When putting together a dynasty team, you should always have a blueprint for how you want to build that team and maintain it. But that doesn’t mean you sometimes make exceptions to those plans.
I tend to shy away from young pitchers because they are so volatile as they get their feet wet on the major league level. But some pitchers quickly show they deserve a spot on your roster. Hunter Brown is one of those pitchers.
I had Brown ranked at 198 in the preseason Top 200 Dynasty Keepers, so his performance is not a total shock. However, he is making me eat my words about avoiding young pitchers until they are proven. While he has only two full months of major league experience along with a month of postseason experience, he has more than shown that he can get major league hitters out.
Very Good, Not Great
Brown didn’t race his way to the majors. After not being drafted out of high school, the right-hander went to Wayne State University in his hometown of Detroit. While there he showed off his great fastball but also his propensity for not being able to command the strike zone.
In three seasons at Wayne State he appeared in 41 games and made 25 starts, going 14-3 with a 3.33 ERA. He had an outstanding 10.0 K/9 rate, whiffing 178 batters in 159.2 innings of work while allowing only 139 hits. But he also walked 72 batters, or 4.1 per nine innings, and had a 1.322 WHIP.
Obviously, scouts weren’t demanding that Brown be drafted as he lasted until the Astros selected him in the fifth round in 2019. Perhaps the fact Brown went to a small college instead of a power school played a part in him dropping to the fifth round. But it appears the Astros struck gold in Brown.
Hunter Brown
| Year | W-L | G/GS | IP | SO | ERA | WHIP | BB/9 | K/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2-0 | 7/2 | 20.1 | 22 | 0.89 | 1.082 | 3.1 | 9.7 |
| 2023 | 3-1 | 6/6 | 34.2 | 36 | 2.60 | 1.183 | 3.9 | 9.3 |
| MLB Career | 5-1 | 13/8 | 55.0 | 58 | 1.96 | 1.145 | 3.6 | 9.5 |
A Slow Start
After signing with the Astros, Brown was sent to Tri-City (Low-A level) and appeared in 12 games with six starts, finishing 2-2 with a 4.56 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. His “stuff” was outstanding as he had a 12.5 K/9 rate. But he also had a 6.8 BB/9 rate, issuing 18 walks in 23.2 innings.
After COVID wiped out the 2020 season, Brown pitched at Double-A Corpus Christi and Triple-A Sugar Land. Like his time in A ball, Brown racked up the strikeouts. At Corpus Christi, he fanned 76 hitters in 49.1 innings (13.9 K/9) but walked 29 (5.3 BB/9) to go with a 4.20 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. But the Astros liked what they saw and wanted to push Brown, so they promoted him to Sugar Land. There he went 5-1 in 11 appearances (eight starts) with a 3.88 ERA. His strikeout rate dipped to 9.7/9 IP but his walked rate also dropped, coming in at 3.7/9 IP.
Gaining Momentum
Hunter Brown started the 2022 season at Sugar Land and continued to build on what he did there in 2021. Appearing in 23 games and making 14 starts, Brown dominated Pacific Coast League hitters, going 9-4 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.085 WHIP. In 106 innings, he allowed only 70 hits and issued only 45 walks (3.8 BB/9) while striking out 134 for an 11.4 K/9 rate.
With nothing left to prove at Triple A, the Astros recalled Brown to see what he could do over the final month of the season. He made his major league debut on September 5 against the Rangers, hurling six innings of shutout ball with three hits, one walk, and five strikeouts. He got another start eight days later and limited Detroit to two runs on five hits and two walks in six innings, striking out six.
Success Out of The Pen
| ROUND | W-L | G/GS | IP | SO | ERA | WHIP | BB/9 | K/9 |
| ALDS | 0-0 | 2/0 | 3.0 | 1 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| ALCS | 0-0 | 1/0 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 27.0 | 0.00 |
Knowing Brown wasn’t going to be a starter in the postseason, his final five appearances game out of the pen. In 8.1 innings of work, he did not allow a single run while yielding only seven hits and four walks while striking out 11. Overall, he finished the regular season with a 9.7 K/9 rate and a 0.89 ERA, and 1.08 WHIP in 20.1 innings of work.
The Astros loved what they say from Brown and added him to the postseason roster. He appeared in two games against Seattle in the Division Series and in one game against the Yankees in the ALCS, allowing no runs in 3.2 innings.
Slotting Right In
With Justin Verlander no longer in Houston and Lance McCullers starting the season on the disabled list, there was no doubt Brown was going to start the season in the rotation, and there is no reason to think he won’t remain there all year. Overall, Brown is 4-1 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.183 WHIP.
Nearly all the damage against him has come in two outings. He allowed four runs in 4.2 innings in his first start of the season vs. Detroit and four runs, all in the first inning, against Atlanta in 4.2 innings. In his other four starts, he has allowed only two earned runs in 25.1 innings with 24 strikeouts
Nasty Stuff
| PITCH | THROWN | MPH | AVG | XBA | SLG | XSLG | Whiff% |
| Slider | 200 | 91.9 | .234 | .261 | .277 | .321 | 29.4 |
| 4-Seamer | 180 | 95.8 | .258 | .313 | .355 | .500 | 17.6 |
| Curve | 179 | 83.4 | .171 | .158 | .195 | .197 | 26.2 |
| Split | 14 | 88.9 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 66.7 |
Hunter Brown features three above average pitches and is working on a fourth. His fastball averages 95.8 mph and rides high in the zone, though it is the pitch opposing hitters are taking advantage of the most to the tune of a .258 batting average. Once Brown gets ahead in the count, he can unleash a wicked slider that comes in at 92 mph and has a 29.4% Whiff percentage or a curveball that averages 83.4 mph, breaks 11 percent more than the average curve and has a 26.2% Whiff percentage.
The fourth pitch he is working on is a split-finger fastball. He’s thrown it only 14 times, but batters are hitting .000 against the pitch with a 66.7% whiff rate. Put all these pitches together and Brown limits hitters to a 3.5 barrel percentage this year and 4.4 for his career – the MLB average is 6.8%.
Go Get Him
Hunter Brown’s WHIP has been under control for most of the season, though his five walks allowed in his last outing wasn’t a thing of beauty to see. But he is maintaining a great strikeout rate and he doesn’t seem to crumble when things don’t go as planned. In that outing against Atlanta in which he gave up four runs in the first, he could have easily lost his composure. Instead, he shut down a very good Braves offense the rest of his outing, allowing the Astros to rally and win the game in the ninth.
Right now he is rostered in 70.2% of ESPN leagues, up 15.3% over the last week. But the fact that he is still available in 30 percent of ESPN leagues is shameful. Yahoo owners are more on board with Brown as he is rostered in 89% of its leagues. If Brown is somehow a free agent in your league, grab him and keep him for years to come.
If there is a chance for you to add him via trade, make the deal. It may cost you an experienced player, but we are talking about dynasty league baseball, and Hunter Brown will be a pitcher you will be able to count on for years to come.
