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Hey, hey,  hey, talking relievers on Thursday.  What could be better? Well, maybe ice cream covered in Kate Upton.  Actually strike that and flip it.  That sounds better.  OR exactly the same.  Regardless, the top ‘pens are starting to take shape as we reach the 1/5 part of the season.  The who’s are the who’s and the what the eff’s are, well, what the eff’s.  The MLB average for bullpen ERA is 3.92.  Now, that isn’t exactly something that makes you have confidence in any teams collective bullpens.   That’s why you get to be selective… take who you want and disregard the rest.  It’s like the Chinese buffet down the street– not everything looks edible, and yeah, you will probably get sick from most of it, but there’s some value savings.  Always go with the soup, excellent starter, can’t go wrong with that option.  So, take a look at bullpen arms that are doing these three things: Save situations, games with the lead, and total batters faced (and the percentage of K’s from that).  You have those three things, you have a stout middle reliever.  Yeah, I hear ya dude in the corner with his hand raised, there are other stats that we should look at.  Everyone looks at them, every site pounds you on the simple stats.  Dig deeper, look past the first page of stats and do something different.  Sorry… I was yelling. I get mad when I am hungry.  Food for me, continue reading and comments for you.

 

  • Lots of good options in the San Fran pen to help buoy your rates.  They are second in bullpen ERA with 1.88, lowest BAA against at .198.  Most wins in relief, half of which are by Jean Machi with 5.  Add in the return of Jeremy Affeldt from injury, and they have a legitimate 7-8-9th inning triumvirate.
  • I mentioned him a couple posts ago, and he’s only getting better– Will Smith is basically K’ing 60% of the batters he has faced over the past two weeks (11 out of 18).   I didn’t just make that stat up.  For the year, he is at 38% and is on pace for 105 K’s in 70 plus innings.  If you need more incentive for a roster spot, he is holding opponents to a lean .143 BAA.
  • I am noticing more and more that Joba Chamberlain has got the 8th inning now in Detroit. He has six consecutive 8th inning appearances resulting in 4 holds, as compared to Al-Al’s one.  He could be a nice sleeper from here on out, as the Tigers are going to get wins with there stout pitching, so keep tabs.
  • I like when a good bullpen manager gets a new pet. Uncle Buck likes him some Zach Britton lately, and he is a player to monitor, much like Shaba Chamberlain above. Britton has three Holds in May already. Me thinks he may have found his niche as a converted SP.  I know some of you jump on the SP/RP dual eligibility.  Mick said it best, ‘what are we waitin for’.

 

Player Holds/BS Appearances with Lead In. Runners/IR Scored
Will Smith  8/1 12 12/1
Brett Cecil 8/1 12 11/1
Kevin Siegrist 8/0 10  7/2
 Charlie Furbush 8/0 9 13/4
Tyler Clippard  7/2  9  0/0
Steve Delabar 7/0  9  7/1
 Carlos Martinez 7/2 11 8/0
 Adam Ottavino  7/1 12 4/2
Cody Allen  7/0 10 10/1
J.P. Howell  7/0  11  9/1
Yoervis Medina  7/1  9  6/1
Matt Thornton  7/0  8 14/3
David Carpenter  6/1  8  5/2
Alexei Ogando  6/1 9 12/4
Chris Perez  6/1  10  12/1
Zach Britton  6/0  7 6/1
Sean Doolittle  5/1  8 4/0
Santiago Casilla  5/3  12 6/1
 Joba Chamberlain 5/0  9 3/0

 

 

 

From Around The Web

  1. Osnam says:
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    What are your thoughts on wade davis? He’s a k machine.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Osnam: I like him just doesn’t get the counting hold stat. But terrific numbers even for non holds leagues

  2. Tom says:
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    I know it’s a closer question but I’m desperate for an opinion…drop Melancon for Janssen? I’m not sure how much longer CJ will be on the wire. I don’t know how to measure Melancon’s risk vs Janssen’s risk.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Tom: I don’t trust janssen I would still roster melancon based on his still usable stats minus saves when Grilli returns

  3. ashtray says:
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    I get the feeling that Kate Upton is not the type of girl that will age well. Just like Verlander.

