There are certain players who you know are top dynasty keepers, they are an obvious choice. Take for example Elly De La Cruz in Cincinnati or Josh Jung with the Rangers. Then there are the players who slowly work their way into the conversation of being a top dynasty keeper.
This week, we are going to focus on both types of players – and both of them are pitchers for the Miami Marlins.
Eury Perez is the obvious choice as a top fantasy keeper. A former top 20 prospect, he is dominating the competition at this point of the season.
The second player is Braxton Garrett, a former top 100 prospect who kind of fell off the radar. But given a chance to cement a spot in the Marlins rotation this year, Garrett has proven to be a solid pitcher and one worthy of being considered a top fantasy keeper.
Let’s get right to it and dive into a deeper look at Perez and Garrett.
Eury Perez
| YEAR | TEAM | W-L | GS | IP | ERA | WHIP | BB/9 | K/9 | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | A|A+ | 3-5 | 20 | 78.0 | 1.96 | 0.885 | 3.0 | 12.5 | 4.15 |
| 2022 | A|AA | 3-3 | 18 | 77.0 | 3.97 | 1.143 | 2.9 | 12.9 | 4.40 |
| 2023 | AA | 3-1 | 6 | 31.0 | 2.32 | 0.806 | 2.6 | 12.2 | 4.67 |
| 2023 | Miami | 5-1 | 9 | 47.0 | 1.34 | 0.979 | 2.9 | 10.3 | 3.60 |
Perez was a tall and gangly teenager when he signed with the Marlins out of the Dominican Republic in 2019 for $200,000. Since then, he has grown four inches to now stand at 6-foot-8 while adding 45 pounds to his frame. While he has grown and filled out, the skills scouts saw in him have not diminished at all and have actually improved.
Perez is now a pitcher who has turned his potential to dominate with four pitchers into one who does actually dominate with four above-average pitches. His fastball was sitting in the mid-80s when he signed but now comfortably sits in the upper 90s, averaging 97.5 mph. He also features a slider, curveball, and changeup that are all effective against hitters.
Great Pro Debut
After spending 2020 at the team’s instruction league, Perez burst onto the scene in 2021 at Class A and High Class A as an 18-year-old. He posted a combined 1.96 ERA and a K/BB ratio of 4.15. In 78 innings of work, he allowed only 43 hits while striking out 108 batters and walking only 26 for a 0.885 WHIP.
For his encore in 2022, Perez had a 3.97 ERA, but the rest of his numbers were actually very good. He had a 1.143 WHIP, issuing only 2.9 BB/9 while posting a 12.9 K/9 rate for a 4.40 K/BB ratio. And these numbers are when he was a 19-year-old making all but one appearance in at Double A.
Making the Jump
Thanks to his four-pitch mix and outstanding showing in the minors, Perez entered the season as the 7th ranked prospect by Baseball America, 13th by MLB Pipeline, and 11th by Baseball Prospectus.
Still, the Marlins sent Perez to Double A to start the season. All he did there was dominate opponents. In six starts, he threw 31 innings and had a 0.806 WHIP and 2.32 ERA. Despite his size, Perez has continued to show command of his pitches as he issued only 2.6 BB/9 while striking out 12.2 batters per nine innings. Everyone knew it was only a matter of time before he was promoted, it was just a little surprising that he went straight to the majors and skipped Triple A.
Since joining the Marlins rotation, Perez has been nothing short of amazing and will likely battle Corbin Carroll of Arizona for NL Rookie of the Year. Through his first nine starts, Perez is 5-1 with a 1.34 ERA and 0.979 WHIP – yes, a WHIP below 1.00 against major league hitters at the age of 20. In 47 innings he has allowed only 31 hits while walking 15 and fanning 54 for ratios of 2.9 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9.
Pitch Breakdown
Despite being only 20 years old, Perez already pitches like a veteran. While he has that fastball that is averaging 97.5 mph, he does not rely on it as much as one would expect. He features it only 45% of the time, limiting opposing hitters to a .268 average but with a .524 slugging percentage as all four home runs he has surrendered have come against the fastball.
