After a needed two-week break from life, I’m back and ready to go with another edition of Top Dynasty Keepers.
Let’s be honest, at this point of the season the actual TOP dynasty keepers are long gone. They were gobbled up in fantasy drafts or auctions at the start of this season or last year or the year before that depending on your dynasty league. If a top prospect was still out there this season, they have likely now been snagged off the waiver wire.
But that doesn’t mean there still aren’t good players to go after – you just have to be a little more discerning and probably have to dig a little deeper into the mud to pull out a few gems here and there. But that is the fun part of dynasty leagues, finding those players who may or not help you this year but become key players over the next two or three years.
Tiger Buddies
Two players who I think can both help you this year and beyond are a pair of Tiger hurlers who have had their careers slightly derailed due to injuries. Those two pitchers are 25-year-old Matt Manning and 26-year-old Tarik Skubal.
Manning, a former first round draft pick (N0. 9 overall in 2016) and a former Top 100 prospect, has battled through injuries the past few seasons, including a broken bone in his right foot this season.
The injury this season has limited Manning to only five starts and since making his debut with the Tigers in 2021 he has thrown only 183 innings – or one full season of work.
Like Manning, Skubal is a former Top 100 prospect, reaching as high as No. 20 by Baseball America in 2021. After appearing in eight games in 2020, Skubal pitched a full season in 2021, making 29 starts and racking up 149.1 innings.
Last season was the best of Skubal’s short career, posting a 3.52 ERA through his first 21 starts. But he had to undergo flexor tendon surgery last August and made his return to the mound July 4.
Undervalued
Right now, both pitchers are relatively easy to add to your team. Manning is rostered in only 21% of Yahoo leagues and 9% of ESPN leagues.
Meanwhile, fantasy owners are more on board with Skubal as he is owned in 49% of Yahoo leagues and 21% of ESPN leagues.
I think both of those numbers are low for each player, so let’s dive in and take a look at Manning and Skubal.
Matt Manning
| YEAR | TEAM | W-L | GS | IP | ERA | WHIP | ERA+ | BB/9 | K/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Det | 4-7 | 18 | 85.1 | 5.80 | 1.512 | 73 | 3.5 | 6.0 |
| 2022 | Det | 2-3 | 12 | 63.0 | 3.43 | 1.175 | 113 | 2.7 | 6.9 |
| 2023 | Det | 3-1 | 6 | 34.2 | 3.38 | 0.981 | 128 | 2.6 | 6.0 |
| Career | 9-11 | 36 | 183.0 | 4.52 | 1.295 | 91 | 3.0 | 6.3 | |
What you are looking for in a pitcher will either make you want to pass on Manning or try to add him to your roster. That is because despite being a former first-round draft selection, Manning has shown he is not going to be the ace of the staff.
What He DOESN’T Do Well
If you are looking for a pitcher who will rack up the strikeouts, Manning is not your man. For his career his K/9 rate is 6.3.
He has a decent fastball, averaging 93 mph, but it is not an overpowering pitch that produces a lot of strikeouts. Opposing batters have a 15% Whiff% against the fastball and it was 18.4% last season and 16.8% in 2021.
What He DOES Do Well
So, Manning doesn’t rank up a lot of strikeouts. In leagues that use K/9 as a stat, that can be problematic. But while Manning doesn’t blow the ball past hitters, he also does a good job of keeping batters off base. He limits his walks, averaging 3.0/9 innings during his career and has been under 3.0/9 last season and this year.
In his 183 career innings, he has allowed only 175 hits. Couple that with his low walk rate and you have a pitcher who is not going to kill your WHIP and ERA. Since the start of last season, Manning has a 1.106 WHIP and 3.41 ERA with a 118 ERA+ in 18 starts. In 97.2 innings of work, he’s yielded only 79 hits.
Changing his Approach
Since making his debut in 2021, Manning has relied on his fastball. He threw it 41% of the time in 2021 and 52% of the time last season. And it makes sense for his reliance on the pitch as batters have a career .236 batting average against it, including a .197 average last year.
But Manning is starting to feature his other pitches a little more, something this is needed when you don’t have one overpowering pitch.
The slider is now being thrown 27% of the time and his curveball is thrown 22%. Over the first two seasons the slider was featured 15% and 23% of the time while the curveball was featured 11% and 10.5% respectively.
The results have been great for Manning so far. Opposing hitters are managing a .097 average against the slider with a .226 slugging percentage and a .161 average and .194 slugging percentage against the curve and this three-pitch mix is keeping them off-balanced.
What does all this mean? It means I think Manning would make a nice addition to your staff if you need pitching help. He isn’t going to give you a ton of strikeouts, but otherwise he will post solid numbers that at this time of year are great to add if possible.
Tarik Skubal
| YEAR | TEAM | W-L | GS | IP | ERA | WHIP | ERA+ | BB/9 | K/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Det | 1-4 | 7 | 32.0 | 5.63 | 1.219 | 81 | 3.1 | 10.4 |
| 2021 | Det | 8-12 | 29 | 149.1 | 4.34 | 1.259 | 98 | 2.8 | 9.9 |
| 2022 | Det | 7-8 | 21 | 117.2 | 3.52 | 1.156 | 110 | 2.4 | 8.9 |
| 2023 | Det | 0-1 | 3 | 12.0 | 5.25 | 1.083 | 84 | 2.3 | 10.5 |
| Career | 16-25 | 60 | 311.0 | 4.20 | 1.209 | 99 | 2.7 | 9.6 | |
I like Manning, but if pressed to choose between the two pitchers, I’d want to add Skubal. You can’t judge Skubal based on this season as he has made only three starts – the first of two resulted in zero runs allowed in eight innings of work before being bombed in his last outing with seven earned runs in four innings.
Like Manning, Skubal does a good job of commanding his pitches as he has a 2.7/9 career walks rate. He also does not allow a lot of hits, giving up 283 in 311.0 career innings.
Unlike Manning, Skubal can rack up the strikeouts. His career strikeout rate is 9.6/9 innings. His rate took a hit last season as it dropped to 8.9/9, but that can be attributed to his shoulder issues. So far this season he is striking out hitters at a 10.5/9 clip, a very nice number indeed.
Fastball is Back – and then some!
During his first three seasons, Skubal’s fastball averaged 94.3 mph. But through his first three starts his fastball is averaging 95.7 mph, so there shouldn’t by any concerns with Skubal’s shoulder and ability to throw his fastball.
The fastball also produces a lot of swing and miss. This year it has a Whiff% of 28.8%, which is a career high compared to his first three seasons when it averaged 28.3%, 24% and 25.4% respectively.
Trending in the Right Direction
It is hard to take anything away from Skubal’s debut season in 2020. First, he was a rookie on a bad team (and is still on a bad team). Second, he was pitching in empty stadiums thanks to COVID.
But from 2021 to last season, Skubal was showing the improvement you love to see in young pitchers. The WHIP fell from 1.259 to 1.156 thanks to a drop in his walk rate as well has hits allowed per nine (8.5 in 2021 to 7.9 last year. Despite the tough last outing, Skubal is even better with his walk rate and WHIP this year.
With his strikeout rate back to his normal career level and his ability to limit his walks and hits, Skubal would make a sneaky good addition to your team. The Tigers may limit his innings and thus knock down the number of strikeouts Skubal would add to your staff this season.
However, looking ahead to next year, you would have a very good pitcher on your staff – maybe not an ace, but a solid number two who will help in a lot of areas.
