Share on FacebookTweet about this on TwitterShare on Google+

I hear Jerry Dipoto kills the whistling solo from the Scorpions “Winds of Change“. Then again, it’s a whistling solo in a rock song. But that’s not the reason he kills it. Oh no, it’s because JDP, as I call him, loves change. I mean, JDP walks into a room and changes everything just because he can. He only leases cars, and never moves in with his girlfriends. He loves a good month to month contract, and has had 7 different hairstyles in the past 17 months. Suffice it to say things at his workplace are changing too. His work place just so happens to be the Seattle Mariners baseball club, and he just so happens to run the joint. He’s already made dozens of trades over the last couple of offseasons, and overhauled the organizational philosophy. Running a hitting summit for their minor  leaguers, focusing on cutting strikeouts, and improving contact rates. What followed were career years from some of their top power bats with contact woes, players like Tyler O’Neill, and DJ Peterson gained the most. All across the organization winning became a priority. In fact, all six of the Mariners minor league affiliates qualified for some sort of post season baseball, with Jackson their AA affiliate, and their rookie level Arizona League affiliate taking home titles. The changes are evident in the upside of their recent draft class too, spearheaded by 2016 Golden Spikes winner Kyle Lewis, and talented prep bat Joe Rizzo. Add that to trades for MLB ready talents, and the aforementioned break outs across the organization last year, and you have recipe for success. Big shouts to Tehol Beddict, Sky, and the rest of the Mariners fans here on Razzball. It’s the Top Seattle Mariners Prospects for 2017 Fantasy Baseball.

 

Tier 1: Specs On The Beach
Potential stars. Consensus T100 prospects with premium fantasy ceilings.

Tyler O’Neill, OF | Age: 21 | ETA: 2018 | 2016 Level: AA

The man, the myth, the legend, the King of the North! One of my personal favorites, O’Neill possesses elite bat speed, caveman power, and a students approach to the game. The strides he’s made as a hitter, and defender over the last year have me buying O’Neill as a future middle of the order bat. He was the best full season player in AA this year, leading the Jackson Generals to a Southern League title and hitting .293/.374/.508 with 24 homers, 102 rbis, and 12 steals in the process. My forthcoming top 100 might set the bar for O’Neill rankings in top 100 lists. Then again he’s high on Halp’s.

Kyle Lewis, OF | Age: 21 | ETA: 2019 | 2016 Level: Rk

I was all ready to rank Lewis as my top prospect in first year player drafts, but then two things happened. First Lewis blew out his knee in rookie ball which effectively ended his season, and two Nick Senzel decided to go bananas and steal the top spot. There’s not much to dislike about Lewis, he’s an advanced college bat with middle of the order upside. He’s going to be well within my top 50, and his workout updates on twitter are only testament of his work ethic and love for the game. That’s matters to me.

Tier 2: Floorboreds
Lacking the “star” upside. They might have some warts, but their ETAs are on the horizon.

Dan Vogelbach, 1B | Age: 24 | ETA: 2017 | 2016 Level: MLB/AAA

Is this the year the Jelly Donut of Swat breaks through the glass ceiling and finally graces the majors with his presence? My hope is yes, and quite honestly if he doesn’t I’m moving on. He struggled in Tacoma after being acquired from the Cubs, and didn’t look very good in his limited MLB at bats. When he’s at his best, he works counts, takes walks, and he makes hard contact to all fields. When he struggles, he strikes out and hits too many grounders for a player of his type. You either see a plus hit tool with developing power, or a quad A player.

Mitch Haniger, OF | Age: 26 | ETA: 2017 | 2016 Level: MLB/AAA/AA

The long shot has-been prospect reversed the course of his career with a major breakout in 2016. Staring across two levels before getting the call to Phoenix, Haniger put up arguably the best numbers in the minors. Unfortunately, even after the deal to the Mariners, it’s tough to figure where he fits into a crowded Major League outfield situation. With that said, if he wins a job out of camp he immediately becomes an interesting late round flier in deeper leagues, and one to add to your watch list early in 12 teamers too. He’s always possessed elite bat speed, and raw power, which he finally tapped into this season. His issue has never been ability as much as health. After dealing with several injuries early in his career he finally had a full healthy season. More than likely a 4th outfielder, but he has hope for more.

