Major League Baseball has now played eight of 26 weeks this season, which means we have some stats, but not quite enough, to evaluate players for our fantasy baseball squads. With Opening Day well past us and the dog days of summer right around the corner, who have been some of the more interesting risers and fallers?
In the aggregate, six weeks of production are not a lot of information to use when evaluating players for the rest of the season. That’s why it’s also important to look at usage, lineup placement, platoon splits, and other factors when trying to determine what to do with tough player choices.
This piece will look at some MLB fantasy assets that have seen their fantasy value rise and fall through the first eight weeks of games. This will hopefully give us an idea of what to do with these players moving forward.
Roster percentages (from Yahoo) and stats include all games finished by May 21.
MLB Risers
Isaac Paredes (3B), Houston Astros
Unless your name is Jeremy Pena or Isaac Paredes, if you are on the Houston Astros, you suck at hitting right now. Yainier Diaz stinks. Jose Altuve stinks. Christian Walker stinks. Hey, at least Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker are having MVP-level seasons! But Isaac Paredes, that’s the good stuff. Over the last 13 games, Paredes is hitting .306/.404/.735 with a crazy six home runs and 13 RBI.
Parades was born to hit home runs at the short porch in left field at Daiken Park, and the past two weeks have shown why he was a key part of the Tucker trade with the Chicago Cubs. Perhaps most impressively, he is walking 14% of the time while striking out just 12% of his plate appearances. The scary thing is, with just a .250 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), he could be even better in the weeks ahead.
Bo Bichette (SS), Toronto Blue Jays
It’s been a tale of two months for Bo Bichette to start 2025. He somehow left his power in Spring Training and forgot to go back and pick it up until May. In March/April, Bichette had a slugging percentage of just .364. For perspective, that’s what Keibert Ruiz has right now. In May, that number is .513. Now are are in Jose Ramriez territory and looking much better than when the season started.
In some sense, we will probably always be chasing the 29 home runs and 25 stolen bases from Bichette in 2021 when he was a 23-year-old. But he is on the brink of a 20/20 pace right now, and striking out less than ever before (17%). All of his underlying metrics have improved from his disastrous 2024 campaign, and the arrow is pointing clearly up for Bichette the rest of the season as the Blue Jays’ offense starts to improve.
Kris Bubic (SP), Kansas City Royals
If you picked Kris Bubic to have the second-best ERA in the AL over the past month, congratulations on all the fantasy championships you are going to win this year. His. 1.47 ERA is second only to Max Fried (1.29) in the AL and comes with nine strikeouts per nine innings and a minuscule 0.44 home run per fly ball rate.
After Tommy John ended his 2023 season, Bubis has been building back strength since and has developed one of the best fastballs in the game in the process. According to Statcast, he has one of the best swing-and-miss rates on his fastball of any pitcher in baseball this year. On a pitching staff that has always found the best out of unheralded characters, Bubic is the latest to rise to the top as one of the new best pitchers in fantasy baseball.
MLB Fallers
Kristian Campbell (2B), Boston Red Sox
Rookie wall, meet Kristian Campbell. Kristian Campbell, meet rookie wall. They have gotten to know each other well over the last couple of weeks, so much so that Campbell was given a couple of days as a mental and physical break after some downright miserable performances. In that span, he is hitting .073/.116/.146 with a 37% strikeout rate. He has two RBI and no stolen bases. By some measurements (actually, many measurements), Campbell has been the worst hitter in baseball the last 14 days.
Say what you will about wRC+, but it is an offensive catch-all that encompasses a player’s production. Campbell is a negative-39 in that time. Only two players have negative numbers in that span, and second place has just a negative-15. Campbell’s barrel rate in that time is only 4%, and his hard-hit rate is just 40%. That’s not a recipe for success, but at least Campbell has the pedigree and talent to eventually overcome this massive slump.
Luis Robert Jr. (OF), Chicago White Sox
Sometime in life, even if you have nothing, a little self-awareness can be helpful. Such is the case with Luis Robert Jr., who is playing poorly right now and was recently asked about the prospects of being traded this season. His response was, “Right now, as my season is going, I don’t think anybody is going to take a chance on me.” Thanks for the honesty, kid. Now, this could be some psychological ploy to get a team to take a chance on him and get him out of Chicago, but regardless, the performance has been abysmal lately.
Over his last 43 plate appearances, Robert is hitting .143/.163/.167 with no home runs and a 28% strikeout rate. He is walking just 2% of the time and has just a .024 ISO. But it isn’t just the last couple of weeks. On the season, he is at just .178/.270/.294 in 187 plate appearances. If not for his 17 stolen bases, this would be a disastrous fantasy option for our rosters.
Max Meyer (SP), Miami Marlins
After a stretch of dominating performances in April against the Mets, Diamondbacks, and Reds, where he piled up 26 strikeouts with only three earned runs allowed, Max Meyer was looking like the next dominant young starter in the NL. And while a strong performance against the Chicago Cubs on May 21 gives some glimmer of hope, it doesn’t change the fact that it’s been an uphill battle for Meyer lately.
In May, Meyer’s strikeout rate dropped from 33% last month to just 16% so far this month. His ERA ballooned from 3.48 to 5.16. It appears the culprit is Meyer giving up a ton more line drives and fly balls. With a 56% groundball rate in the first month, coupled with the 33% strikeout rate, life was good for Meyer. This month, that is down to 45%, with a lot more balls being hit hard. It could just be some young pitcher hurdles, but manage expectations if things don’t change soon.
Campbell will bust. They’ve already figured out what he can’t hit.
I’m a long-term believer, but he was really thrown into it this year and will need these adjustment periods for a while