    • Dave says:
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      She would still look great by the time she’d grown tired of me

      • Beastman says:
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        @Dave: HA! Perfect answer.

  4. Zar says:
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    Is Machi ownable over the players in your list?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Zar: he is just a win vulture right now. His games pitched when team has the lead is 3 rd on the team behind Affeldt and Casilla.

  5. Ferga says:
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    I think I’m bailing in Peralta. He’s 38 getting hit hard and his velocity is down. What do you think of Neshak as a replacement? Or I could check to see I’d Joba is available.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Ferga: love Neshek and he has found a new home in Stl. I like joba slightly better though.

  6. beardawg says:
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    would you drop Salas for Britton?

  7. Cold Never Bother Sonny Gray says:
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    Yes the long awaited bulletin report! Thanks and great job! My league counts S+H and my relievers are C Allen, S Kelley, D Carpenter, and C Martinez… should I drop any of them for a better FA? Who to add/drop?

    FA available include: W Smith, Siegrist, Clippard, Cecil, Joba, Ottavino, Brothers, Benoit

    Also which of these SP eligible holds options do you like best? It would be a huge advantage to get holds from a SP slot. W Davis, Z Britton, Ogando, Daiske, C Torres

    Thanks Smokey

  8. CL says:
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    Revewing my pen here… Dynasty, holds count. Janssen is my only keep left (we keep entire team).

    Janssen (DL)
    Broxton
    Lindstrom
    Perez
    Walden
    Siegrest
    Joe Smith

    I’ve had my eye on Joba, and almost picked him up several times, over the course of the last few weeks but just haven’t been able to pull the trigger for some reason. Think he’s worth it over any of my current guys? Also, Machi too?

    • CL says:
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      @CL: Betances comes off waivers in a couple of days too… his K-rate is pretty hard to ignore. Farquhar comes off waivers tomorrow.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @CL: hold. Don’t see a drop worse then joba

  9. Homerj24 says:
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    We count H+SV. I have Rondon, Farquhar, Benoit, Frieri. Would you drop any of them for the following? This would most likely be until Paxton returns from the DL.

    Cecil
    Siegrist
    Furbush
    Clippard
    Brothers
    Allen
    Martinez, C.
    Smith, J.
    Ottavino
    Joba
    Ogando

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Homerj24: Farquhar isn’t doing much for holds is want Allen or siegrist ahead of him.

  10. Scooter G says:
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    Do you ever do rankings of RP pitchers for s+h leagues? That would be THE BEST!

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Scooter G: I don’t ever really do it because holds guys fluctuate from 2week span to 2 week span. I try and update who is hot and been getting looks but if you need a guy or rank guys drop a comment with a few names and I’ll do my best to give you my opine.

  11. MB says:
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    How do you rank these 4 RP for holds + #s?

    Mcgee, Doolittle, Watson, Walden

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @MB: McGee Doolittle walden Watson

  12. Alex says:
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    Would you pick up guys who have not got holds hoping they get back to the mean? Or just skills? or guys WITH holds so far?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Alex: sure as long as they are pitching good in good situations and the team is on a sorta wining street. Could just be dumb luck that he has evaded the hold stat.

  13. Scooter G says:
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    Could you please rank these 6 in a S+H league?

    S Kelley, C_mart, Siegrist, Carpenter, Clippard, W Smith

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Scooter G: siegrist smith Martinez clippard Kelley carpenter

  14. tank1 says:
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    Right now I have Carpenter and Machi for MR. Would you drop either for any of the following if my goal was holds and ratio help? Thanks.

    Cecil, Delabar, Ottavino, Chamberlain, Ziegler, Casilla, Withrow, Tazawa, McGee

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @tank1: Machi is just a lucky MF’er with the wins, I like Delabar for his K potential

  15. The Fantasy Dick says:
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    Dice-K gonna be closing this season? Is Mejia a sleeper for saves now that he may go to the bullpen? Any other potential closers in Mets bullpen? I really need a 2nd saves guy in NL only keeper (I have Cishek)
    AJ Ramos closing games in Miami next season? (I have him for a buck in a NL only keeper. I also have Cishek, but losing him to free agency after this year). Is Ramos worth hanging on to?