D.J. Peterson, 1B | Age: 25 | ETA: 2017 | 2016 Level: AAA/AA

After performing well below expectations in 2015 across the upper levels of the minors, Peterson took a step in the right direction in 2016. Embracing the Mariners new found organizational focus on plate approach, Peterson raised his batting average 50 points, and his slugging by about 70. While the increase in walk rate was incremental, the former top prospect focused on finding his pitch and driving it, and it worked. 2017 will be a big year for Peterson, we’ll see if he really took the jump or if he’s the washout we all labeled him a year ago.

Max Povse, RHP | Age: 23 | ETA: 2017 | 2016 Level: AA/A+

The 6’8 giant is truly a BORP type pitcher with very little upside. Not going to be a dominant player at any point in his career, but should be a streamable major league starter at certain times. Someone for the deep dynasty payers to make note of.

Dillon Overton, LHP | Age: 25 | ETA: 2017 | 2016 Level: MLB/AAA

A back of the rotation lefty, with an average fastball and three above average offspeed/breaking pitches. He was acquired from Oakland in January after he was surprisingly DFA’d. Though his major league debut didn’t go as planned, he still looks to profile as a very solid 5th starter if he can improve his command and avoid mainlining his mistakes.

Drew Jackson, SS | Age: 23 | ETA: 2018 | 2016 Level: A+

A 5th round pick out of Stanford in 2015, Jackson had a very strong showing in his rookie ball debut. Slashing .360/.434/.449 and swiping 47 bases in just 225 at bats. Last season was a different story, as he struggled to find any consistency at the plate, or on the bases. He still showed the ability to get on base, but the 16 total steals in his full season debut was a major let down.

Rob Whalen, RHP | Age: 23 | ETA: 2017 | 2016 Level: MLB/AAA/AA

Acquired from the Braves in the Alex Jackson trade, Whalen is a back of the rotation arm with a plus curveball, and a bulldog mentality. He struggles at time with control, but has shown the ability to miss bats and generate weak contact, and groundballs. Should be in the mix for a rotation spot with the Mariners this spring.

Ben Gamel, OF | Age: 24 | ETA: 2017 | 2016 Level: MLB/AAA

Former Yankees farmhand and brother of all time bust Mat Gamel, the lefthanded outfielder is a hit tool and speed player with some deep league relevancy. At the moment he looks like a 4th outfielder/platoon bat type, but he’s worth your attention in a 24-30 team league with deep minors.

Andrew Moore, RHP | Age: 22 | ETA: 2018 | 2016 Level: AA/A+

Moore is an interesting study, he’s the owner off the charts pitchability, often being described as having a cerebral approach. His control and command are double plus, but his actual stuff is just mediocre. His fastball sits 89-91, and his best offspeed pitch is a change. Whether he’ll be able to continue to play up his stuff with sequencing, and precision will remain to be seen.

Others: Dan Altavilla, Eric Filia, Braden Bishop, Boog Powell, Tony Zych

Tier 3: Long Shot Lolitas
Sexy ceilings, but these youngsters also come with risks and distant ETAs

Nick Neidert, RHP | Age: 20 | ETA: 2019 | 2016 Level: A

A pitchability righty with some upside. Neidert gets a lot of Tim Hudson comps, and it’s not far off. He possesses both advance control and command, throwing strikes 69% of the time. He mixes a low 90’s fastball, with an above average change, and a developing slider. If he’s to boost his strikeout totals in the coming years, it will be in direct relation to the development of the slider.

Joe Rizzo, 3B | Age: 18 | ETA: 2020 | 2016 Level: Rk

Short and stocky Rizzo is blessed with a sweet lefthanded stroke, and good instincts. He had an impressive rookie league debut in the AZL, slashing .291/.355/.392 with a pair of homers. He’s obviously still developing his power, but at 18 he has plenty of time to develop some pop. The term “special bat” has come up in multiple evaluations I’ve seen.

