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FTBOTR is For The Back Of The Room, that’s who this post is for.  Our 2009 fantasy baseball projections have been posted.  These 2009 fantasy baseball projections are not quite like every other site’s fantasy projections.  Ours come in the form of Point Shares. This is a very basic system to understand, this is our Player Rater.  Let’s look at David Wright, who comes in first on the 10-team 2009 projections list.  David Wright will give you 5.49 Points in your ten team league over the average third baseman.  So if you have Kevin Youkilis (.05 Point Shares) at 3rd and you trade him for David Wright, you’ve essentially gained a bit more than 5 points in the standings.  That’s not too hard to understand, right?

These specific 2009 fantasy baseball projections use Marcel’s stat projections from the site TangoTiger.net.  Rudy uses these projections because they are free. He will also be putting together 2009 projections for Point Shares using a few other free services. Then he will do one cumulative Point Shares spreadsheet using all the projections systems.  If you run a site and would like Rudy to use your projections, I’m sure there’s some way we can work this out.  Finally, a bit of good news for those in auction leagues.  Rudy added dollar amounts to the Point Shares spreadsheet, so go check it out.  For those who want projections in the form of stats and not Point Shares, I will personally be going over every single worthwhile player in my annual top twenty posts in January and giving you some of my own 2009 fantasy baseball projections.  Stay tuned for those.  In the meantime, have a great holiday and hopefully whereever you are the Heat Miser and the Snow Miser are on speaking terms.

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  1. Steve says:
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    @Grey & Rudy: Thanks for all the fantastic info, advice and entertainment. Compliments of the season to you guys and all the Razzball readers. Have a safe and happy one.

  2. going through the list…it is abviously not a “draft in this order” sheet…but, is Longoria really projected that low or do you see him building on his rookie year with a full season and becoming a top 5ish 3B? (I met his cousin last night so he is freah on the mind)

  3. going through the list…it is abviously not a “draft in this order” sheet…but, is Longoria really projected that low or do you see him building on his rookie year with a full season and becoming a top 5ish 3B? (I met his cousin last night so he is fresh on the mind)

  4. going through the list…it is obviously not a “draft in this order” sheet…but, is Longoria really projected that low or do you see him building on his rookie year with a full season and becoming a top 5ish 3B? (I met his cousin last night so he is fresh on the mind)

  5. really?!?! three posts…sorry! my browser said “Done” and never redirected to another page

  6. Jared says:
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    why do you think that pitchers are more valuable in 12-team leagues? there are much more hitters at the top of the rankings in the 10-team league projections.

  7. @Steve: Back at ya, Steve!

    @danimal35: Re: Longoria, this is because the Marcel projection system doesn’t factor in playing time. It projects ABs based on past years and has Longoria @ 400 AB b/c he didn’t play a full year in 2007. When we create the official Razzball Point Shares (mid/late Feb ETA), we’ll adjust the contributing Marcel stats to better represent expected playing time.

    @Jared: Hey Jared. Welcome to the Razzball comment section. The Point Shares are completely objective and just translate the provided stats into what is estimated to be the points per category that this player would improve the average team with the average player.

    It’s a good question, though. Why are pitchers more valuable in 12 team than 10 team? The reason is that the addition of 10-11 more pitchers into the rostered pool has a bigger effect on the value of pitchers than the addition of 2-3 more hitters per position. I suppose it mirrors MLB during expansion years – offense goes up b/c pitching gets spread too soon and pitching affects hitting more than hitting affects pitching.

    As for why, in general, pitchers rank high in Point shares, there’s a succinct explanation here: http://razzball.com/razzball-2008-player-rater/. As for draft strategy, here’s my take on drafting starting pitching: http://razzball.com/groaning-at-bad-punditry-%E2%80%93-drafting-starting-pitchers-in-the-first-3-rounds/

  8. sean says:
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    Any advice in older posts that I can read to get the most out of incorporating the point share rankings into my draft strategy? I would think it’s more useful in the opening rounds to pick out the fantasy studs from the big names instead of the mid/late rounds when there are hundreds of players with roughly the same value.

    @Rudy: bravo on the piece about starting pitching. For me, its just hard to shake the feeling on draft day that I am chasing if I select a SP in the first two rounds, even if it’s Johan.

  9. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Happy holidays to you too, Steve.

    @sean: I think you should wait for Rudy on that one.

  10. @sean: Drafting is a mix of a number of things. The two main components in my eyes are determining a ranked order of the players available and determining how your other drafters value players so you can get the best value out of each pick.

    Everyone leans on player projections to determine their pre-draft rankings. But it’s difficult to determine the relative value of each stat (e.g., what’ s more valuable: a 30 HR – 10 SB guy or a 15 HR – 50 SB guy?) and values among positions (e.g., what’s more valuable: a 20 HR shortstop or a 30 HR 1st baseman?).

    The Point Shares do that work for you. It takes each stat and converts it into one relevant metric (points in the team standings). Positions are factored in – a SS and 3B with comparable stats will have different values.

    The #1 reason why I wouldn’t draft CC Sabathia with my 1st pick has nothing to do with player value – it has to do with the fact that I can get one of the top 5 pitchers in the 3rd round b/c that’s how everyone drafts.

    On a side note that I’ll expound on as we get closer to the draft, I don’t feel there’s a standout SP out there worth a top 5 pick. Last year, I thought Santana, Peavy, and Webb were worthy of top 10 picks and was 2/3 right (only Peavy’s injury and unfairly low wins kept it from being 3 for 3). There have been years where Pedro and Randy Johnson should have been the first two picks (check their old stats – 300Ks and Sub 1.00 WHIP during above-average offensive years). With Santana’s creeping WHIP, I just don’t see a slam dunk pitcher that I’d grab in the 1st round vs. risk trying to snap up with my 2nd or 3rd round pick…

  11. sean says:
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    @rudy: appreciate your thoughts. I’m always looking to learn more.

  12. Denys says:
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    Holla back I’m here again.

    Fantasy football season over and now I can focus on baseball again. Whoopeeteedooooo! Guess just saying hello and informing everyone I’ll be around more and more over the next few months…

    …so what did I miss??

  13. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Denys: What’s up, man? Good to see you again. Welcome back. Matt Holliday is on the A’s, Tex is on the Yanks and Cesar Izturis is on the O’s. Holla.

  14. Denys says:
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    @Grey: ha ha ha. Izturis!

    we suck again!

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