    Thanks!

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @The Fantasy Dick: Ramos has the look, but don’t know if has the role next year. Mets best closing options are all in the minors. Black, Leathersich

  16. Spyre says:
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    h2h points league with holds

    Would you drop any of the clunkers below for britton?

    Skaggs, Liriano, Archer, Stroman, C.Martinez, Pineda

    Also grant balfour has been a dead weight, is he a must own?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Spyre: Balfour is or should be owned, still a closer stat wise he is shite. Id hold on Britton until something else happens with Skaggs or Stroman

  17. Will says:
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    Siegrist, will smith, clippard, farnsworth, betances

    I know farnsworth gets saves, but is it worth the other number I would miss out on?

    Pick 3 of the 5 above

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Will: First 3, siegrist Will and Ty Clip

  18. Kyle H says:
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    In a saves plus hold league with K’s and K:BB, would you hold onto frieri or grab a guy like siegrist or ottavino or delbar? I have clippard, rosenthal, and smith too.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Kyle H: frieri is still getting k’s so I would hold him for now until de la rosa comes back and really see how the angels pen shapes up

  19. goodfold2 says:
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    already asked Grey and he told me to hold currently. in 20 team H2H keep forever league i have these as my bullpen. Melancon/soria (great here), cotts/kelley/m.adams (fine here), and then the ugh… santos/ogando. also have feliz (NA) and scheppers (DL). cats are holds/k per 9/ RW. free agents include:qualls/thielbar/varvaro (this dude seems to be watchable for the future)/wright (CUBS)/choate/tonkin/duffy (only if he goes back to bullpen though)/salas/outman/capps (seems useful if he can move up MIA ranks). the guys i’m wondering about dropping of course are only santos/ogando.

  20. Greyismyhero says:
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    Net saves and hold league, currently rolling with Soria, Rondon, J. Smith, Melancon, and Balfour…….would you drop any for these on wire? I was leaning dropping Rondon for Siegrest. Thanks

    Siegrest
    Furbush
    JP Howell
    Delabar
    Chaba

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Greyismyhero: yea I would he projects to get more nsvh than Romdon.

  21. Ghost of the Disappeared says:
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    Smoke: I’m having my very own personnel Closer-ageddon this season . From Henderson to Santos to Frieri and host of others, my once mighty closer corp has been all but reduced to a pile of stinky poopoo – with the exception of the Twinkie of Steel, Perkins.

    Earlier when I was feeling cocky, I traded away DLed Robinson for a slumping Hosmer (who took off immediately – one of my few bright spots) – But now, I wish, I had Robinson back – Waaahh waahhh waahhh.

    ( Ghost stops to blow nose and dries tears)

    OK: I have am at a loss about what is going to happen in Halo-land. Had the foresight to acquire to Smith when Frieri was starting to launch more rockets than Vadenburg. Then Smith gets a pain in his side ( giving me a pain in my you know where). I have now picked up Koln to go along with Frieri and Smith – not wanting to miss out on who is going to emerge as the Closer there

    My question is With Frieri as the man they want in there in a perfect world – given De La Rosa’s toasted shoulder. And they view Smith as more of a the perfect situation guy for them = Where do you see the Koln in the picture? He would seem the logical fella to go with given his success of late.

    My roster is tied up with Smith being down DTD and protecting all with Koln. I will not cut Frieri (he will return IMO)

    HELP ME SMOKY!!!!

    And please don’t say, DRIZZLE, DRAZZLE, DROZZLE, DRONE. TIME FOR THIS ONE TO COME HOME? Like, I’m just some Tudor Turtle or other

    I have settled on Qualls for now in Texas as their best option ( that’s just how desperate I have become) – Have the chronically injured and re-injured Crain DLed backing him up. Cannot find anything on Crain’s progress since his elbow began bothering him too. Any info on him?

    Just picked up Farquhar for a spot save chance – Should I keep him?

    HELP ME SMOKY!!!! You see, I’ve just got to beat Mr Wrong this year. What else is there in life for me other than that?

    PS: I won’t bother you with my under performing & injured supposedly star studded hitting lineup.