Brayan Hernandez, OF | Age: 19 | ETA: 2020 | ETA: Rk

A switch-hitting teenager with projection that flashes all 5 tools. Hernandez signed for the highest signing bonus of any Venezuelan in the 2014 international class, edging Anderson Espinoza by about $50K. In 2016 across two levels of rookie ball he showed power and speed upside, with solid bat to ball skills. He’s the best Mariners lottery ticket prospect to dream on.

Thyago Viera, RHP | Age: 23 | ETA: 2018 | 2016 Level: A+

Flame throwing righty out of Brazil, Viera showed off his triple digit heater in the AFL, hitting 100-102 consistently. After an underwhelming first few years in the states, Viera made adjustments to his mechanics, and polished his slider in extended spring training working with Class A pitching coach Ethan Katz. The results were immediate as his strikeouts jumped, walks stabilized, and his ERA dropped below 3. Looks like he has a chance to be a good pen arm.

Others: Christopher Torres, Gareth Morgan, Nick Zammerelli, Brandon Miller, Bryson Brigman, Donnie Walton

Check Out Our Minor League Preview Index for all articles and podcasts on all 30 teams!

 
  1. Miketron says:
    (link)

    How about Anuerys Zabala? Throws hard and still pretty young.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
      (link)

      @Miketron: He’s not really on my radar to be honest, but he had a solid US debut this year.

  2. Clogged Rosterman says:
    (link)

    You don’t suppose there’s a possible future where Dipoto realizes he’s been starting Jerrod Dyson everyday and gives O’Neill a mid-2017 call up?

    Also, I had a first-year dynasty draft this weekend where I wound up buying Bird, Joseph, and Bell instead of an adult first baseman. It was not the plan. How doomed am I?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
      (link)

      @Clogged Rosterman: Yes, I think we see him in July. The numbers he could put up with his power in the PCL might really push the issue. I give Dipoto credit, he gets way too much crap. The Trumbo trade was bad, but I like the direction of the organization.

      Not that doomed. How deep is the league? How good are your players at other positions?

      • Clogged Rosterman says:
        (link)

        @Ralph Lifshitz:

        I think I did ok elsewhere, with probably some ill-advised flights of fancy.

        It’s a 15-team Yahoo league. 26 active roster spots + 5 NAs, LF/CF/RF instead of OF slots, no CI/MI, 1 C, 1 Util., 1400 IP, $270 budget. 6×6 w/ OPS and QS as the extra categories.

        C- Tom Murphy (aka, Tony Wolter’s backup…), $4
        1B- Bird/Bell/Joseph, $13/$3/$3
        2B- Odor, $26
        3B- Bregman, $22 (heh… whoops)
        SS- Lindor, $26
        LF/CF- Upton, $17 (meh)
        LF/CF- Marte, $30
        RF- J.D. Martinez, $23
        LF/RF- G. Polanco, $19
        RF- Kepler, $1
        NA- Moniak, $2
        NA- F. Mejia, $2
        NA- O’Neill, $1

        SP Carrasco, $24
        SP Duffy, $11
        SP Walker, $3
        SP Pineda, $3
        SP Taillon, $11 (…)
        SP Cotton, $6 (ditto)
        RP K. Herrera, $7
        RP Ottavino, $4
        RP Iglesias, $3
        RP J. Johnson, $3
        RP Maurer, $4

        Have a few open roster spots at this point because of the NAs.

        • Ralph Lifshitz

          Ralph Lifshitz says:
          (link)

          @Clogged Rosterman: Your NA bids are awesome. Love the price on Polanco, Duffy, and Pineda. Only gross overpay I see is Bregman at $22. Upton Funk might work for you too

          • Clogged Rosterman says:
            (link)

            @Ralph Lifshitz:

            Thanks! I definitely owe you guys big for imparting your prospect knowledge.

