Fantasy Baseball Advice

Not sure how many of you knuckleheads explore this site, but in the top header under ’08 Rankings, which has the 2008 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, our Fantasy Baseball 10 Team Player Rater and our Fantasy Baseball 12 Team Player Rater. So now instead of downloading a clumsy Excel spreadsheet, you now have it all at your fingertips right onsite. Under ’08 Rankings, you also have the Best Fantasy Values for 10 team leagues and Best Fantasy Values for 12 team leagues. So what gives? Did Christmas/Chanukah/You Name It come early? You better believe it. No, the pleasure is all mine. No, mine. Mine! If you need an explanation on what the player raters are or how to use them, look here:  Fantasy Baseball Player Rater — that will send you deeper into the player rater rabbit hole and you’ll come out a week later much wiser. The comments are off on this post. Scroll down to the next post to drop some praise on Rudy, this is all his doing. (Or scroll up if you’re finding this after today — the, um, day this was posted.)

Now that I’m done recapping 2008 fantasy baseball rankings. Straight done recapping! It’s time to look at the 2008 top 20 rookie pitchers. Unlike with the top 20 rookie hitters of 2008, where I expressed a case of rookie nookie, the pitchers bring a lot more risk and I’m more hesitant to go near these guys. A rookie hitter goes 0-for-30 — oh well, drop him. A rookie pitcher goes 2 innings, giving up seven runs, and he can kill your ERA and WHIP for a week. That’s not to say I didn’t own any of these guys; I did. I’m just much more careful about them. If they’re not supplying Ks, I rarely touch them. Anyway, here’s the top 20 rookie pitchers of 2008:

20.  Nick Blackburn -  Honestly, I could’ve made this the top 14 pitchers of 2008 and you wouldn’t have lost much.  Final Numbers: 11-11/4.05/1.36/96 in 193.1 IP

19.  Scott Lewis – Only pitched 24 IP so he could make the list again in 2009. Those twenty-four innings came in 4 starts where he went… Final Numbers:  4-0/2.63/1.08/15 in 24 IP

18.  Masahide Kobayashi – I almost placed Aaron Laffey in this spot, but he was demoted after a solid April. If he had an awful April and a solid September, he might’ve made this list. Things that make you go hmm… Final Numbers:  4-5/4.53/1.42/35 in 55.2 IP

17.  Greg Smith – Out of 89 pitchers who pitched 160 innings, Greg Smith had the 89th worst run support at 2.88 runs per start.  On a contender, he could’ve been a contenda. Final Numbers:  7-16/4.16/1.35/111 in 190.1 IP

15.  Glen Perkins – 74 Ks in 151 innings? That’s a bad case of the blahs. Final Numbers:  12-4/4.41/1.47/74 in 151 IP

16.  Justin Masterson – Has the stuff/delivery for a middle man. Had the numbers of a successful middle man who had a few starts.  Final Numbers:  6-5/3.16/1.22/68 in 88.1 IP

14.  Johnny Cueto - Ah… The promise of rookie nookie and the unreliability of a roofie.  2008 might make Cueto one of the biggest fantasy bargains in 2009, but there will be plenty of time to talk about 2009.  Final Numbers:  9-14/4.81/1.41/158 in 174 IP

13.  Max Scherzer – Jobacum snowballed from a hot pickup to a minor leaguer to hot pickup.  BTW, I’m so spent on Jobacum puns I’m using snowballed.  We’ll need to have a “Please post your own Jobacum pun in the comments” post one of these days. Final Numbers:  0-4/3.05/1.23/66 in 56 IP

12.  Chris Volstad – His name sounds like he should be in a Bret Easton Ellis novel, his groundball rate was muy picante, but his K rate was muy mal. Final Numbers:  6-4/2.88/1.33/52 in 84.1 IP

11.  Clayton Kershaw – Kershaw reinforces the myth that someone with a K last name is more likely to strikeout hitters. This shizz is scientific. Final Numbers:  5-5/4.26/1.50/100 in 107.2 IP

10.  Joba Chamberlain – Somebody celebrated their top ten finish in Razzball’s top 20 rookie pitchers and went and got themselves locked up. Final Numbers:  4-3/2.60/1.26/118 in 100.1 IP

9. Jorge Campillo – For a time, Campillo filled in for Rich Hill on a bunch of my teams in 2008. But enough about me! Wait, it’s all about me, isn’t it? Final Numbers:  8-7/3.91/1.24/107 in 158.2 IP

