Point Shares for 10/12/14/15/16-team MLB were updated on Sunday night (March 11th) to reflect the latest available playing time projections. There will be some movement in the rankings based on the playing time changes. I also took a deeper look into relievers possibly converting to starters (Sale, Crow, Bard, Aroldis) to make sure their projections reflected their role (i.e., a pitcher’s projections for ERA/WHIP/K rate are better as relievers vs. starters so if you use ‘reliever’ ERA and starter IP, you end up with very bullish projections).
In addition, I’ve added the following:
- 10-team and 12-team NL Point Shares. Congrats Joey Votto on being #1. Thank Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder for that honor (NL 1B is so bad. I have Freddie Freeman ranked as the 2nd best 1B! He shouldn’t be in the top 2 of anything except maybe active Reggie Cleveland All-Stars.
- OBP/OPS/SLG Guidance – It was clear from our recent poll that many of you are playing with categories besides 5×5. It’s impossible without some serious development to deliver all the possible league permutations but this page provides the following guidance (based on 12-team values):
- Point Share/$ value change per hitter if your league uses OBP instead of AVG
- The Point Shares/$ value change if your league uses OBP/OPS/SLG as a 6th category
Rudy, you are the best. Thanks!
@Ted, No prob. Good luck!
Can anyone put this in a .xls file? I can’t access google doc’s from work :(
@timSTi, You can’t wait until you get home? :)
Rudy, thanks for the only-league love. You are the man.
@jose tartabull, thanks
Rudy, do you recommend at $165/90 split for MLB leagues only, or also NL-only leagues? Or is $180/80 still the optimal split for NL-only?
I like $180/$80 for AL/NL-only leagues. There are only a finite amount of hitters who get ABs. I like $165/$95 for up to 16 team MLB.
This is money, literally. I used it last year and won by a landslide. Thanks!
@schlitzy, Nice.
Call me a little ignorant toward the whole Point Shares topic, but would this stuff help at all for my standard, snake draft, 10 team H2H league?
@B.o.B, Yes. Point Shares is just a methodology to determine the value of a player’s stats relative to their position. So the 10 team Point Shares for ESPN or Yahoo (assuming you use one of those two roster formats) should work as a rankings. There’s a link under the charts with more info but don’t consider it mandatory reading.
@Rudy Gamble, Awesome! Thanks Rudy! I’ll definitely look into this more and put it to use for my drafts. And yes I use Yahoo. Keep up the good work!
@B.o.B., Thanks and good luck!
I am with B.o.B but maybe not as extreme. What am I looking at here? Why is Miguel Cabrera so low on this list? Do you have an article from the past that can explain this to me as I am new to this whole concept?
Hey Rudy – great stuff. Looks to me like Mauer is around 80 or so when you add OBP as a category.
This puts him in about the middle of the 7th round. I know Point Shares aren’t a draft order per se, but would you consider Mauer around this spot in a 12-team H2H league that counts OBP as well as AVE?
@Steve, Oops. Haven’t interpreted the numbers quite right! I’ll cut to the chase – where would you draft Mauer in the league I described above?
@Steve, And just so I’m sure I’m doing it right, I’m adding the column headed ‘OBP’ to the column headed ‘ 5×5 Total’ to get the revised Point Shares for players in a league that includes OBP as a sixth category?
@Steve, Yes, exactly. Just add/subtract the OBP as 6th category column to the 5×5 $ amount. If you’re in a snake draft, you’d add them up and just re-rank.
@Rudy Gamble, Thanks for the confirmation. That ranks Mauer around 15th. Obviously you don’t take him in the second round, but where do you take him in a 12 teamed with OBP as the 6th category?
I like at least a 2 round discount for catchers. I wouldn’t draft him before late 4th or the 5th round. I don’t have him targeted for any of my leagues given the injury history but adding OBP definitely increases his value…
Hi Rudy. Thanks for the updated point shares. I am trying to find a way to use them in two upcoming 14 team mlb (snake) roto drafts. Would you average these with Grey’s top 300? Just use the point shares for a draft list? How do you use the point shares for your snake drafts? Thanks and good work on the podcast. Funny stuff.
@boomer19, Boomer! You can use either Grey’s rankings or my 14 team Point Shares or an average or some other weighted concoction. Grey and I co-draft so during a 14-team snake draft, we’re looking at the default rankings on the drafting site, I’m looking at my Point Shares, and Grey is looking at his rankings (I assume…but he has that stuff pretty well internalized). If the guy I like from PS isn’t towards the top overall available player or for their position in the draft site’s ADP, I lay low on that player for a round. If I see a number of good players at a position, I’ll likely wait on the position. My goal is to grab guys when they are likely to be drafted by everyone else but when they are also a discount from my Point Shares. If I really don’t like a guy, I don’t draft him. If Grey really doesn’t like a guy, we don’t draft him. We debate on players that one likes and one isn’t crazy about. Hope that helps and glad you like the podcast!
are the AL only leagues still in the pipeline?
I’ll post them but it’ll be around Opening Day since our AL ‘money’ league drafts pretty late. It’s our first time in this one and it involves some professional poker players. We can’t be showing our hand before the draft…
@Rudy Gamble,
Thanks Rudy. And good luck in the league. Any other sources of projected values you can recommend?
So, basically every SS in baseball is a bad value pick except for Hanley and Ian Desmond, huh? That’s scary. Not sure I’d want to spend my 1st/early 2nd round pick on Hanley after last season. And I owned Ian Desmond last year in a roto league, and I had to drop him 2/3 of the way through the season when his average was down way too close to .200 and was just killing my AVG. Don’t think I can put myself through that again.
Where are you looking in terms of SS this year? I also noticed that Cozart doesn’t fare nearly as well here as he does in Grey’s man crush rankings.
@Art Vandelay, It’s true that SS seems overrated against ADP but every draft is different. Seems like Alexei Ramirez has fallen in my drafts to date. I like Dee Gordon if you get him after the 10th round and light on steals. I think Cozart is okay but he doesn’t profile as very good at anything. He could go 15/15. He could go 10/10. Not a great AVG. Okay as an MI flier in 12-team leagues but would want to pay very little or get him late in snake drafts.
Rudy, Can the point shares still be used for a head to head format?
Yes – here’s my quote from the V1 post, ““Yes, these apply for both Roto and H2H but make sure to load up your bench with SPs for matchups.”
Thanks Rudy. Awesome stuff
Hey Rudy,
I really appreciate all the work you do. I have IP as a 6th category for pitching. How would the Point Shares change?
Also, the SLG and OBP are great, very helpful.
@Conor, Hey Conor. IP just increases value of SPs. It would make me go from my typical 6 SP / 2-4 Closer / 1-2 MR structure to 7-8 SPs, 2-3 closer, 0 MR approach. Nets out to something similar to H2H.