            I worked so hard to justify the Bregman pick to myself haha. I gave him a boost on my draft sheet for dynasty value, a boost for meeting the eye test last year, a boost for likely future multi-position eligibility (he had 4 SS starts and 2 2B in two months last year–it’s hard for me to envision him not getting to the Yahoo 5 starts with Gurriel on the roster), a boost for batting in a pretty good lineup, a boost for being Jewish and less than tall (like me!)… by the time I was done, I decided I would go up to $26…

            I don’t think I did that for anyone else except maybe Rowdy Tellez because he’s so Rowdy.

            • Ralph Lifshitz

              Ralph Lifshitz says:
              (link)

              @Clogged Rosterman: Those are some good reasons!

              • Clogged Rosterman says:
                (link)

                @Ralph Lifshitz:

                Add to the above ($150 FAAB):

                Do you see anyone you’d drop for Gsellman? I’ve wanted him bad since the Mets podcast. Maybe Mejia? He doesn’t have NA eligibility yet for whatever reason (I guess because he’s on Cleveland’s 40-man?), so I’ve got a clogged roster, man.

                -Clogged Rosterman

                • Clogged Rosterman says:
                  (link)

                  @Clogged Rosterman:

                  Whoops, didn’t write my waiver claims up there, so that post had a weird opening. I won’t trouble you with them, though. (They did contain Rowdy Tellez, insofar as anything can contain him.)

                  Yahoo’s actually letting add directly to NA and DL lists this year. Progressive!

                • Ralph Lifshitz

                  Ralph Lifshitz says:
                  (link)

                  @Clogged Rosterman: Yeah if you have to, I was going to suggest Jim Johnson.

      • goodfold2 says:
        (link)

        @Ralph Lifshitz: it wasn’t just bad, can anybody name one trade worse? just one, seriously, i’ve only been following baseball really for a short enough time that i’m sure it’s possible. and i don’t mean POST HOC, i mean WHEN IT WENT DOWN. the shelby miller trade was quite stupid when it was made (worse later) but it was still arguable that somebody might’ve thought if shelby was improving it was done to at least improve ARI (not that I ever would’ve argued that really) in the shorter term. dumping trumbo for a backup minor league catcher is collusion or brain damage.

        • Ralph Lifshitz

          Ralph Lifshitz says:
          (link)

          @goodfold2: The Shelby Miller trade was much worse. Trumbo was under contract for a year. They gave up Dansby Swanson’s entire career, arbitration years for Incarte etc. Don’t forget Trumbo was bad in 2014 and 2015. He’d never had a year like he did last year. Was it a bad trade? Yes, but to think you can’t name one is absurd.

          Here’s a few

          Kimbrel trade
          Lorenzo Cain to the Royals
          Scherzer to the Tigers
          Kyle Hendricks to the Cubs
          Arrieta to the Cubs
          And about 1,000 others.

  3. Kenneth says:
    (link)

    They’ve basically handed Haniger right field. Be interested in seeing how long they leave O’Neill in AAA and which of Dyson or Haniger sees their playing time reduce after he gets the call. I thought Moore would be up for sure in the 2nd half since the organization loves him, but with all the depth ahead of him, it’s hard to say. I could see Peterson assuming Valencia’s role next season. It’s been hard to see guys like Gohara sold off, but they have still have nice pieces with some breakout potential in the lower minors.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
      (link)

      @Kenneth: I own Haniger on a few dynasty leagues so I hope that’s the case. The playing time still seems murky.

      Gohara is a nice piece, but I get why they did it. They’ve improved the team and still have plenty of solid options on the farm. They have far better organizational depth than they had years ago.

  4. Big Odio says:
    (link)

    I own both specs on the bench in a 20 teamer *high fives self*

    How long DiPoto GM of the Angels. It feels like one season. My guess is Moreno is not someone to work for in the youth movement of mlb

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
      (link)

      @Big Odio: 4 actually, and it was the Sciosciopath. They were at odds the whole time, and Arte demanded box office draws. I don’t think Dipoto every had a chance there.

      • Big Odio says:
        (link)

        @Ralph Lifshitz: ah, so he is on the hook for those bad trades that killed their minors.

