Hope you all had a Happy Fourth of July holiday. USA! USA! USA! There are two sides to every coin, though. Imagine how England has felt for the past 240 years? It’s gotta be ten times worse than how I feel due to the Dodgers trading Pedro Martinez for Delino DeShields back in 1993. If you still can’t feel the pain, then imagine Draymond Green kicking you in the nuts. These vomit-inducing scenarios are what it feels like when contestants landed on a whammy in the gameshow Press Your Luck. What I try to do in this weekly column is highlight some of the lower-owned players, that performed well over the past week, and steer you clear of those whammies. Without further ado…
I heard that Grey hired a new translator. It’s none other than Seth Smith aka the Lisper’s Nightmare. Maybe that’s why Jose Canseco hung up in the podcast interview. He couldn’t understand the question! Get him back on the phone now! Smith has been on fire the last week, clubbing four home runs. For the season, he’s hitting .274 with 10 home runs, 36 runs scored, and 38 RBI. The Mariners are ranked 8th in all of baseball in runs scored and Smith is batting second in the lineup. Safeco’s right field is rated Above Average for left-handed batters. Smith’s peripherals look solid as well. He’s walking 10%, while striking out 19% of the time and his contact rates are close to career-highs. The BABIP is in-line at .306. There are some things to be wary of, though. The ground ball rate is at a career-high 49.1% and fly ball percentage is at 32% (career 37.8%). The home run/fly ball rate is at 18.5% vs 11.6% career average. He’s not going to contribute in stolen bases and there’s the whole I’m terrible against left-handed pitching thing. Good thing that roughly 3/4 of starting pitching is right-handed. He’s not a sexy option and won’t carry a fantasy team, but he can be a solid contributor the rest of the season. Just manage expectations.
So, we have Ticker Tease, which is worse than having blue balls and getting kicked by Draymond Green. What’s the opposite? Do we have a term for that at Razzball? Is it just Orgasm? Well, if you owned C.J. Cron, then that’s what you experienced last week, highlighted by his 6/6, 2 homer game against the Red Sawx. Cro-magnon see ball, hit ball, but he’s been more than a neanderthal, as he’s been making the necessary adjustments since arriving to the Show in 2014. Cron has improved his walk and strikeout rates every year. He has also increased his opposite field usage every year as well. I love seeing that, as he’s becoming more mature in his approach and understanding major league pitching. The Angels aren’t a prolific offense, but Escobar, Calhoun, and Trout get on-base at a high clip, so there will be opportunities to drive in runs. Power with improving discipline and maturity? Yes, please.
When David Wright went down for the Mets, it was Wilmer Flores that was inserted into the lineup. Wait?! I’m confused. Wasn’t Flores traded, then he cried, then hit a walk-off home run, then he cried, then back to the Mets, then he cried? Checks box score. Yep, that’s him alright. He went 6/6 with two home runs against the Cubs? Deja vu. Glitch in the matrix. Am I still writing about C.J. Cron? Nope, that’s Flores alright. Anyways, if you are depending on Flores, then it’s probably time to start reading those way-too-early-released fantasy football magazines. If you haven’t heard, the Mets signed Jose Reyes and he’s expected to play third base when he’s ready. Here’s a ballad for Flores.
Most of the season, I thought Junior Guerra was Javy Guerra. As a Dodgers fan, I was like, so that’s where Guerra ended up. I’m sure all of you follow Tehol, so you know Guerra intimately well. If you are not following Tehol on Twitter, go do it now (@LordBeddict). I heard he gives away special prizes when he hits certain thresholds for followers. Back to Guerra, Junior not Javy, is 31 years old and this is his second year in the bigs. His ERA is 2.93, but FIP is 3.55 and xFIP is 4.02. The K/9 rate is 7.87 and BB/9 is 2.70. Doesn’t sound too exciting and the BABIP is a miniscule .236. Everything is screaming regression. Here’s why I like him. He can get his fastball up to 95 mph, which makes his splitter that much more devastating. His swinging strike percentage is 11%, which places him 26th among all MLB pitchers. Oh, and Tehol dropped him a while ago, so you know the Elder Gods will make sure that Guerra continues to ball out so that they can be entertained by Tehol’s rants on Twitter.
Most humans appreciate predictability and continuity. When a driver puts the right blinker on, we expect the car to turn right. If we boil water, we expect it to be hot. In the fantasy world, when we project a player to do x, we hope that’s how it plays out. For those that drafted Dee Gordon to take care of steals, you know what I’m talking about. Which brings me to Scott Kazmir, the most unpredictable pitcher in fantasy. You look at the splits and see that his ERA at home is 3.51, while on the road it’s 5.40. Righties are batting .251, while lefties .196. So, what does he do in Chicago against the Cubs on May 31st? 6 innings of shutout baseball with 7 strikeouts. The 101 strikeouts in 94 2/3 innings is tantalizing, but are you going to start him every time out? How do you decide? In 17 starts, he’s gone six or more innings eight times. He’s struck out a batter-per-inning in nine starts, while walking four or more in five. He’s allowed two or more home runs in six starts. I’d rather go to Vegas and play CASINO WAR.
Thank you for reading and good luck this week. You can reach SON on the Twitter @Stan_Son.