8.  John Lannan – Not a great K rate and he’s on the Nats. What is the reason you didn’t have him on your fantasy team? Final Numbers: 9-15/3.91/1.34/117 in 182 IP

7.  Chris Perez – Save vulture says, Chris Perez is the closer. Swoop! Save vulture says, Izzy got the closing job back. Reverse swoop! Motte is the closer! I didn’t say, “Save vulture says.” Final Numbers:  3-3/3.46/1.34/42, 7 saves in 41.2 IP

6.  Joey Devine – If he gets the opportunity to be the A’s closer in 2009, I’ll be all over “Waking” Joey Devine like white on something very white, but not rice, cause that’s cliché. Final Numbers:  6-1/.59/.83/49, 1 save in 45.2 IP

5.  Hiroki Kuroda – I actually drafted this schmohawk in a ten team mixed league. Then I dropped him before the season started. Sometimes you’re the teacher, sometimes you’re the student and sometimes you’re the schmohawk. Final Numbers:  9-10/3.73/1.22/116 in 183.1 IP

4.  Jose Arrendondo – If dooode would’ve had ten more vulture wins, he would’ve had one of the best seasons ever, according to Elias Sports Bureau. Final Numbers:  10-2/1.62/1.05/55 in 61 IP

3.  Jair Jurrjens – Somehow I ended up with JJj on just about every team. Guess that’s what happens when you drafted Rich Hill and Harang in 2008. Yes, it still stings. Final Numbers:  13-10/3.68/1.37/139 in 188.1 IP

2.  Armando Galarraga -  Here’s a pitcher that I refused to believe in the entire season. His rates just were all a bit cock-eyed. So maybe I was wrong about not picking him up in 2008, but that doesn’t mean I’m going to be excited about him in 2009. Final Numbers:  13-7/3.73/1.19/126 in 178.2 IP

1.  Brad Ziegler – That he’s number one is more of an indictment on the rookie pitchers for 2008. (Edinson Volquez was not a rookie.) This is not to say Ziegler wasn’t flat-out bombilcious. Oh, he was. Whatever bombilious means. Final Numbers:  3-0/1.06/1.16/30, 11 saves in 59.2 IP

We’ve already recapped all the 2008 fantasy baseball rankings. Yo, I recapped yo’ ass! Now, a look at the rookies. Rookie nookie: 1. the desire to pickup a rookie for their upside over a reliable, but unexciting veteran. 2. Putting a chess piece where it doesn’t belong. We’re going to focus on the first definition for this post. Rookie nookie is like sex with a new partner. It’s all unknown and exciting. There’s no preconceived notions about who’s going to be on top and who’s going to refuse to bring Marshmallow Fluff into the bedroom. When you pickup these rookies, they can be anything. Mike Aviles can hit .400, Evan Longoria can hit 50 home runs, Jacoby Ellsbury can steal 100 bases. For just a moment, it’s Christmas morning, you’re eight-years-old and inside these wrapped boxes could be a 40/120/.370 hitter. Now that I’ve put my clothes on backwards and Kriss Krossed about six different metaphors, I want to say I’m a pretty big believer in rookie hitters. Usually their price tag brings very little downside and, when you’re dealing with 5th OFs, CIs or MIs, you really want to take gambles. Anyway, here’s the top 20 rookie hitters of 2008:

20. J.R. Towles – I told everyone in the preseason to avoid this schmohawk like the plague. Honestly, I didn’t even think he’d be this bad. Final Numbers:  10/4/16/.137

19.  Carlos Gonzalez – Bleech.  Final Numbers:   31/4/26/.242/4

18.  Daric Burton – See Carlos Gonzalez or 1/18 of an inch above.  Final Numbers:  59/9/47/.226/2

17.  Brandon Wood – I keep liking this guy, eventually he’s going to have to play, right? I mean, how many subpar brothers (Erick and Maicer) of already subpar players (Willy and Cesar) can one team play? Final Numbers:  12/5/13/.200/4

16.  Taylor Teagarden – There was about a two week period there were Teagarden hit a home run in every game he played. Unfortunately, the Rangers feel the need to have four Major League-ready catchers. Grey to the Rangers, “Choose one catcher and trade away the rest. You’re welcome.” Final Numbers:  10/6/17/.319