But while the fastball has been somewhat hittable, his slider, curve, and changeup have been simply outstanding. Throwing his slider 28 percent of the time, hitters have only a .148 average and .222 slugging percentage against the pitch with a 42.7 Whiff%. His slider doesn’t blow people away with amazing movement, but it comes in at 86.5 mph from the same arm slot as the fastball, making it a very tough pitch to recognize.
Then comes the curveball, which averages 81 mph. Thrown 15 percent of the time, opposing hitters have only a .048 average and slugging percentage against it with a hefty 60.4 Whiff%. Perez also throws his 90 mph changeup (yes, a changeup that is better than some pitchers’ fastballs) nearly 12 percent of the time and it has been unhittable – literally. Opposing hitters are 0-for-13 against the change with a 53.1 Whiff%.
Lots of Red
So with the four above pitches, does anyone not understand why he is so dominant so far in his career? But in case you like pretty pictures, look at the chart above. While he is below average in Average EV and HardHit%, he is way above average in many of the key pitching categories, including K% and Whiff%.
His fastball spin rate is at the top of the chart, so once he can develop a little cutting action to the pitch, it will become an overpowering pitch. And while his curveball has been outstanding, it has a low spin rate compared to the average major league pitcher. If he adds some more spin, it could become an even better pitch.
The Tough Part
Knowing Perez is a top fantasy keeper is one thing. Acquiring him is another. If you already have Perez on your team, congratulations. If not, you still may have a chance to get him on the free agent market, but that chance is running out quickly. Over the last week, Perez has seen his rostered percentage rise from 48.8% to 68.3% in ESPN leagues. Meanwhile, he is rostered in 84% of Yahoo leagues and 86% of Fantrax leagues.
If trying to trade for him, he is obviously hot right now, so the asking price is going to be steep. Don’t pay too much, but if the price is right for you, pull the trigger. Young pitchers are prone to ups and downs, but every dynasty staff needs an ace or three. Perez is that ace.
Braxton Garrett
| YEAR | TEAM | W-L | GS | IP | ERA | WHIP | BB/9 | K/9 | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-22 | Minors | 14-14 | 51 | 244.2 | 3.60 | 1.234 | 3.3 | 9.4 | 2.87 |
| 2020 | Miami | 1-1 | 2 | 7.2 | 5.87 | 1.696 | 5.9 | 9.4 | 1.60 |
| 2021 | Miami | 1-2 | 7 | 34.0 | 5.03 | 1.824 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 1.60 |
| 2022 | Miami | 3-7 | 17 | 88.0 | 3.58 | 1.250 | 2.5 | 9.2 | 3.75 |
| 2023 | Miami | 4-2 | 15 | 81.2 | 3.53 | 1.127 | 1.7 | 10.1 | 6.13 |
| MLB | 9-12 | 41 | 211.1 | 3.88 | 1.311 | 2.7 | 9.5 | 3.47 |
When Garrett was in high school, he was one of the top up-and-coming pitchers in the country. Featuring one of the best curveballs in his high school class, he was a member of the 18U World Cup team in 2015 that competed in Japan and after a dominating performance his senior year in high school, he was drafted by the Marlins with the 7th overall pick in the 2016 draft. With a spot in the Vanderbilt rotation waiting for him, the Marlins enticed Garrett to forgo Vanderbilt by offering an above-slot signing bonus.
A Bump in the Road
Garrett’s professional career did not get off to the same roaring start as Perez’s. After signing, he did not immediately head to the minors as the Marlins pushed his debut back to 2017. When the season started, it didn’t last long as Garrett had to undergo Tommy John surgery after making only four starts. After missing the rest of the season as well as all of 2018, Garrett was back on the mound in 2019, making a solid return on the Class A level before making one start in Double A.
At Class A Jupiter, he posted a 3.34 ERA and 1.229 WHIP with a 10.1 K/9 ratio and allowed only 92 hits in 105 innings of work. The only “negative” was a walk ratio of 3.2 BB/9, though that is not horrible.