    Waahhh Waahh Wwwaaaahhhhhhhh

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Ghost of the Disappeared: Kohn has been the beneficiary of perfect timing mixed with good stuff, I am not counting out Frieri here because of the managers affliction to loyalty. DLR is the next option there when he gets back, Smith is the situational guy when you need an out.

      Danny Fah-q is puzzling has great stats and he might be in the mix for today because of Rodney’s use.

      Hope this helps, if not follow up. I have adhd and your post was way long

      ….one love
      _Smoke

  22. Odogg says:
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    A little late to the party here…

    I’m in an AL-only 4×4 league. Do you think C. Janssen keeps the job in TOR? What’s up with Frieri. Does Kohn or DeLaRosa take over at some point?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Odogg: Not sleeping on DLR, just needs to get some innnings. Janssen might not get the first one back but he will and should get the next 5

  23. Clint says:
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    What’s your take on the Alex Wood situation, Smokey? Think he’s really going to the bullpen and if so, does he have any value to keep over a true blue closer or holds guy? I’m in an 8 team h2h pts league that includes holds & saves where I was depending on him as a starter but if not there are a lot of good closers available (Grilli, C. Janssen, Frieri, F-Rod, Axford, Hawkins) as well as some of the holds guys you mention above (8 of the top 10 above minus Will Smith/Cody Allen).

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Clint: I think the Braves know what they are doing with there endless cultivatioon of starting pitchers to bullpen guys. I am not saying this is the right mpve at all but Wood has the goods to be a 3-4th starter. K-Rod has to be owned regardless if you are in a league by urself playing against imaginary dragons.

  24. Blue Crew says:
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    I am in a holds + saves league, Machi, Britton, and Will Smith all available… would you consider dropping Balfour?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Blue Crew: I tend to give the nod to closers, only because there is usually only one on a team garnering the save. Holds multiple guys fighting for appearances in the lead. It’s Balfour by a hair over Will.

  25. Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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    if only have space for 4 closers in 10 teamer to grab steals only guy who is the drop (not K-Rod or Soria), but one of Axford/Melancon/Frieri? Lindstrom has been free agent in this league all year. also anybody on HOU. One owner freaked out and traded Cashner for F-Rod str up. I thought Allen would have this job by now to make this decision for me. And then when Melancon goes back to 8th with Grilli back i would just grab Lindstrom. Just saves here no fancy stats, nor even holds.

      • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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        @Smokey: but saves being the biggest of those stats, you think melancon ends season with job longer than axford and frieri? In deep leagues or holds leagues i paid a bit or traded for melancon since i know his stats are better. but unless grilli fails or gets hurt again i wasn’t sure holding him was best bet (as pure saves speculation).This is of course tempered by the fact that i could simply grab lindstrom, who probably isn’t much worse than axford when they both are at their bests, but frieri is both good to great and then quite terrible (depending on when you’re talking about him). Just checking if you meant Frieri is the drop due to him being least likely to end season with most saves of those 3.

  26. Plumbing4 says:
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    I have 0 true closers unless you consider joe Smith still the closer in LA. I have beefed up with Will Smitj, Siegrist, and Clippard to try to help elsewhere. Can I wait until the next closer gets injured or loses his job? Or do I need to actively pursue a trade?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Plumbing4: I always like to have one. Try and get one but don’t overpay

  27. Jonas says:
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    Great listen on the radio podcast. Speaking of which, time to pick up Michael Kohn and hold to speculate?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Jonas: Depending on league size maybe, but he is pitching well enough for his numbers to speak for themselves and maybe that gets him some notice with Scosh

  28. Montezuma's Revenge... right now says:
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    walden to DL. add one of these in holds/RW/net saves:
    barrett/morris/varvaro/schilitter (terrible K’s)/guetierrez/capps/choate/dunn/n.ramirez (listed as head set up man at CUBS, i think it’s him)?
    2. 12 teamer (just holds and net saves here, no RW): cecil/delabar/frasor (moving into 8th)/j.smith/w.davis/ramos?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Montezuma’s Revenge… right now: I would use it to stream a rp don’t just use one guy, Start with Dunn, and then the day he pitches move to another guy on the list, then repeat again and go back to Dunn again.

