Top Dynasty Keepers – Cristian Javier

Hello, everyone. Welcome back to another week of Top Dynasty Keepers.

Earlier this week we saw the trade deadline come and go, and when the dust settled a host of big-name stars were traded for some big-name prospects. When it comes to Dynasty Leagues, we all love the top prospects. These are the players we all know and follow and try to build our teams around.

But as is often the case, a lot of these top prospects never quite live up to the billing once they reach the majors. If you are a fantasy owner who relies only on taking the top prospects to build your team, then your team could be struggling in the standings.

FINDING THE HIDDEN GEMS

If you really want to succeed in your dynasty league, you must look at young players who may not have ever been a top prospect but have nonetheless been successful in the minors and early in their major league careers. This week we are going to look at one of those players – Cristian Javier of the Houston Astros.

The Astros signed Javier out of the Dominican Republic at the age of 15. Now 25, Javier worked his way through the team’s minor league system before making his major league debut in 2020. Javier never appeared in any Top 100 Prospect lists, and he wasn’t even rated as a top prospect in the Astros system.

Despite not ever reaching top prospect status, Javier has become a key member of the Astros rotation and on fantasy teams everywhere as he is rostered in 85 percent of Yahoo leagues and 89.5% of ESPN leagues.

The success he is having on the mound this year makes it easy to understand why he is rostered on so many teams. The question, however, is should he be a player everyone should keep on their dynasty teams moving forward.

Cristian Javier

After being signed by the Astros, Javier spent his first two professional seasons in the Dominican Summer League and Rookie ball before pitching at three levels of Class A ball in 2017 and 2018. The right-hander then flew through the system in 2019 as he pitched in A, Double-A and Triple-A that season.

No matter where Javier pitched, he was successful. His career ERA in the minors is 2.22 with a 1.029 WHIP. Whether he was starting or coming out of the bullpen, Javier has done two things very well – not allow a lot of hits while racking up the strikeouts. In 377 innings pitched in the minors, he allowed only 5.4 H/9 innings pitched while recording 12.2 K/9.

From the Minors to the Majors

Javier earned a spot in the Astros rotation during the 2020 COVID season and finished the year third in Rookie of the Year voting. In 12 games, 10 of which he started, he had a 3.48 ERA and 0.994 WHIP. He allowed only 6.0 H/9 with an 8.9 K/9 rate and recording 3.00 K/BB rate.

Javier started last season in the Astros rotation but moved to the bullpen as the team was struggling to find reliable relievers. The move didn’t affect Javier as he increased his strikeout rate to 11.5 per nine innings, allowed only 67 hits in 101.1 innings pitched and even picked up two saves.

Back in the Rotation

After starting this season in the pen, Javier moved back to the starting rotation full-time in May and has been a solid member of the rotation since, with the highlight of his season coming June 25 in Yankee Stadium when the Astros threw a combined no-hitter. Javier went seven innings, allowing only one walk while striking out 13 batters. In his next outing against the Angels, Javier allowed only one hit and one walk in seven innings of work while striking out a career-high 14 batters.

Javier can attribute much of his success to his spin rate, which ranks among the best in baseball. His fastball spin rate ranks in the 81st percentile and his curveball spin rate is in the 92nd percentile. If you know anything about the Astros organization, they love to develop pitchers with high spin rates, so Javier was the perfect pitcher for them to develop.

Mixing His Pitches

Thanks to his high spin rates, Javier throws a 4-seam fastball 61.2% of the time that stays at the top of the zone thanks to 3.3 inches of vertical movement more than the average pitch. The result is a lot of hitters swinging under the pitch at a 27.7% whiff rate.

Meanwhile, he throws two nasty breaking balls – a sweeping slider and curve that both have more horizontal movement above major league average. His slider breaks 15 inches (3.4 inches more than the average slider) while his curveball breaks 13.3 inches (+2.9 inches above average). The whiff rate on his slider is 39.8% and his curve is 28.6%.

In addition to the movement he gets on his pitches, Javier also has a nice change of speeds. His fastball averages 94 mph while he throws his change at 86 mph, his slider at 80 mph and curve at 76 mph. As mentioned before, the fastball sits at the top of the zone. Against righties, Javier uses the slider to attack the outer edge of the zone while his curve is used to attack the bottom of the zone. He also uses an effective changeup to bust righties in on the hands.

Commanding his Pitches

No pitcher is perfect, and the biggest weakness Javier has is his lack of command. While he has racked up the strikeouts, he also has a propensity to issue walks and run up high pitch counts. During his career, he is averaging 3.9 BB/9. When used out of the pen last year, that walk rate has resulted in Javier starting innings from scratch and not with anyone on base to put out a fire.

In 16 starts this season entering Saturday, he has thrown six innings or more only five times. To really reach ace status and lessen the burden of the bullpen, he has to reduce those walks and become more efficient with his innings.

THE VERDICT

If you happen to have Javier on your roster, be happy. While he has had a few rough outings this season, the good has more than outweighed the bad. The Astros lost pitching guru Brent Strom after the 2021 season and many wondered what result that would have on the Astros staff this season, which features four pitchers who are 28-years-old or under.

Instead of regressing, Javier has thrived under new pitching coach Josh Miller. While still throwing a lot of pitches, he has reduced his walk rate this year and is trying to attack the zone more. At only 25, there is a lot of room for future improvement and learning to command his filthy mix of pitches.

Unless there are restrictions on the number of players your league allows you to keep, then without a doubt, Javier should be a keeper on any dynasty team.