COVID didn’t allow Garrett the proper chance to continue improving his craft. Instead of getting a full season of pitching in the minors, he had to train at the Marlins’ alternate site, though he did get a chance to pitch in the majors by making two starts with horrible results – 5.87 ERA and 1.696 WHIP.
Back on the Road to The Show
Baseball was back to normal in 2021, meaning Garrett was able to pitch against competition every week. The Marlins assigned him to Triple A Jacksonville where he made 18 starts and went 5-4 with a 3.89 ERA and 1.226 WHIP. In 85.2 innings of work, he fanned 9.0 hitters per nine innings with a 3.4 BB/9 rate.
Feeling he was ready for another test in the majors, Garrett appeared in eight games, making seven starts, for the Marlins. But like his first time in The Show, Garrett struggled against major league hitters. He posted a 5.03 ERA with a horrid 1.824 WHIP. His strikeout rate, which was always above 9.0/9, dropped to 8.5/9. Meanwhile, Garrett lost command of his pitches as he had a 5.3 BB/9 rate while giving up 11.1 hits per nine innings.
Finding his Command
Since that poor showing in 2021, Garrett has regained his command. In seven starts at Triple A in 2022, he issued only 2.4 BB/9 and 7.3 H/9 en route to a 1.078 WHIP and 3.15 ERA. The Marlins were happy enough with his results to promote him once more, and this time the results were much better.
In 17 starts last season, Garrett was only 3-7 when it came to his record but had a 1.250 WHIP and 3.58 ERA. His K/9 rate jumped to 9.2 while his BB/9 rate was 2.5 with an 8.8 H/9 rate. The success he had last season has carried over into the 2023 campaign.
Through his first 16 appearances (15 starts), he has a 3.53 ERA and 1.127 WHIP, the best of his major league career. His strikeout rate has continued to climb as it now sits at 10.1/9 and his walk rate is down to a very nice 1.7/9. He is putting up these numbers despite a fastball that is barely faster than Perez’s changeup.
Pitch Breakdown
The biggest change for Garrett since his first cup of coffee with the Marlins in 2020 is due to a complete change in his approach to pitching. He has basically ditched his four-seam fastball and replaced it with a sinker while he is throwing his slider more. In 2020, he threw his four-seamer 49.6% of the time and never threw a sinker. In 2021, he started to incorporate the sinker, throwing it 15.6% of the time with his four-seamer dropping to a 33.4% usage rate.
Jump ahead to this season, and the four-seamer is now an afterthought while the sinker is his go-to pitch along with his slider. Entering Friday, Garrett has thrown his sinker 28.4% and his slider 28.1% of the time while the four-seamer is featured only in 5.8% of his pitches thrown. There is a good reason for the four-seamer going the way of the Dodo bird.
While a small sample size in 2020, batters hit .467 against the pitch with a 1.133 slugging percentage. In 2021 and 2022, those numbers were .279/.419 and .250/.531 respectively. This year the average against the four-seamer is .385 with a .769 slugging percentage.
Meanwhile, opponents are slugging only .386 with a .280 average against the sinker and his slider has a batting average against of .190 with a .362 slugging percentage. Garrett has also added an effective cutter (.180 AVG, .360 SLG). And remember the curveball that I said was one of the best in his high school class. It is a pitch that is nearly as extinct as Garrett’s four-seamer.
Since 2020, the curveball usage has dropped from 30.7% to 9.6% this year. And there is a good reason for Garrett sidelining the pitch. The batting average against it was .444 in 2021 with a .722 slugging percentage, followed by .381/.619 last year and .444/.889 this year. Since his debut in 2020, Garrett has gone from a four-fastball/curveball pitcher to a sinker/slider/cutter pitcher.
A Pitcher, Not a Thrower
The Future
He is currently rostered in only 49% of ESPN leagues, but is owned in 70% of Yahoo leagues and 88% of Fantrax leagues. If you have a chance to add him to your roster, I think it would be a wise move and one that will pay off today and down the road.
NOTE: I will be taking the next two weeks off while enjoying a vacation with the family. Top Dynasty Keepers will return on July 22.