15.  Pablo Sandoval – This is a bit Jayson Stark of me to point out, but in over four hundred less at-bats than Bengie Molina, Sandoval had only 22 less runs scored. And Molina had a good year by his standards! <– Sorry for the exclamation point, but I felt it was necessary. Final Numbers:  24/3/24/.345

14.  Chris Dickerson – Dickerson’s on my short list of guys I’m watching in 2009 Spring Training. To clarify, that is not a height-challenged list. Final Numbers:  20/6/15/.304/5

13.  Chase Headley – Rudy and I were talking (we talk, ya’ll!) and I think we might make Razzball an anti-Padres hitter site. This is still in the discussion stage. Final Numbers:  34/9/38/.269/4

12. Ian Stewart – With 2nd base eligibility, you coud’ve done worse. Like any schmohawk that was playing 2nd for the Padres. Final Numbers:  33/10/41/.259/1

11.  David Murphy – Does he yawnstipate me because his name is so boring or because of his numbers?  Prolly a bit of both. (BTW, in case you haven’t noticed, I’ve fully adopted turning probably into prolly. I haven’t embraced anything this freely since Z. Cavariccis in the late ’80s.) Final Numbers:  64/15/74/.275/7

10.  Kosuke Fukudome – Didn’t like the latest import from the Far East in the preseason and that panned out. Final Numbers:  79/10/58/.257/12

9.  Denard Span – He replaced Carlos Gomez at the top of the order and showed a disciplined eye. Who is Denard Span, Alex? Final Numbers:  70/6/47/.294/18

8. Jay Bruce – When Jay Bruce was called up there was a large group of people on Razzball that thought they saw the messiah. Unfortunately, when Bruce went to walk on water, the Ks sunk him. He’s still only 21 and there’s no reason think he won’t be great. Final Numbers:  63/21/52/.254/4

7.  Mike Aviles – This year, the peasant Royals had a few gems. Aviles was one. Final Numbers:   68/10/51/.325/8

6.  Chris Davis – His average this year will be exploited in a full year’s worth of play, but he was fine in 2008. Final Numbers:  51/17/55/.285/1

5.  Joey Votto – Was the Barbara Hersey to Jay Bruce’s Bette Midler. Please, like you’ve never seen Beaches. Final Numbers:  69/24/84/.297/7

4.  Alexei Ramirez – Premenopausal Alfonso Soriano showed flashes of power rather than hot flashes. Final Numbers:  65/21/77/13/.290

3.  Jacoby Ellsbury – I almost placed Ellsbury number four and Alexei Ramirez here at number three, but 50 steals make a big difference and 9 home runs aren’t exactly Juan Pierrey. And, yes, Juan Pierrey is an adjective. Look it up! Final Numbers:  98/9/47/.280/50

2.  Geovany Soto – Usually everything the Cubs fans root for turns to crizz-ap, but not this time. Final Numbers:  66/23/86/.285

1.  Evan Longoria – The Rays didn’t Scrooge us out of Longoria as I feared in March and Longoria didn’t Alex Gordon us out of a good rookie year. Final Numbers:  67/27/85/.272/7

Last week we went over the fantasy baseball busts of 2008 and yesterday we went over 20 best draft picks for the hitters in 2008. Today, we go over the best value for their 2008 draft picks — the pitchers. The top 20 best draft picks of 2008 were figured out the same way I figured out the busts, using Rudy “Point Shares” Gamble’s fantasy baseball player rater. You’re not going to see someone such as Brandon Webb on this list, because he was drafted high and supposed to perform well. The players on this list are late round gold nuggets found between the turd nuggets. In each entry, I put the Average Draft Position (ADP) and the Minutes of Erection (MOE) metric, which I made up to illustrate how much you enjoyed owning these fantasy baseball pitchers. Anyway, here’s the 20 best draft picks of 2008, the pitchers:

20. Joe Saunders – If owning Saunders caused you to have an erection that lasted longer than forty-five seconds, you should see a doctor. ADP, 330 — MOE, 0:45

19. John Danks – Danks turned out to be a solid contributor for the back end of a fantasy staff. *laughing a la Beavis and Butthead* I said, “staff.” ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 2:57

18. Grant Balfour – I don’t want to focus too long on the math of this because that’s Rudy’s job, but, according to Point Shares, Grant Balfour gave you .47 points in the standings. To compare, Carlos Marmol, Kazmir and Jenks are a few guys who had good seasons, but gave you less value. ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 4:01

