You the man now dog! [Sean Connery bot, terminate program] Yes, friends, family, and internet stalkers, come into my brownstone that reeks of 12-year-old Appleton Estate and box wine and let me tell you the good word about men who throw balls hard. Fear not as you enter Draftland, the ESPN-owned theme park located in middle Tennessee, where you undoubtedly take Trea Turner 1.01 and then ask yourself, “But…now I’m waiting for 23 picks until a pitcher…who will I take?” OK, Rebecca Black, just chill out and choose a seat already. Let’s finish up the lede before I write another 8,000 words on why you shouldn’t draft Gerrit Cole in the first round and you don’t listen to me anyway and then you throw that $1700 Main Event entry fee down the drain. Coulda had a MacBook!
That Pitcher Ain’t Right
I’ll save you 20 minutes of your life: Last year, I wrote a missive on how we all rank and draft pitchers wrong. It was long, it was nominated for a few awards, it helped me get a cool job, and it was more or less right. How do I know? Because I just got nominated for the Best Baseball Article of the Millennium (or year, I’m a bit fuzzy on that detail) by the Fantasy Sports Writers’ Association! Also, the other finalists are really cool and fun, go read their work.
BEST BASEBALL ARTICLE
Kenyatta Storin @KenyattaStorin
Blair Williams @EverywhereBlair
John Laghezza @MLBMovingAvg— FSWA (@FSWA) January 21, 2022
Whatever, I’m not here to marinate in your accolades (please praise me, I have no self-esteem). But here’s one of the many takeaways: us imaginary baseball managers? Only two times in the past 20 years have we properly valued and drafted the top starting pitcher. The other 90% of the time? You woulda been better off just picking a name out of your fantasy black book (2022 version has an entire chapter dedicated to Robbie Ray’s pants). Last year, I suggested that we would likely find the 2021 fantasy SP1 around round 2-4 of the draft. Now, check the Razzball Player Rater. Or don’t. I’ll do it for you: Max Scherzer was SP1 in 2021. His ADP? 24. End of second round. How about SP2? Walker Buehler, ADP 21. SP3? Julio Urias (thank you wacky win count), with an ADP of 118. Gerrit Cole was the only pitcher taken in the first round who returned top 10 value in 2021, and he still had roughly the same value as Robbie Ray, who was basically undrafted. Well, you Razzball readers didn’t leave him on the board because I was telling you all off-season that he had enormous comeback potential.
In case you didn’t hear, we here at Razzball are pretty good at what we do: Grey was the top pitcher ranker in 2020, Rudy bested most of the industry in his pitcher projections, and I once struck out 11 batters in a Little League game while also walking 6. No wonder I love Robbie Ray so much!
ENYWHEY, let’s talk about some non-traditional options for finding that SP1 for 2022.
Your Unsung SP1’s
Aaron Nola (NFBC ADP: 42, Rudy’s Rank: SP15): If I were Grey, I’d start this blurb with some joke like, “What do you call a southern bayou metropolis. A Nola!” and then cackle at myself and mutter something about how they don’t make movies like they used to while the dulcet soundtrack to Sharknado played in the background. ENYWHEY. Let’s do a comparison:
- 2021 Player A: 3.37 xERA, 11.1 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 32 starts
- 2021 Player B: 3.13 xERA, 12.06 K/9, 2 BB/9, 30 starts
- 2021 Player C: 3.1 xERA, 9.2 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 33 starts
OK you Wordle masters, you probably figured out that one of those is Aaron Nola already because you read the header. He’s Player A because I don’t like to leave you guessing. The other pitchers? Player B is Gerrit Cole and Player C is Julio Urias. Cole is going in round 1 on average and Urias is going in round 3 according to early NFBC drafts. Meanwhile, you’re grabbing bats in rounds 1 through 3 because you’re going with NO FEAR NOLA. [imagine those 90s shirts on him] Nola’s FIPs and SIERA were a full 1.30 points lower than his craptacular 4.60 ERA in 2021. That kind of ERA-FIP discrepancy was the reason William James crafted his system of evaluating players using arcane mathematical equations to show the true value of the player. And here we are, some 40 years later, still ignoring those stats because ERA is just so understandable. [coughs] Maybe we can get Nola to do a mid-season trade to the Orioles and pitch 50% of the time in the new canyon that is Camden Yards. Nola is a good pitcher and he’s going on average in the 4th round in early drafts. Sounds like hitter, hitter, hitter, Nola to me.