        • Ralph Lifshitz

          Ralph Lifshitz says:
          (link)

          @Big Odio: They never drafted because of comp picks.

  5. barvesgonnabarve says:
    (link)

    Hey Ralph, nice list! Interesting take on O’Neill. I’m a bit worried about his Ks, and think Lewis will end up being a fair bit better.

    Where would have Gohara fit on the list? Where would he rank in your Braves list?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
      (link)

      @barvesgonnabarve: I have nothing to go on with Lewis. I trust the college numbers, the work ethic all that, but O’Neill’s been very good. He was the best full season AA player that’s not hyperbole, he improved his K rate and walk rate, everything he’s been asked to work on he has and has made improvements. I think he’s a top 25 fantasy prospect. There are those that disagree, but I’m not sure what it’s based on. It’s not like he’s Joey Gallo.

      Gohara would have been the top player in the Long Shots tier, and somewhere around there for the Braves.

      • barvesgonnabarve says:
        (link)

        @Ralph Lifshitz: Totally get it with O’Neill, he really could be awesome. For fantasy purposes, I just slightly believe more in Lewis’ ability to swipe some bags. Thanks as always for the responses!

  6. DBo says:
    (link)

    Dynasty league, Scherzer or Hendricks/Urias?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
      (link)

      @DBo: Hendricks and Urias.

  7. Swfcdan says:
    (link)

    You still in on Glasnow?

    Offered 2.8 pick and Glasnow
    For 1.10 (likely Puk or Dev Perez) and Tillman ($3)

    Tilly will be $6 to keep so werthless. So all comes down to Glasnow, im thinking its worth it as I still should get someone decent at 2.8 maybe Manningts. Thoughts oh holy prospecty bostonian?

    • Swfcdan says:
      (link)

      @Swfcdan: Thats Manning…damn smart (dumb) phone.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
      (link)

      @Swfcdan: I’d make the trade and take Glasnow.

  8. Max

    Julius says:
    (link)

    Hey ralph great post!

    Had a dynasty trade question for you.

    Was offered either mazara or meadows with the 14th pick in the draft, for tapia martes and steven matz. The draft is super deep and you can get multiole top 50 guys at pick 14. League is also super obp focused.

    What do you think of this trade as i think mazara and meadows are both way better and i dont like taking flyers that pitchers like martes develop. Also matzs arm might fall off.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
      (link)

      @Julius: I love martes, but I think you have to make the deal. Either of those bats are great (and really young), and you get a top 50 guy? win-win

      Matz arm might fall off 100%

  9. Eli Man Penguin Boy says:
    (link)

    OPS/hits and holds/QS added 16 team h2h. keep 6 the obvious are listed making
    C
    1B goldy
    2B odor
    SS segura
    3B arenado
    OF (3)
    util (1)
    SP (optimal 7 or 8, and if 8 it’s the stream spot, leaving 6 or 7 RP slots)
    -thor

    options for last keeper are k.hendricks/c.santana/pollock/upton/duvall
    my head says santana from his awesome OPS certainty, due to having steals at 1B with goldy i’m more steals strong than maybe to need pollock. but of course having zero OF speaks to keeping the other white fish. QS and position scarcity in a 16 teamer needing that many SP speaks to hendricks. we can’t trade predraft or i certainly would move the name values of hendricks and pollock. obviously in round 7 (first round after keepers) i take best pitcher if i keep a hitter as 6th keeper.

    malamoney says ditch segura keep hendricks/santana. grey says keep segura, go with one of -pollock (speed i probably don’t need esp with goldy/segura/odor already but is an OF and i have none of yet)
    – santana (OPS certainty, finally improved his fly ball rate and ct%, but of course does clog my util right away)
    – k.hendricks (got ridiculously lucky last year, but grey still has as a top 25 SP and we do need 7-8 of these, and value probably goes up in QS leagues)
    what you think?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
      (link)

      @Eli Man Penguin Boy: Its a head to head QS league? If yes you take the pitcher. Pitching wins in those leagues. That’s my personal opinion, especially if it’s daily roster moves. You need a deep staff in head to head. I’d go Hendricks and not think twice. If you swapped out Segura for Pollock or Santana that’s reasonable, but all three are close.

