% walk rate. Keep in mind that the projections only have him playing 20-40 games, depending on which system you look at. Vargas is only 25 years old and this will be his third, and maybe, last time to shine with the Twins. He’s shown the ability to walk in the minors, and for me, that’s the key. If he can display that command of the strike zone, I’m very intrigued because the power will be there. With that said, the return of Trevor Plouffe or Byung-Ho Park could make playing time an issue, but I am bullish that Vargas can perform and keep the playing time intact.
Since July 4th, Luis Valbuena has collected a hit in every game and clubbed three home runs. Mr. Vargas, mentioned above, has also been balling since the 4th. Coincidence? I think not. USA! USA! USA! On the season, Valbuena is batting .269/.364/.474 with 12 home runs. He’s walking 12.8% of the time, but striking out 24.9%. He’s pulling the ball at a career-high 48.4% rate. As you all know, I subscribe to the theory of C.R.E.A.M. Valbuena is on a 1-year/$6.1 million contract. Super-prospect Alex Bregman is tearing up the minors and could be called up any minute. Luis ain’t going out like that though! If you need some cheap power at the corner infield spot, then Luis is your man. He’s swinging for the fences y’all. That’s the only way he’s going to keep playing and get that next contract, but he’s not flailing away like some villain in a horror movie. He’s being patient, as evidenced by his walk rate and swing percentage (43%). He’s waiting for his pitch, like a jaguar waiting to pounce on its prey in the jungle. When he gets it? This. Now, the BABIP is a touch high at .331 and so is the batting average (.269), but you are not searching for Ichiro here. Chicks (and you) dig the long ball. As long as Luis gets playing time, he should be effective. Just realize that may not be in Houston.
Ervin Santana is coming off a complete-game, eight strikeout, two-hit shutout over the Oakland Athletics. In his three prior games, he did not allow more than two earned runs against the Rangers and Yankees. There’s definitely fantasy value here, as long as you keep your expectations and perspective in check. Santana is a righty that throws his fastball in the 92 mph range. He complements that with a slider and changeup. Interestingly, he’s throwing his fastball under 50% of the time for the first time in his career, while the slider has seen a sizeable uptick. Santana will have a 6.5-7 K/9 with a 2.5 BB/9. His ERA will be around 4. Since Santana will probably be a streaming or DFS option, here are two splits that will be pertinent. His ERA in day games is 2.82, while at night it’s 5.82. Righties are batting .293 with 7 homers, while lefties are hitting .236 with 4 homers.
Thanks for reading and good luck when the real games return. You can reach me anytime on the Twitter @Stan_Son.