Robbie Ray (NFBC ADP: 46; Rudy’s Rank: SP9): Yes I do have other hits other than Robbie Ray but Tag Team made one hit 30 years ago and they’re still riding that wave today so you’re not stopping me on my Robbie Ray flow. There are a buncha rankers on other sites (cough Man Tracks cough) that dare to put R Squared in the SP20-40 range. Me? He’s SP8 on my early list, which absolutely is not made for clickbait or attracting haterade. Oh, you’re upset you have to wait until February to hear my rankings? Sure, go shout at the mountain. In the meantime, here are Rudy’s 2022 Razzball Steamer Projections for starters, where you’ll find Ray as SP9 on his esteemed ranking system. RoRay (no not the Gilmore Girls character) won the 2021 AL Cy Young, the award which is given to pitchers who are most likely to wear old-timey clothes in a non-ironic fashion. And like his heroes in the Renaissance, Robbie Ray found the tightest pants he could fit in and rode those stretched seams to glory. Problem is, is that Ray took his excellent performance and decided to take his talents to…the Seattle Mariners. OK, I like the Mariners as a team, sure, but what are the chances that Ray exceeds his wins expectation there? Meh. There’s also the problem that Ray basically became a two-pitch starter last year, and he even had some games where he threw his fastball 75% of the time. The only other starter that’s had any success with that level of fastball-ness is Lance Lynn. So here’s the part of the story where we imagine that Robbie Ray continues his 2021 success except he ends up with Julio Urias’ win luck. That’s how we end up with the first Mariners’ fantasy SP1 since King Felix. Also, speaking of Lance Lynn and Felix Hernandez, did you know they’re the same age? Yeesh.
Charlie Morton (NFBC ADP: 96; Rudy’s Rank: SP16): I’m as fond of Pirate memories as the next 40-year-old who came to maturation while suckling on Pirates of the Caribbean movies, but here’s one guy that I’m glad got the boot from the Bucs. C-Mort — the long-lost cousin of Razzball favorite C-Mart — has quietly been one of the best pitchers in MLB over the past few years. Here’s where he finished on the Player Rater recently:
- 2021: SP11
- 2020: Way effing down because of Covid complications and short season
- 2019: SP7
- 2018: SP17
- 2017: SP23
Like, what the fudge else are you waiting for? He’s been your team’s SP1 or SP2 every single year since you were in Junior High (I write to you like you’re 18) and somehow he’s still being drafted as [checks notes] SP37 on NFBC. Yeah, NFBC, where the sharps play. Or, maybe they’re just so caught up in throwing money at the ceiling that Detective Poirot — that plucky Golden Age Belgian chap — could enter the room and say, “Yup, there’s some rubes here.” OK, Morton’s 38 and quickly approaching the age where it’s just so much easier to sit on the couch and not pitch, but the ATLiens are World Series-prepped and Morton is the ace [stop arguing] of the team. Imagine he gets a bit of Win luck like Scherzer/Buehler/Urias had last year while also reaping the benefits of his FIP, which was about 10% lower than his ERA. That’s a magic spell for SP1 upside. Even if Morton doesn’t get lucky [Pharrell plays in the background], then you’re looking at, what, a top 20 SP that’s being drafted as nearly SP40? Like, how easy is this fantasy baseball game? It’s so easy even I can play it! Hardy har har. Told you I liked Pirates.
Drop your comments below on who you think has an outside chance of being SP1 in 2022, and have an awesome week!