      Davis has the best numbers other than Holds, I would prolly go with Cecil or Frasor, but play the hot hand on hot team.

      • Montezuma's Revenge... right now says:
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        @Smokey: i only have 85 (which is a lot, but those could go away quick if i dropped somebody nearly daily) out of 100 pickups left. what about the idea of grabbing varvaro since he’ll be 7th inning guy now? also bastardo has been terrible last 3 starts, could replace him with one of those guys, esp since diekman has like a 14.68 k rate (pretty sick right there)

  29. Smalls Killer says:
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    The axman got the ax in Cleveland. Who is the best pick up for saves. I know they are saying committee but who had a chance. I have meloncon (Grilli) & Rondon, I’m gonna need someone… hoping I can scoop the guy you will run away with it.

    Also, unrelated; Will we see Pestano again he used to be a fav of mine them he went and had his meltdown last year. Our did he miss his chance?

  30. Smalls Killer says:
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    The axman got the ax in Cleveland. Who is the best pick up for saves. I know they are saying committee but who had a chance. I have meloncon (Grilli) & Rondon, I’m gonna need someone… hoping I can scoop the guy you will run away with it.

    Also, unrelated; Will we see Pestano again he used to be a fav of mine them he went and had his meltdown last year. Our did he miss his chance?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Smalls Killer: As an observer it has to be Allen, with a sprinkle of Shaw. Pestano is a forgotten man there unfortunately

  31. Moscowitz says:
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    I play in a holds and saves league and to me the walk rate of a RP is very important. You walk people and you will early or sooner get hit and give up runs and that will ruin your ratios. I also look if they have FB tendencies and of course if they can miss bats.

    For holds league and from ratio standpoint, he complete package regarding all those numbers and stats have been Tony Watson and Joba Chamberlain. These guys strike people out, barely walk anyone and they are no fly ball pitchers. As example Carpenter is a FB pitcher although with a good walk rate. Same goes out to Siegrist. A lot of people are fond of Will Smith and Clippard. They both strike people out but Smith walks 5.28 per 9 innings and Clippard 6.0. Thats not gonna cut it for long. They will implode sooner or later. Melancon is a control master but he doesnt have the K potential.

    As said, the complete package is offered by Tony Watson and Joba Chamberlain right now.

    • Montezuma's Revenge... right now says:
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      @Moscowitz: clippard’s career K numbers are much better than that though. I agree he hasn’t been that great this year though. wil smith was great with the K’s last year too.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Moscowitz: I do like Watson who has been getting alot of good run with Grilli on the DL, but when he returns how many opps will there be. He does have some nice rates though.

  32. Todd says:
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    I am in need of some serious Closer help right now. My league gives a bonus to Saves, K’s, ERA, and WHIP.

    My closer right now are: Huston Street, John Axford, Jonathan Broxton.

    Axford just got demoted in Cleveland and I didn’t prepare for Cincinnati’s switch in closer when Chapman came back. Here are some others in my league available and who should I have on my roster right now?

    Ernesto Frieri, Tony Watson, Joba Chamberlain, Will Smith, Joe Smith, Mark Melancon, Hector Rondon, Michael Kohn, and others.

    • Moscowitz says:
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      @Todd:

      There are only 3 closers on that list and even they are no sure things.

      Frieri, Melancon, Rondon

      Frieri will always be threatened by Joe Smith, Melancon will have to make room for Grilli and Rondon is not a safe bet for keeping the job long term either…

      Watson and Chamberlain are pitching great in relief but they are a tad too far from closing duties so far.

      • goodfold2 says:
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        @Moscowitz: agree with everything moscowitz says, but rondon has been much better than anyone other than n.ramirez, and i would think would have more ROS value (other than CUBS maybe not having that many save opps in the first place.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Todd: Melancon for now and Rondon for later would be my adds

      • Todd says:
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        @Smokey:
        Thank you all so much…..now just hoping I get more than 1 save a week from these guys!

  33. goodfold2 says:
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    santos to DL, in keep forever league where i had been benching him, drop him or scheppers? this almost has to be scheppers, right?

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