      • Eli Man Penguin Boy says:
        (link)

        @Ralph Lifshitz: you are first one to mention that rationale, and it makes sense. yeah, daily, h2h, QS need at least 7 SP and stream the 8th.

        • Ralph Lifshitz

          Ralph Lifshitz says:
          (link)

          @Eli Man Penguin Boy: Grey’s not really. Head to head guy. He’s a master of roto. I’ve been playing head to head like that since 2001 in the same two leagues. Pitching depth isn’t important in roto like it is in Head to Head. Don’t get me wrong you want good pitchers, but I tend to play in roto leagues with GS limits, so your staffs performance is heavily reliant on your relievers. In Head to head I carry two maybe three closers and the rest starters

          • Eli Man Penguin Boy says:
            (link)

            @Ralph Lifshitz: oh yeah, i’m in both, most of the roto’s though have very high innings caps (1700-1800) albeit with maybe 5-7 spots for RP (holds obviously). his rankings are clearly of the 5X5 roto variety, as he doesn’t even feel need to mention guys after like 126th SP most of the time, but in deep h2h those are in fact needed (16 X 8 or more, 20 X 6 or 7 etc).
            also in early draft rounds this way i won’t feel immediately pressured to just grab best SP available right away, as thor/hendricks is solid base for a 16 teamer for sure. i’m still having crazy nasty decision on pollock vs segura, i’m thinking i can get back santana anyway from ADP data thus far.

  10. Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
    (link)

    20 team h2h dynasty. 25 max keepers. OPS/BB and defensive stuff (putouts, double plays, assists, outfield assists, field %) for hitters and holds, relief wins and losses, pickoffs, double plays, complete games, shutouts, K/9, relief appearances, OBPA, QS. need at least 9 TEX players at all times. that lucroy trade really screwed me over last year, brinson no longer a TEX guy. 5 NA slots.
    clear keepers:
    C sal perez
    1B
    2B forsythe
    SS andrus
    3B beltre
    LF dahl
    CF blackmon
    RF stanton
    util o.herrera
    BN gallo/profar/choo/mazara

    SP (max 6, min 5) darvish/archer/urias/hammel/cobb/wheeler
    RP (roster spots of 7, legally those need to be filled) giles/jeffress/kela/romo

    that leaves 3 spots total up for grabs, needing 4 more RP, and if i want to keep 6 SP i’d need to remove one BN bat (it’s 5 SP/7 RP/4 BN spots). i also could keep brinson/vogelbach/a.bailey.
    – vogelbach appears to be starting only vs righties, so i’d have to play profar, now a backup again at 1B those days (unless gallo gets 1B, which would be nice).
    – brinson probably shouldn’t be dropped at all.
    – even as a.bailey is listed as 3rd from best spot at LAA he’s awful.

    issue here is that keepers are due this week, draft next week (way too damn early here, as most of these owners are by no means ready for involved trade discussions yet, this is a semi-competitive league this early). guess keep vogelbach and brinson, leaving one spot i can draft somebody, either best RP or usually i grab best prospect here (grabbed mazara last year at 6th overall, as it’s yahoo so MANY people not in it).

    probably try to trade odubel for a 1B is the answer here? or maybe a RP?

    • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
      (link)

      @Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow: also have a.bradley (currently listed as in minors), guess have to cut him or trade him before keepers are due as well?

  11. goodfold2 says:
    (link)

    what’s the spelling on
    Bryson Bergman

    i can’t find this guy to exist anywhere, and i doubt you meant christian bergman a pitcher with over 140 innings over 3 years, which is only bergman i can find on SEA.

    • goodfold2 says:
      (link)

      @goodfold2: nevermind, found him, bryson BRIGMAN

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
        (link)

        @goodfold2: Sorry Typo

        • goodfold2 says:
          (link)

          @Ralph Lifshitz: no problem, usually it’s just the first name is a bit off. gets harder when the last name is.

Comments are closed.