17. Jon Lester – Lester’s season was so good it forced Lance Armstrong back out of retirement. Nobody steals Lance’s cancer-surviving thunder! ADP, 274 — MOE, 6:30

16. Derek Lowe – Turned in a solid year in a contract* year. *For Dodgers, contract refers to what STD you catch from Alyssa Milano. ADP, 182 — MOE, 7:42

15. Brad Lidge – I hope he breaks Gagne’s record of consecutive saves. That’s not a joke or sarcasm. I really do. These are the things I care about. ADP, 167 — MOE, 10:27

14. Justin Duchscherer – Too bad he’s sporting a porcelain hip. ADP, 331 — MOE, 14:59

13. Kerry Wood – At the draft, you said to your friend, who’s a Cubbies fan, “You may as well put Wood directly on your DL now.” Who’s laughing now, dooode? ADP, 312– MOE, 22:00

12. Edinson Volquez – Mock Draft Central says Volquez went undrafted in 2008, but like Cueto the other day on our bust list, Edinson was drafted in all of my leagues. I told you to draft him about a dozen times in the preseason. ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 27:03

11. Mike Mussina – I didn’t pickup Mussina in any league. That’s not to say I was right, but when a 39-year-old dude declines for five years then picks it up suddenly, I don’t buy into it. ADP, 332 — MOE, 9:20

10. Joakim Soria – Is it JO-akim? JOKE-im? Why doesn’t ESPN have his last name’s pronunciation on his player card? It’s like 1776 up in this piece with no love for the Royals. ADP, 158 — MOE, 29:47

9. Ricky Nolasco – My twelve-year-old cousin texted me this, “GNBLFY, but thought U were crackaz when U told me 2 pick up Nolasco. Thx. BTW, U C RR/RW? Bananas is in trouble! L8r.” NP. ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 33:51

8. CC Sabathia – In April, it seemed like Sabathia was going to weigh down your team, then he ended up anchoring it. (<– Play on words, boyz!) ADP, 53 — MOE, 37:50

7. Mariano Rivera – I’ve mentioned this before, but I don’t think I ever got my answer. Why does every other closer generally go by his last name and Rivera goes by Mariano? Out of respect? Maybe, but people didn’t call Eck, “Dennis.” Someone post the answer in the comments. Thanks! ADP, 101 — MOE, 44:27

6. Ervin Santana – Of course there’s a Santana on this list. Ervin? Zoinks! ADP, 330 — MOE, 44:30

5. Ryan Dempster – Coming off back-to-back lackluster seasons as a closer, he’s lights out as a starter. When I say, “No rhyme…” You say, “No reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” ADP, 331 — MOE, 44:41

4. Rich Harden – Harden gave the value of someone drafted 2nd round. Now, if you did draft him in 2nd round, the reactions at the draft would’ve been split between committing you to a psych ward and banning you from the league, but imagine the end of the year reactions. Your leaguemates would be searching your room for Biff Tanner’s sports book. (BTW, am I the only one who thinks about time travel at least once a day? I am? Okay, moving on…) ADP, 210 — MOE, 53:15

3. Roy Halladay – According to Point Shares, Halladay gave you more than a 10 point swing in the standings. So if you won with 70 points carrying Halladay, you would’ve only had 60 with the average pitcher off waivers. ADP, 98 — MOE, 59:01

2. Tim Lincecum – 265 Ks in 227 innings. Mmm…. That’s like looking at a young Suzanne Somers. (BTW, and sorry to freak you out like this, but Suzanne Somers is 62 years old. That’s a GILF.) ADP, 119 — MOE, 59:50

1. Cliff Lee – Your leaguemate, “Of course you won. You had Cliff-freakin-Lee!” Yup, that’s what Cliff Lee did to people this year. ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 59:59

Last week we went over the fantasy baseball busts of 2008. Now we’ll look at the guys that gave you the best value for their draft picks — the hitters edition. I figured out the top twenty best draft picks of 2008 the same way I figured out the busts, using our fantasy baseball player rater. Dur. Now when it came to the busts, it was a bit harder to figure out because some guys were injury busts — cough V-Mart cough — but all of the best draft picks (or undrafted pickups) played and played well this year, which made it easier to figure out the best value picks. So yay for me. In each entry, I put the Average Draft Position (ADP) and the Minutes of Erection (MOE) metric, which I made up to illustrate how much you enjoyed owning these fantasy baseball hitters. Anyway, here’s the 20 best draft picks of 2008, the hitters:

