We’re three weeks into the season and getting a good feel of who some of the surprise players are. A few of these players are fringe prospects – players who have had a good year or two in the minors, maybe in an organization’s top 10 list, but are not on any top 100 prospects lists. But some of these early breakout players are former top prospects who have not lived up to expectations over the past year or two. One of those players is Jarred Kelenic of the Seattle Mariners.
Climbing The Prospect Rankings
Kelenic has been on the radar screen of dynasty owners for years. Coming out of high school he was one of the best pure hitters in the 2018 draft class, leading him to be selected by the New York Mets with the sixth overall pick. He was assigned to the team’s Gulf Coast League team but was soon promoted to the more challenging Appalachian League.
It didn’t take long for Kelenic to hit the top 100 prospect rankings. Baseball America ranked him 68th entering the 2019 season while MLB.com ranked him 56th and Baseball Prospectus ranked him 63rd.
Over the next two years, Kelenic’s stock continued to rise, moving to 11th and then 4th by Baseball America and MLB.com by 2021 and 7th and 6th by Baseball Prospectus.
Creating High Expectations…
| YEAR | LEVEL | G | AB | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-22 | Minors | 289 | 1,140 | 56 | 203 | 50 | .295 | .369 | .540 |
| 2021 | Mariners | 93 | 337 | 14 | 43 | 6 | .181 | .265 | .350 |
| 2022 | Mariners | 54 | 163 | 7 | 17 | 5 | .141 | .221 | .313 |
| 2023 | Mariners | 17 | 58 | 4 | 8 | 3 | .310 | .385 | .603 |
| TOTAL | 163 | 554 | 25 | 68 | 14 | .183 | .265 | .366 |
After the Mets selected him with that sixth overall pick in 2018, he proceeded to slash .286/.371/.468 across two levels of Rookie ball at the age of 18.
In 2019 he slashed .291/.364/.540 with 23 homers, 68 RBI, and 20 steals across three levels, finishing the season at Double-A. He started the 2021 campaign in Triple A and hit nine homers with 28 RBI while slashing .320/.392/.624 in 30 games, earning a promotion to the Mariners.
Overall, Kelenic has been outstanding in the minors, averaging a home run every 20.4 at-bats, driving in an average of one run every 1.7 games (that would be 114 RBI over 162 games), and slugging .540.
…But a Failure to Launch
So when the Mariners recalled Kelenic in 2021, Seattle fans were thrilled. However, that excitement soon turned into frustration. In 93 games during the 2021 season, he did hit 14 homers and drive in 43 while stealing six bases, but he also slashed .181/.265/.350 with a 28.1% strikeout percentage.
The 2022 season was even worse. Hitting just .140 in early May, the Mariners sent Kelenic back to Triple-A and kept him there until the end of July. Upon his return, he hit .074 with 11 strikeouts in 27 at-bats, earning him a return trip to the minors until being recalled in late September.
Overall, in 54 games, he slashed .141/.221/.313 with seven home runs and 17 RBI and a 33.7% strikeout rate.
A Great Start to 2023
The start of the season has gone well for Kelenic, and what a difference it has been for him compared to the last two seasons. Through Thursday he was slashing .310/.385/.603 with four home runs, eight RBI, and 3 steals. And his power display has been off the charts.
He hit this massive home run against the Cubs in Wrigley, traveling 482 feet with a 111.7 mph exit velocity. He hit two other homers against the Cubs that series that traveled 414 feet with a 111.1 mph exit velocity and a 415-foot homer that left the bat at 107.2 mph.
Perhaps Kelenic is finally living up to the hype that has surrounded him for years. It’s not like he quietly came into the Seattle organization. Instead, he was the headline player the Mariners received in the trade that sent Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz to the New York Mets ahead of the 2019 season.
Then vs. Now
Why the success for Kelenic so far? Well, one of the differences is his better command of the strike zone. Right now his chase rate stands at 22.1% compared to 28.2% last season and 29.4% in 2021. One can say that he is not being as aggressive at the plate, thus reducing his chase rate. But that is not entirely the case. His first pitch swing percentage is down, coming in at 27.7% compared to 30% the last two seasons, and his overall swing percentage is down, moving from 47.6% and 48.5% to 45% this year. But those are not significant changes.
What is really helping is the fact he is hitting the ball more. His Whiff percentage has dropped from 33.3% last season (and 26.9% his rookie year) to 22.2%. By making more contact, it stands to reason his batting average (and OBP) are going to increase as will his power numbers.
As a rookie, Kelenic hit .215 against fastballs, .161 against breaking balls, and .125 against offspeed pitches. Last season his numbers weren’t much better – .190 vs. fastballs, .057 vs. breaking balls, and .154 against offspeed.
This season is a different story. Against the fastball he is hitting a whopping .400 and his batting average on offspeed pitches has jumped to .286, though he is still struggling against breaking pitches with a .125 batting average with swings like this.
And while it is still very early, he is having success against lefties. For his career, he is slashing .168/.238/.270 against lefties. But entering Friday he is slashing .364/.417/.727 with a home run and three RBI and only one strikeout in 12 plate appearances.
Is This For Real?
So, has Kelenic turned the corner? Are we finally seeing the super prospect version of Kelenic or will he revert to the prospect-turned-bust version we have seen the last two years?
Kelenic has shown his ability at times during his brief career. Through his first 164 games he has hit 25 homers and driven in 69 runs while stealing 14 bases. Without knowing his slash line, that is a pretty solid player and one you would want on your dynasty team. The problem is that his slash line during that time is .183-..265/.366 for a career OPS of .630 and OPS+ of 78.
Will Kelenic keep this current pace up? Probably not. I seriously doubt he is going to go from .183 career hitter to hitting .300 this season. In fact, over the last seven days, he is slashing .238/.333/.429. But that is just a seven-day snapshot just as the first three weeks are just a snapshot of what the entire season will bring.
But that doesn’t mean he is going to crater either. I think he has finally figured things out and made the needed adjustments at the plate to be successful this season. He is a little more upright in his stance and adjusted where his hands to be a little lower when he loads, setting him up to be in a better position to control the bat through the zone.
Go Get Him
Right now he is rostered in 84% of Yahoo leagues and 48% of ESPN leagues, an increase of 26.5% over the last seven days. So he is getting a little harder to acquire on the open market, and trading for him is probably a little more expensive right now as well due to his hot start.
Still, while I fully expect him to cool down a bit, I don’t expect him to fall off a cliff and be the player he was the past two seasons. He simply has too much talent. If you can get him, go get him. There will likely still be some bad slumps, but he appears to have things figured out finally and would be a solid addition to anyone’s dynasty team.
Thanks for reading and come back next week when I take a dive into Zach Neto and Brett Baty.