20. Stephen Drew – I think I’ve mentioned this before, but I’m too lazy to look it up in the side search bar. JD Drew is injury-prone as all get-out and he always seems overvalued. While his brother is going to be better than him at a better position and he seems to go unnoticed. Weird! ADP, 227 — MOE, 2:08

19. Jason Bay – I don’t like him, which doesn’t mean you can’t like him. You can, if you wanna be argumentative. ADP, 87 — MOE, 4:40

18. Carlos Delgado – Eeny, meany, miney, moe…. Which aging 1st baseman will I take…. Konerko! D’oh! ADP, 136 — MOE, 7:35

17. Manny Ramirez – Manny does whatever it is that Manny wants to do when Manny’s being Manny. If you had this year, you got the great Manny. ADP, 37 — MOE, 12:10

16. Melvin Mora – Mora was good this year. I still don’t like him. As distant cousin, Jim Mora, would say, “Diddly Poo!” ADP, 333 — MOE, 10:22

15. Milton Bradley – Milton Bradley’s your neighbor and his dog repeatedly craps on your lawn. Do you A) Say something. B) Move. C) Threaten him and watch as he injures himself running at you. ADP, 325 — MOE, 14:49

14. Jose Lopez – Fourteenth? Really? Hmm… I guess he had a good season and I did tell you to pick him up the first week of the 2008 season. But still, 14th? Wait, I’m supposed to be celebrating these guys. Jose Lopez? Woo-hoo! (<–Actually halfway through that “woo-hoo,” I was thinking about free tacos at Taco Bell.) ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 3:50

13. Andre Ethier – Once The Pierre Situation™ became The Juan No More Situation™, Ethier did his thing. As the kids say, Ethier was da bomb diggity in the final months. ADP, 332 — MOE, 16:17

12. Ryan Doumit – You lost Victor Martinez and you gained Doumit.  Small whoop? Maybe. Medium-sized whoop? Possibly. No big whoop. ADP, 305 — MOE, 20:04

11. Jhonny Peralta – See, Khalil, that’s how someone with a weirdly-placed, silent H performs. ADP, 173 — MOE, 25:42

10. Jorge Cantu – I can attest to the MOE for Cantu. Cantu said to me, “Hey, Grey, why so down?” “Pronk left a stank on my team.” Cantu, “Aw, geez… That’s not nice of him. Maybe you should just pick me up.” “Thanks, man! Oh, and Cantu, could you take your hand off my shoulder?” ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 25:40

9. Xavier Nady – Dooode! You know he was sitting on your waivers into May and you never grabbed. You know it! How do I know? I was right there with you. ADP, 309 — MOE, 34:00

8. Mark DeRosa – You in the comments, “Okay, should I drop DeRosa or Ian Snell?” Me, “Snell.” You, “Okay, I think I’ll hold onto Snell. Thanks, Grey!” ADP, 331 — MOE, 35:10

7. Kevin Youkilis – I think Youuuuuk’s actually going to show more power in 2009. As I said in the preseason, does he look like a guy that can’t hit 30 home runs? No, I don’t think so either. ADP, 171 — MOE, 41:20

6. Carlos Quentin – Probably would be at the top of this list if he didn’t have an altercation with his bat at the end of the season. ADP, Undrafted, MOE, 48:59

5. Aubrey Huff – Eh, I probably told you to ignore Huff. My bad, but he’s like a poor man’s Mike Lowell. One year, he hits 30 home runs, next year he hits 12 home runs and is injured for half the year. When I say, “No rhyme…” You say, “No reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” Nice.  ADP, 329 — MOE, 49:01

4. Nate McLouth – You thought you were the cat’s pajamas when you drafted this guy, didn’t you? You did! ADP, 272 — MOE, 54:12

3. Josh Hamilton – To think in four years, Hamilton went from hanging out with crackheads to hanging out with Milton Bradley. Some would argue he was safer with the crackheads. ADP, 151 — MOE, 57:56

2. Dustin Pedroia – Poppa Pedroia, “You’re only four feet tall, Dusty! You cannot play baseball! You have to run the pizzeria!” Dustin, “I must Poppa! It’s my dream!” ADP, 177 — MOE 57:59

1. Ryan Ludwick – Well, there you have. The number one most valuable guy was a 30-year-old Minor League journeyman. What’s right is wrong and what’s wrong is right. Don’t try and figure it out, you’ll hurt your medulla oblongata. ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 59:19